There's some gruesome pitching lines surely sitting around in the endgame; those with sensitive stomachs might want to stop reading at about Round 17. Keep in mind, though, that Sportsline allow you to reserve active major leaguers at-will. Some of these $1 fliers in the endgame are more a matter of trying to corner the market on high risk/high reward guys before the reserve round started.
Round 13: Brandon McCarthy $1 (147), Scott Baker $5 (148), Jon Lester $8 (149), Shaun Marcum $7 (150), John Danks $4 (152), Andy Sonnanstine $6 (155), Daniel Cabrera $5 (156).
The pitchers started flying off the board now, as the league started catching up to the reality that everyone needs nine pitchers. This is a young group, as most of the vets had already disappeared. Lester's stuff was said to be on a par with Jon Papelbon's when both were coming up through the system. Cancer set him back, and his numbers haven't caught up as a result. Marcum's a guy I worry about due to the high HR/IP, despite the solid Roto numbers last year. I think the room was worried, too. I don't like Sonnanstine, butI know a lot of people are looking at him as a potential sleeper this year due to the strong minor league numbers. Six dollars is high, though. Baker impressed with a 3.44 ERA Post All-Star, but his BAA actually was .288. I would expect him to post an ERA closer to $4. Cabrera obviously has a lot of upside in 5x5, but he's a WHIP killer who has never mastered his command. Danks is another darling of the sleeper crowd, but in the game or two I saw him in last year, he looked like he had nothing but the fastball. He's going to be a work in progress in the majors. McCarthy at $1 is a nice flier. Yes, he pitches in Arlington, but his stuff is still good no matter where he pitches. One problem is that he's a flyball pitcher in a park that's not conducive to that.
Round 14: Jeremy Guthrie $6 (157), Chad Gaudin $3 (161), Kevin Millwood $4 (165), Ervin Santana $7 (167), Jarrod Washburn $2 (168).
I think Santana's high at $7, and I'm not sure he'll even start the year in the majors if he's still working out his mechanical kinks. He's definitely got more upside than Joe Saunders, but Santana looked lost last year on the hill. Guthrie came out of nowhere to earn $15 last year. He bombed in the second half, and I'd put his stock higher if his minor league pedigree had been stronger. Millwood's got some positive value in his five-year salary scan, but I think he might be finished as a starter. He seemed to be recovering for a while in the second half, but tanked with a .336 BAA in September. Gaudin also tanked in the second half, and that's an understatement. Billy Beane says that Gaudin might have the best raw stuff on the team outside of Rich Harden, so Gaudin might be worth the flier. Washburn is an unsexy 5x5 pitcher due to the low K totals, but he'll put up OK ERA/WHIPs and grab a few wins. He's fine even as high as $4-5.
Round 15: Boof Bonser $4 (171), Carlos Silva $2 (172), J.P. Howell $1 (175), Jake Westbrook $7 (178).
Round 16: Miguel Batista $6 (183), Kason Gabbard $2 (187), Kenny Rogers $2 (189).
We're not quite at the odds and ends phase of the auction, but things are getting a lot thinner. Westbrook is a groundball pitcher who isn't dominating enough to keep enough men off base for that to be a huge factor in his numbers. Too often he's the victim of a bad inning where his sinker is flat and he's got nothing. Batista somehow won 16 games and put up a 4.29 ERA despite that 1.52 WHIP. This is a guy I'd rather let go in the crapshoot or buy in leagues where I can reserve him and play match-ups. Bonser really regressed last year, and was a BP pitcher against lefties. He was a top prospect at one point, but so were a lot of other guys. Rogers has been pretty successful when he's been healthy, but he's 43 years old and the odds of health diminish at his extreme point on the age curve. Silva had a decent year last year, but he's a pretty hittable pitcher who isn't pretty to watch. Safeco has a reputation as a pitchers' park, but the Metrodome hasn't exactly been the Homerdome the last two years. Safeco suppresses runs slightly but not as much as the Metrodome did. Silva's 2005-2007 splits: 3.84 ERA, .282 BAA, and 34 HR allowed in 304 2/3 IP at home; 5.24 ERA, .321 BAA, and 49 HR allowed in 266 IP on the road. He had a 3.98 ERA and a .325 BAA in 20 1/3 IP the last three years at Safeco, for what that's worth. I know a lot of people don't like Gabbard, but I think he's a bit of a sleeper, albeit on the wrong team and pitching in the wrong park to get too excited about. Howell probably won't crack the Rays rotation and is going to get passed at some point by all the young arms to Rays have racing up the pipeline.
Round 17: Adam Loewen $2 (194), Brandon Morrow $2 (198), Casey Janssen $1 (199), Nate Robertson $2 (202).
Round 18: Cha Seung Baek $1 (207).
The room is now scarfing up the glut of outfielders left behind in the Stage One feeding frenzy that took place earlier. Morrow was projected as a possible starter before the Erik Bedard trade. He'll go to the pen or AAA. He could be a long-term closer if the M's leave him there, but he needs a lot of work on his command. Janssen is being talked about in the rotation, too, but I see him in the pen at least to start the year. Baek, like Morrow, has no place in the inn, and is starting to look like a Quad-A guy in terms of his role, if not his ability. Loewen should be healthy to start 2008. Good stuff, but still a WHIP risk and he's on a team that won't get a lot of wins. Robertson's ERA was a fluke in 2006 based on his peripherals, and he came crashing back to earth in 2007. He's a 4.50 ERA pitcher who is a fifth starter.
Round 19: Jesse Litsch $1 (218), Jason Jennings $1 (222), Vicente Padilla $1 (223).
Round 20: Troy Patton $1 (234).
Round 21: Paul Byrd $1 (248), Edwin Jackson $1 (251).
I like Litsch long-term, even though the low K/IP tell me that he's due for a consolidation season in 2008. He's got a nasty slider and was incredibly composed for a 22-year old. Jennings is an injury-flier after his mid-season surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. His 2006 numbers showed some progress, so he's not a bad flier at $1, though the range of possibilities is huge. Padilla pitched fairly well after coming off the DL in mid-August after battling through a triceps injury (3.86 ERA, .236 BAA, 4 HR allowed in 39 2/3 IP Post All-Star. He's all over the map, though, and I think when healthy he's more like a bottom of the rotation starter. Patton was part of the return the Orioles got for Miguel Tejada. His stock has generally fallen as a prospect, though John Sickels still likes him and gives him a B+. If I had to guess, I'd say he starts in AAA and works his way up to the O's by mid-season. Byrd at $1 is OK for 5x5, despite the low K totals, but it's a pretty bumpy ride. He fell apart in September, and could always revert back to 2006 form. Jackson is a better reserve flier in leagues where you can't shuttle guys back and forth. His overall numbers last year were awful, but he was not horrible Post All-Star. He's a gamble, but he's also still only 24 years old and he does strike guys out.
Round 22: David Price $1 (262), Joe Saunders $1 (263).
Round 23: Adam Miller $1 (265), Gio Gonzalez $1 (268), Kyle Lohse $2 (270), Cliff Lee $1 (273), Bartolo Colon $1 (274), Justin Duchscherer $1 (275), Gavin Floyd $1 (276).
Here come the long-shots. Saunders and Floyd have the best shot at starting the year in a major league rotation. Saunders is probably a 5th starter long-term. He's always had good minor league numbers, but his stuff is not dominant. Floyd's top prospect status is long gone, and neither his fastball or curve are dominating. He leaves too many pitches flat in the zone in his bad starts and is quite hittable at times. Lee had a strong 2005, but is homer-prone and I can't see him ever returning to that level of performance. Lohse is still unsigned as I write this and has gone from looking for Gil Meche-type money to probably being forced to either sign an incentive-laden one-year deal or a minor league contract. I haven't heard him linked to anyone in some time. Colon is also unsigned, and has not recovered well from last year's elbow injury. His velocity is down and the movement he used to have isn't there. Duchscherer has been a very successful reliever who the A's are thinking about sticking in the rotation. Your guess is as good as mine as to how that will work out. The rookies in this group - Price, Miller, and Gonzalez - might not make much of an impact this year. Long term, Price has incredible upside, but we've all seen highly touted college pitchers go in several directions. Miller's stock keeps falling because of a perpetually bum elbow. Gonzalez is still a good prospect, but his stock has fallen a little due to less than awesome minor league numbers. On the White Sox, though, he could make an impact with questionable options Contreras and Floyd sitting in the rotation at the moment.
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