Monday, March 17, 2008

National League Positional Battles...March 17 Edition

First off, I would like to apologize to those of you who ran out on Sunday and purchased Colby Rasmus in your auction. I, of course, purchased him in the CBS Sportsline N.L. Auction, and now need to replace him. I will likely write something about the Cardinals outfield before all is said and done, but the emergence of Rasmus would have been the primary thrust of the entry. Brian Barton and Ryan Ludwick do not excite me much, and we are left with the hope that the Cardinals will follow our logic and return Rasmus to the major leagues quickly. This following set of San Francisco Giants players doesn't excite me much either:

Fred Lewis, Rajai Davis, Nate Schierholtz, Dan Ortmeier, Eugenio Velez, Dave Roberts, Justin Leone

Before I enter into this position battle, let me explain why Ortmeier and Velez are in this mix. Both of them have taken a lot of balls in the outfield, both last season and this season, and both of them are looking at bench roles. Therefore, while I will mention them again below (teaser for the infield version of the fire drill known as the Giants' roster), I group them here banking on the potential stupidity of the Giants to put one or both of them in the outfield with a chance of hurting one or more of their remaining productive teammates.

Let me start with Schierholtz. He is 24. He doesn't strike out much; he walks even less. He has worse than average power, and he doesn't run. In other words, folks, he is not a prospect anymore. He also has one very important thing...minor league options. He will start the season in AAA and, last I checked, that means he should not be on your roster come auction day. He should remain away from your roster barring emergency.

In the end, this is a position battle without a future, as the outfield of Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn and Dave Roberts, while not exciting, will earn dollars from a fantasy perspective. I had bid limits of $18, $15 and $10 on them, respectively, back in February; only Roberts' bid limit is going to change much based upon rumors that Roberts may be platooned with Davis or Ortmeier.

Here's the rub in the outfield: Davis and Lewis are out of options. Now, if I were the general manager of the Giants (...I would be tarred and feathered in the streets...), I would call around and see who wants the $13 million albatross of the remaining value on Dave Roberts' contract. Since no one would be a taker, I would then likely call the Rays or the Mets and tell them that Lewis or Davis is available for a duffel bag and some bats. Unfortunately, the Giants have done that and could not get a good quality ash bat, or the Giants have not done that and are stuck with those two on the roster.

If I had to put odds on the player with more playing time out of that group, I would say Davis. Davis can play center field (his natural position) and does have very good wheels. Rowand will be hurt enough that everyone will get ABs. Lewis might be the better player, and the better hitter, but he seems destined for the bench once again. The good news is that the Giants cannot relegate him to the minors again, after he put up a ridiculous .417 OBP in July and early August.

Ortmeier was the man that Davis put on the bench, and, hopefully, he'll stay right there. His power will not translate to the majors (to the extent he has any)...10 HR in 342 AB in Fresno as a 25-year-old does not give us hope. He can, however, play a poor outfield and a mediocre 1B. With Aurilia in the infield and a risk to break at any moment, Ortmeier makes the team.

Velez is the possessor of an interesting statistical anomaly. He stole 11 bases in 24 attempts in three seasons as a Blue Jays farmhand. Since joining the Giants as a Rule V pick in 2005, he has stolen 115 bases in 150 attempts. Anything to get out of Canada. He is a utility man at best, but, like Marlon Anderson, will likely carve out a job as a backup infielder and outfielder (again, a poor outfielder).

This leaves Leone, the forgotten man. He will likely be outrighted before the season starts, and without any good reason. Don't get me wrong: Kevin Frandsen is going to make this team as a utility infielder; he should not be a starting third baseman (as an aside, Frandsen plays a very poor 3B and a mediocre 2B...do you notice the trend?). Baseball Prospectus did not include players like Leone in the mix, but, geez, he's better than Frandsen and is having a much better spring.

The final tally is as follows, and I'll go around the entire lineup since there is so much flux:

Molina:$10
Aurilia:$6
Durham:$11
Vizquel:$6
Frandsen:$2
Ortmeier:no bid
Velez:$1
Rowand:$16
Winn:$14
Roberts:$9
Davis:$7
Lewis:$4

This exercise with the Giants annoyed me enough that the Braves and Astros will have to wait until Wednesday.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Mike,

sorry to go off-topic, but is there a way in Patton's software to adjust the bid prices for a 10-team league? I know he frowns upon this, but I was curious. I found the "adjust formulas based on # of teams" option, i just dont see anywhere to enter the # of teams.

Toz said...

I don't have the software in front of me, but I think if you just enter 10 teams in the "Auction"/"League" section, that will set your number of teams and adjust the numbers accordingly. Hopefully Mike can confirm this for you later today.