Muddling Through Holds

anonymous asks:

What are your feelings about freezing middle relievers in leagues that count holds?

As I mentioned in a prior post, I'm not aware of a valuation system that calculates the value of holds.

That's doesn't mean it can't be done. But I'd be making an educated guess, versus simply plugging numbers into an existing formula.

I wasted a lot of time tonight trying to figure out how I could swap out quality starts for holds using the Rototimes Player Rater, and then running the results. For reasons that are far too complicated to get into here, that won't work.

Instead, let's take a look at how the Patton formulas stretch out 4x4 vs. 5x5 values and see if we can't apply the same stretch to 6x6.

In 4x4, each win in the National League last year was worth 87 cents and each save was worth 62 cents.

In 5x5, each win was worth 51 cents, each save was worth 29 cents, and each strikeout was worth four cents.

6x6 would have to take a little money from wins, saves, and strikeouts and give it to holds. Without getting into how much money to take away from the other three counting categories, let's say that each hold is worth 25 cents. Brandon Lyon's league leading 35 holds in 2007 were worth $8.75. To finally get around to answering your question, holds would certainly have value in your league. And keeping middle relievers would certainly help your cause.

One area where I'm blind, though, is that I don't know what middle relievers typically go for in your league. I also don't know enough about holds to know how predictable they are. Saves are scarcer than wins, but the reason the Patton formula values wins more is that the category is typically more competitive and it's far more likely that a free agent is going to come out of nowhere and save 25-30 games than it is for a starting pitcher to come out of nowhere and win 15-17. Are holds predictable, or do they wildly fluctuate from year to year?

In this case, a better starting point might be your league's bidding history. Do middle relievers typically go for $10-15, or do they slip in at $3-5. Valuation is certainly important, but having the knowledge that holds might make Heath Bell a $30 pitcher doesn't mean you should pay $15 for him if you can get someone comparable who will help you in the holds category for $2.