CBS Sportsline N.L.: Third Base

I always think this analysis is going to go faster. Thanks for bearing with the lapses in reporting; I still haven't been able to shake this cold.

As a pre-cursor, I identified third base as the position that was "thinnest" in the NL for auction purposes. There are a number of drop offs, and a number of positions up in the air. Therefore, I made up my mind to get a premier third baseman, then get two first basemen.

As you are about to see, that plan worked well. I got two third basemen, neither of which is named Braun or Wright, and one first baseman. Ah, well, the best laid plans.

The cream of the crop: Wright $43; Braun $39.

Had I known the prices for some of the other players, I would have said $44 for Wright without hesitation. His interiors suggest that he has not yet reached his peak, although I would not necessarily count on 30-40 steals again. I cannot take Braun's season away from him - that is a heck of an introduction to the MLB. On the other hand, is there the possibility of regression? Absolutely. It is hard to take power away from someone. On the other hand, the 112/21 K/BB ratio does not instill confidence of a repeat. I think some pitchers will figure him out; I cannot see him hitting .450 against lefties again this year. All in all, I like Wright's price a lot more than Braun's.

The slow and steady: Jones $30, Ramirez $28, Glaus $13, Feliz $9, Wigginton $7, Garciaparra $3

There is a lot of slow in this group. I should have taken the time to add up their collective steals over the past couple of years. I don't like the Jones price; on the other hand, I keep thinking he is going to break down at his age, and then he puts up a year like last year. Ramirez is as steady as she goes; pencil it in. I even like the price. Feliz is intriguing. His numbers at home in SF last year were better than on the road, but how do you not believe he won't hit more HRs in CBP, with its 1.45 HR rating. Wigginton is a wild card in Houston...as a 400-600 AB player, however, he is a consistent earner. He won't run much, but the HR/RBI/R combo is good, and the average is neutral at worst. Garciaparra is certainly worth $3 if he plays (and, in this league, doesn't get traded out of the NL).

That leaves Glaus. This is a pretty simple equation. If he gets 550 AB, he is going to hit 35 HR. Period. He might hit .250 in the process, but you can pen in those HR, and the RBI and runs that go along with them. But 550 AB is the rub. If you take a look at his career, you will have a hard time finding those 550 AB in one season. I bought him at $13 from a potential standpoint...be careful if you are thinking about risking anymore than that (I would likely not have said $15).

The young-uns: Zimmerman $32; Encarnacion $19; Kouzmanoff $15; Reynolds $16; Headley $3; LaRoche $1

I almost fell over when Zimmerman went for $32. He is a young guy who appears to have reached his peak already. That, and the new ballpark in Washington is supposed to be slightly pro-pitcher; an improvement from incredibly pro-pitcher, but probably not what real fans and fantasy fans wanted to hear. Encarnacion is a guy a lot of people are down on - I would love to have him at this price. Kouzmanoff didn't excite a lot of people in the first half, then hit the cover off the ball in the second half. The lack of line drives in the second half gives me cause for concern, but, generally speaking, he may be poised for a breakout. Just don't spend over $15 - you may get burned. Reynolds is an intriguing case; if Tracy is ready at the beginning of the year, the D'Backs need to showcase him, so Reynolds might not play much. If Tracy isn't ready, however, I think Reynolds might not give him the job back. I hear from my AZ sources that the ball just jumps off his bat. I think $16 is way too high in 5x5, but he needs to be on the radar. Headley won't be up this year, so that is merely a tout pick. LaRoche may be up mid-season, and if you have a reserve list, I would suggest stashing him there.

The also-rans: Castillo $3, Tracy $3, Stewart $5, Dobbs $1, Cantu (qualifies at 1B only) $1, McPherson $2.

Not much to say here. Dobbs seems like a waste at $1 in 5x5 since the Phils picked up Feliz. Tracy is a bargain at $3 if he starts the season in AZ. Castillo is competing with Cantu for the 3B job. The bad news is that McPherson is the only lefty and will dominate that side of the anticipated platoon. That means there will not be room for both Castillo and Cantu (and that ignores Amezaga). Good luck to the Marlins - they made a muck of that position.

The analysis: Third base is not very deep, but some things have played themselves out just prior to or after the draft. The D'Backs expect Tracy to be ready. The Marlins are committed to McPherson on the left side of the platoon. The Dodgers are planning on starting Nomar at the beginning of the season (and at 3B, not first). The Phils have Feliz. Braun will be in the outfield, remember, so if your draft is after the season and your position eligibility allows, Bill Hall will qualify there. Oh yeah, one other thing: don't forget Kevin Fransden. At the moment, he is the Giants starting third baseman. On the other hand, that could be Wes Helms or Joe Crede soon.