Sportsline A.L. Results: Starting Pitchers (Part I)

Like I did with the outfielders, I'm going to break the A.L. starting pitchers into two pieces. As a twist, I'm going to break this out into where the pitcher was bought in the Sportsline auction as opposed to by price, which is what I've been doing throughout most of this series.

Round 1: Erik Bedard $27 (12th overall).
Round 2: C.C. Sabathia $26 (17), Josh Beckett $26 (19).
Round 3: Fausto Carmona $20 (27).
Round 4: John Lackey $27 (40), Roy Halladay $24 (41).

Joey Devine was the only other pitcher purchased in the first four rounds, so only seven out of the first 48 slots went to pitching. That's unreal. Thirty-nine percent of a Rotisserie league's roster is devoted to pitching, yet only 14.6% of the players bought early were pitchers. It makes some sense in 5x5, where the dollar values for the top pitchers are typically flatter, but I was still surprised that more arms weren't called out early.

I bought Bedard first. I had him at $29 on my sheet, higher than any other A.L. starter. I can hear the jeers from those over at Patton and Company who don't like him, but I see a pitcher who is either poised for a breakthrough or is going to put together another 180 IP, 200 K year. However, when Sabathia and Beckett went $1 less in the next round, I was having slight buyer's remorse, particularly for C.C. He's gotten his walks down in the last two years, which was the only big bugaboo in his game. His health/weight hasn't been an issue, either. I think Bedard has more upside, but C.C. might have a better chance of earning more. Beckett is great, but he's had some of the same injury woes that people complain about when it comes to Bedard. Will he stay healthy this year? He's done it two years running, but his track record isn't spectacular.

I get the feeling there were some people at the auction who thought $20 was too high for Carmona. His Pre All-Star numbers (3.85 ERA, .277 BAA) jibe far more closely with his K/9 than his lights out Post All-Star stats. I like him, but I do expect he'll put up something closer to that 3.85 this year. With the defection of Johan Santana and Dan Haren to the N.L., Sabathia, Lackey and Halladay are the only pitchers left in the A.L. to put up back to back $20+ seasons in 5x5. Despite his lights-out year last year, I don't like Lackey at this price. He's a good pitcher who pitched above his peripherals last year to put up that 3.01 ERA. A return to the 3.45-3.55 range is more likely this year. Halladay should be OK this year after seeing his mechanics thrown off by appendicitis, but keep in mind that his value takes a huge hit in 5x5. In 2006, he earned $34 in 4x4 but "only" $27 in 5x5, and this was in a peak year. Any slippage at all makes it tough for him to earn back that $24 bid.

Round 5: Justin Verlander $28 (49), Phil Hughes $12 (51).
Round 6: Javier Vazquez $17 (66), A.J. Burnett $15 (69), James Shields $17 (70), Scott Kazmir $26 (71).

A little mini-pitching run finally began in Round 6. Comparing the pitchers in their teens to the first batch of pitchers isn't comparing apples to apples, but I like Verlander and Kazmir less here than I do the $20+ pitchers who went early. Like Bedard, Verlander has serious upside, but I don't think I would have paid him like he's already the belle of the ball. Kazmir's a similar situation, except with a lot more Ks and a much worse WHIP. Someday, he could be the best pitcher in the A.L., but I don't think that someday is now.

I like Shields better than Vazquez at $17 because Vazquez has jumped all over the place while Shields is one of my favorite types of pitchers: a guy with an unreal K/BB ratio whose HRs are mostly of the solo variety. Everyone will complain about A.L. East pitchers that their numbers are killed by facing Boston/New York more on the imbalanced schedule, but Shields held his own against both teams last year. Burnett is a decent gamble at $15; he might never get to 200 IP, but he earned $18 in 165 IP last year and $11 in 135 IP in 2006. You won't lose money here due to ineffectiveness based on his track record. Hughes lacks a track record, but he's obviously a guy to watch long-term. I didn't think he looked like the dominating pitcher in the majors he was advertised to be prior to his call-up, but Hughes is incredibly young yet.

Round 7: Kelvim Escobar $20 (73), Daisuke Matsuzaka $25 (75), Francisco Liriano $15 (81).
Round 8: Felix Hernandez $25 (88), Dustin McGowan $18 (90), Joe Blanton $13 (94), Rich Harden $9 (95), Dontrelle Willis $12 (96).

The buyer's remorse really starts kicking in, as both D-Mat and King Felix sail way past the prices on my sheet. I still like D-Mat a lot, but he's going to need to learn to pitch more economically and not waste so many pitches in the early innings. Too many times, I saw him pitch five good innings surrounded by one or two awful ones. He wore out Post All-Star. Felix's ERA dropped last year, but his BAA and SLG against climbed slightly. There are a lot of theories about why Felix hasn't dominated like he did in his 2005 debut, but you have to cut a 21-year old kid a LOT of slack. But you also have to curb your bids at the moment.

Escobar's injury was announced soon after this auction. Harden's injury hasn't been announced yet, but I have March 14 in my office pool. Liriano's bid seems like the perfect placeholder bid to me. Like Burnett, I think the good news is that you shouldn't lose on this bid due to ineffectiveness but you might lose due to injuries.

McGowan seemed to get better and better as the season went on, and his BAA and peripherals favor a big jump forward this year. Blanton is solid, but I think trade fears and the lack of dominating stuff kept his price down. Willis for $12 strikes me as a huge gamble. I don't know what was wrong with him last year, but he looked terrible. Going to Comercia might keep the ERA low but I don't think it will help the WHIP.

Round 9: Curt Schilling $9 (97), Jered Weaver $20 (98), Zach Greinke $9 (104), Chien-Ming Wang $15 (106).
Round 10: Jeremy Bonderman $16, Mark Buehrle $10 (114), Clay Buchholz $11 (118).

The Schilling/Buchholz buys were made before the Schilling injury announcement. Schill's bid price has to drop to the $1-3 crapshoot, while that $11 bid for Buchholz looks about right. The Red Sox will baby him this year, and TINSTAAPP, but Buchholz is as close as you get to a sure thing as a rookie. I think the Weaver price is high. His BABIP in 2006 was abnormally low, and last year saw a course correction. And I always seem to hear whispers about his elbow. Wang and Buehrle both fit the mold of guys who aren't ideal for 5x5 in terms of strikeouts, but who do put up decent ERA/WHIPs, eat a lot of innings, and get wins. Both don't have high ceilings, but their floors aren't that low either. Bonderman at $16 looks risky to me. He didn't have any surgery last year and his injury wasn't deemed serious, but his collapse last year defied description, even for a pitcher who always seems to lose it in the second half. I like Greinke a lot at this price. In his last six starts, he looked dominant for the Royals. Take those starts with a grain of salt: he was pitching against weak September line-ups and teams that were running for the bus. But Greinke finally is showing signs of putting it all together.

Round 11: Matt Garza $9 (122), Kevin Slowey $8 (123), Gil Meche $9 (127), Mike Mussina $3 (130), Aaron Laffey $3 (131).
Round 12: Jon Garland $5 (133), Tim Wakefield $4 (135), Andy Pettitte $8 (136), Ian Kennedy $5 (137), Brian Bannister $6 (141), Jose Contreras $3 (142).

We've now sunk into single digits on all of the starters bought. Of the veterans here, I like Meche the best at $9. I don't think he's going to get much better, and I don't like the signs of overuse I saw in Kansas City, but he could be a 3.60-4.00 ERA starter consistently for a long time if healthy. Pettitte's bid was probably brought down slightly by the HGH cloud hanging over his head. It's tough to say what effect, if any, the HGH has ever had on his performance, but Pettitte's strikeouts dropped last year, and he's never been a great WHIP pitcher. Garland isn't pretty to watch, but is a consistent positive earner. He had a great finish to last year, and it looks like the knot in his shoulder that was bothering him might be history. Wakefield's slot in the rotation should be secured with Schilling out. He's a boring 5x5 guy, but being in Boston makes him a good wins play. Contreras is a total risk who just looked like a batting practice pitcher last year. I can't blame anyone for not going over this price prior to Spring Training. Same with Mussina, who looked like a batting practice pitcher at times. His 3.49 ERA in September hides the .300 BAA. He's a risk.

Of the young guys, Garza's got the highest ceiling. The numbers haven't caught up to the stuff, but with a guy like this it could happen fast. Of course, it could also never happen. Slowey is a control guy who somehow racked up Ks in the minors anyway. He got beat up last year, and guys like this do tend to take their lumps in the majors a few times before they make it. Bannister surprised everyone last year, but he had the lowest BABIP by far amongst American League qualifiers in 2007. He should regress heavily to the mean, and an ERA over 4 is more likely than not. Kennedy's a solid pitcher, but I don't see him as a superstar. I think he might be headed back to AAA if Joba Chamberlain is moving to the rotation. Laffey is a severe groundball pitcher, but he's got weak stuff, and his upside is Jake Westbrook. His downside is as a Quad-A guy who won't make it.