Finally, we've reached the pitchers....I've tried to build some suspense by stretching things out. All good things, however, must come to an end.
Rather than do a write up on all 108 pitchers, I am going to pick and choose some starters and relievers...we all know that there are endgame pitchers that always go for less than we expect.
As a general note, let me start here. Starting pitching was spread throughout the draft. Johan Santana and Jake Peavy both went in the first round, John Smoltz went in the second, Brandon Webb went in the third, and then a run started in the fourth round. A couple of relievers went early as well, primarily because I called them out in a feeble attempt to suck money out of the auction. That plan didn't work too well. No closer went for higher than $22, and only three went for over $20.
Santana $44. It is not a challenge for an analyst to discuss Santana. His dominance is becoming legendary. Last year, he was merely the third best starting pitcher in 5x5. What changed? Nothing, except the home run rate. You saw Josh Beckett go through this in 2006, and you saw it from Santana last year. Given that Santana will be pitching to two-three less "hitters" each outing, I do not see how his numbers get worse. Cy Young season...again.
Peavy $39. Peavy just called and chided me for my Santana comment. He has something to say about this Cy Young award. Peavy earned $37 last year in 5x5, but I feel like I earned a profit on him after paying $41 in my money N.L. Interestingly, his BABIP returned to normal levels (.279) after spiking to .307 in 2006. Peavy is no product of Petco: his home/road ERA split is 2.51/2.57. Oh, and one more thing...he is working on his change-up this spring. Yikes.
Webb $31. All of these guys in the top couple went well beyond my prices for a non-inflation league. Webb is only $5 over my price, and I think it has to do with strikeouts. On the other hand, the D'Backs infield defense is pretty good, and Webb last year had a GB% of 63.6%. That makes for a lot of outs, a lot of double plays and not so many HRs. How about 12 HRs? I am a big proponent of getting Santana or Peavy, but do not forget Webb.
Dan Haren $29. Haren in Arizona means two things. First, Arizona has two of the top five starting pitchers on my sheet. Second, it means that Arizona fans will be seeing a lot of souvenirs. Twenty-six, 31 and 24 HRs the last three years in Oakland may not translate well, though a schedule that includes multiple series in L.A., S.D. and S.F. will help a little. Haren's expected PERA last year was 3.66; I do not think you can count on a repeat of his ERA from last year. Something closer to my $23-$24 is a more appropriate bid.
Cole Hamels $27. Again, $6 over my sheet price. It isn't enough. I will let Mike comment on Hamels if he needs to since I am biased on this one, but I think Hamels will challenge Santana and Peavy for the Cy Young Award this year...his interiors are all headed in the right direction, IF he stays healthy.
Brad Penny $18. I skipped a few players, but I want to talk about Penny. For much of his career, Penny has been hurt or collapsed in the second half. Last year, his numbers were more respectable, but his WHIP cannot support the ERA. On the encouraging side, Penny raised his GB% to nearly 51% (an increase of 6%) and lowered his HR total to nine. I think this price is about dead on for Penny, but I am not comfortable going to my bid limit of $17. But $17 may not be enough to get him.
Adam Wainwright $16 Wainwright went lights out at the end of last year, and the touts (and I) are on the Wainwright bandwagon. I actually paid $2 over my bid price (the first CBS player I over payed for), and I anticipate a profit. Thirteen of his last 16 starts last year were quality starts, and his ERA went below 3.00 Post All-Star. I would like to see a better K/W, but that could improve in his second full year as a MLB starter. If you are in a keeper league, you definitely want to pay an extra dollar or two.
Chris Young $22. Young doesn't really excite me; since he went $8 over my bid limit, however, I feel compelled to write about him. An extreme fly ball pitcher in a roomy park with an injury history that has limited his work to less than 180 innings does not bode well; on the other hand, his PERA last year was 0.40 lower than his actual ERA. I think Young will do well, but do not overpay.
Some quick blurbs: Matt Cain $18 Can't beat this price for Cain...it's slightly over my bid limit, but the end of his season last year included a 5:1 K/W rate. The wins won't be there, but the interiors will be. Yovani Gallardo $21. I wouldn't pay $21, but someone in your league will. I keep hearing rumors of leg and arm pain, and that does not bode well for a full season of innings. Tom Gorzelanny $11. He was the first pitcher to go for par on my sheet. He is complaining of arm pain this spring. Do not forget about him; even though he plays for the Pirates, I like the interior numbers. Barry Zito $11 . Is he a risk? Sure. Interestingly, however, his BABIP dropped to .267, and his PERA was 3.80 (compared to his actual 4.53 and EqERA of 4.22). This bodes well for a rebound year from Zito, pitching in the #3 slot behind Lincecum and Cain.
If there are specific questions about a player, please feel free to post or e-mail...I skipped around some in the interest of time. Tomorrow, relievers.
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