My Pep Talk for Those in Keeper Leagues

In his response to my recent post about dumping saves, Joe laments how hard it is in his carryover league.

There is quite a bit of inflation in our league; teams can hold over as many as 13 players (depending on where they finished in the standings) and there are plenty of dump trades that leave losing teams well stocked with cheap holdovers for the following year.

That said, you're right - the value has to be going somewhere. Let's hope I can find it ...

My money league has the same conditions that Joe talks about. Our keeper maximum is 15 (though FAAB and the expiration of long-term contracts make it extremely rare for one owner to keep 15 players), and we have a fairly robust dumping culture as well. I've always considered our inflation rate (20-25%) moderate compared to some leagues I've heard about.

Still, keeper leagues do tend to alter your focus and make much of the advice you see out there virtually worthless. Most mainstream fantasy publications and web sites look at dumping the way an economics professor might look at graft and corruption in business: it exists, but shouldn't be taught as part of the traditional business model (and, yes, I'm thinking about the hilarious scene in the 1986 comedy Back to School where Thornton Melon gives Professor Barbay an education in how business works in the real world, and all the college kids eagerly take notes).

As any of us in Joe's boat know, though, understanding valuation and inflation aren't enough. We have to also have a decent handle on how likely or unlikely it is that we'll be able to field a competitive team in a league like mine or Joe's.

Since my readership has increased by about 67% from this time last year, I thought it would be useful to refer everyone back to this post. I posed one of the most basic questions that every good owner should ask in a freeze league, which is: can you win it all?

One of the greatest failings of many owners is that they fail to look in the mirror in March and ask this fundamental question. Yet another group of owners look at their teams, look at the presumptive favorite heading into the auction, and decide to dump before the auction has even started. I believe this is a loser's mentality and - if you take this approach - you are deciding to lose.

You have to prepare to win every spring. Of course, that doesn't mean you will win...the conditions in keeper leagues often put you on a very slippery slope. But you should enter every season putting yourself in the best position to do so.

Furthermore, you should do whatever it takes to put yourself in that position (short of collusion, of course). Analyze the landscape of your league, and decide if you can compete across eight (or ten) categories. If you can't, decide which category or categories would be easiest to toss overboard. Trade and auction under these assumptions. Adjust during your auction and once the season starts to take advantage of every opportunity.

You might not win. Heck, in my very competitive league I've lost more often than I've won. It's a tough environment out there. But go down fighting. Don't dump until it becomes patently obvious that you have to.

And that's the best advice I can give to any owner.