In a league of my size and budget, should I still shoot for roughly $300 to field a competitive team? It appears that I'm well on my way (with the $162 value estimate you gave), but I wonder if I shouldn't adjust my value to reflect the $11 difference in my budget, versus the standard $260.The answer to this question depends on three factors:
- The strength of your freeze list.
- The strength of other owners' freeze lists.
- The dampening effect inflation will have on #1 and #2.
What you'll need to do is to run through the other 11 teams in your league and figure out who they'll be freezing and what the value of each roster is. Yes, this is a lot of work, but it'll give you a great idea as to what the pecking order is in your league.
I ran this exercise for my money league two years ago to display a situation where one team had an out-of-control freeze list. I've already done this for the same league for the upcoming season; this is a more realistic portrait of where a competitive league typically sits.
| Team | Salary | Value | $ to Spend | Auction Value | Total $ |
| Team 1 | $125 | $196 | $135 | $111 | $307 |
| Team 2 | $113 | $172 | $147 | $121 | $293 |
| Team 3 | $143 | $196 | $117 | $96 | $292 |
| Team 4 | $112 | $145 | $148 | $122 | $267 |
| Team 5 | $117 | $146 | $143 | $118 | $264 |
| Team 6 | $74 | $105 | $186 | $153 | $258 |
| Team 7 | $126 | $144 | $134 | $110 | $254 |
| Team 8 | $100 | $115 | $160 | $132 | $247 |
| Team 9 | $85 | $102 | $175 | $144 | $246 |
| Team 10 | $155 | $147 | $105 | $86 | $233 |
| Team 11 | $83 | $85 | $177 | $145 | $230 |
| Team 12 | $68 | $72 | $192 | $158 | $230 |
| Totals | $1,301 | $1,625 | $1,819 | $1,496 | $3,121 |
The salary column is the combined salary of all of the freezes I am projecting for my league. The value column is my combined value projection for the same freezes. $ to Spend reflects how much money each team has left. These three columns are self-explanatory.
The tricky columns are the last two. Auction Value reflects how much the $ to Spend in the auction will equal in actual Roto value. This is computed by dividing the $ to spend by the total value remaining in the auction ($3,120 minus the Value $ column = $1,625). My projected inflation rate for my league is 21.7%. Divide this number by each team's money left to spend in the auction and you have the Auction Value. Add this to the freeze value and you'll have the estimated post-auction values for every team. (The extra $1 in the final column is due to rounding).
Delving into the data in this chart gives you a good idea of the impact of inflation. Team 10's projected freeze list shows an $8 loss in freezes. However, since Team 10 is only spending $105 in the auction, he's only losing $19. Team 12 has a $4 profit, but he'll lose $34 in the auction since he has a whopping $192 to spend. If both teams match the anticipated inflation rate, Team 10 will actually wind up with a slightly better team.
You are going to have to adjust for your league's $271 budget, though I did try to do that in my previous post. Your league has $132 more than the standard $260 league. You can either complete a linear calculation and multiply every player's value by 1.04 (271/260) or you can do a manual calculation. Since your league uses holds and doubles + triples, I'd recommend the latter.
Try this exercise for your league and you'll have a good idea of where you stand. I'd assume that your team is probably going to be one of the top teams in the league, but I don't know your league as well as you do. If your league's inflation rate is low, you probably have a juggernaut. On the other hand, if your league has a 40% inflation rate, you could very well have a 4th place team.
3 comments:
So if I purchase Patton, I can put the players in and it will spit it out the inflation figure? I ask only becuase I'm going to need to do this in a hurry. My draft is the last weekend in March, and keepers are due two days before that.
Also, what are your feelings about freezing middle-relievers in leagues that count holds? I did an NL-only mock auction last night on fantasyauctioneer, and MI, CI and 3B got thin quickly. I wonder if it's better to drop T. Pena ($5) and trade two non-keeper hitters for a MI or CI. Maybe I could come back and spend $8 on Pena in the auction.
I'd go to alexpatton.com, go to the discussion board and ask about that. I think if you use the bid factors as opposed to the Patton $, it should work as long as your bids add up to $271 x 12, but I know some have had problems with calculating the inflation factor using the software in the past. I prefer doing it in Excel just because I'm more comfortable with how the formulas run there. So I'm not sure what experiences people have had with the Inflation calculator. Toz might actually know better than me; I know he's used it in the past.
I'll try Excel first, since I'm comfortable with it. Thanks, again.
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