Saturday, January 12, 2008

FAAB: Adjusting for Reserve Lists and Ultra

One of the most popular features I introduced last year was that of a FAAB review. Unlike Tim Dierkes' column at Rotoworld, which speculated about how much FAAB players would go for in single-league or mixed-league formats, my articles included data from real leagues, giving owners some idea of what players would go for in leagues with similar formats.

One significant drawback to these articles was the fact that both leagues I was profiling did not have reserve lists. As anyone who has played in a league with reserve lists knows, having even a limited "taxi squad" of major leaguers can have a significant impact on the players who are available as free agents.

Today, I'll take a look back at the FAABed players in my league, compare this with the LABR expert league, and ascertain whether these players were a)already on an active roster b) on a reserve roster or c) also FAABed in LABR.

"Regular" League FAABed players: April 16
Date
PlayerFAAB $
LABR
FAAB?
If yes,
FAAB $
If no,
Outcome?
4/16
Joakim Soria
$20
No

Reserve
4/16
Shaun Marcum
$5No

Auction $1
4/16
Steve Trachsel
$5No

Reserve
4/16
Carlos Pena
$3Yes (4/30)
$21

4/16
Wil Ledezma
$2No

Reserve
4/16
Sean Henn
$2Yes (4/23)
$5

4/16
Luis Rodriguez
$2Yes
$1

4/16
David Aardsma
$1Yes (4/9)
$4

4/16
Matt Thornton
$1No

Reserve

My A.L. auction is the Saturday after Opening Day and the first FAAB period is the Monday after that. That leaves two long weeks where you can't replace a bad pitcher. So it's not surprising that seven of the nine moves on April 16 were to replace pitchers. However, in a league with a reserve list, six of the seven pitchers we chose would not have been available in LABR. Only Henn was still sitting around on 4/15.

It seems like LABR waited too long to grab Pena, but his April line was 4/13/0/.213 in 47 AB. He didn't exactly look like a world-beater back then.

"Regular" League FAABed players: April 23
Date
PlayerFAAB $
LABR
FAAB?
If yes,
FAAB $
If no,
Outcome?
4/23
Matt Kata
$7
Yes (4/16)
$6

4/23
Josh Towers
$5Yes (4/9)
$23

4/23
Brian Bruney
$2Yes (4/16)
$1

4/23
Pablo Ozuna
$2No

Reserve
4/23
Chris Gomez
$1No

Reserve
4/23
Brendan Harris
$1Yes (4/1)
$3

4/23
Mike Myers
$1No

Not owned
4/23
Andy Sisco
$1No

Not owned

The $23 bid on Josh Towers seems silly, but in a league with reserve lists this kind of bid isn't silly at all. Fewer players in the free agent pool mean fewer options for owners early in the season and down the line. $23 for Towers and $21 for Pena have less to do with the expected return on these players and more to do with the scarcity of free agent talent.

M A.L. doesn't exactly have its pick of a strong freeze agent pool either. Seven bucks for Matt Kata? That's $1 more than the $6 LABR paid the week before, and is not an indictment of either owner who paid this price, but a reflection of the reality that the free agent pool in April is thin in both leagues.


"Regular" League FAABed players: April 30
Date
PlayerFAAB $
LABR
FAAB?
If yes,
FAAB $
If no,
Outcome?
4/30
Cha Seung Baek$10
No

Reserve
4/30
Ryan Langerhans
$5Yes
$6

4/30
Tomo Ohka
$3No

Auction $1*
4/30
Alex Cora
$2No

Reserve
4/30
Lenny DiNardo
$1Yes (5/28)
$4

4/30
Matt Guerrier
$2Yes (4/23)
$1

4/30
Brandon Duckworth
$1Yes (6/11)
$6

4/30
Sal Fasano
$1Yes (5/7)
$3

4/30
John McDonald
$1Yes
$7

4/30
John Parrish
$1Yes (4/16)
$2

4/30
Josh Paul
$1Yes (4/9)
$1

4/30
George Sherrill
$1No

Reserve

*purchased at auction for $3 and waived on 4/15.

Already, we can see that the reserve lists are less and less helpful. No one thought to use a reserve pick on John McDonald, and that cost some owner $7 in LABR at the end of April. The prices LABR pays, despite the existence of reserve lists, are
more than my league paid, not less.

If you can't bid on Alex Cora, John McDonald suddenly becomes the only game in town. It's not like the Cora market or the McDonald market is all that appealing. But supply and demand, even in a battle for scrub middle infielders, has an impact.

This works both ways, though. Baek goes for $10 because he clearly has a much better chance of providing positive earnings, both in the eyes of LABR, which thought enough of him to spend a reserve pick, and my league, where at least one owner thought 1/10th of his FAAB was worth spending. The fact that Baek didn't work out isn't the point; the point is that the opportunity at picking up a quality starter outweighed the risk in both cases.

I'm going to look at the free agents FAABed in LABR and the impact in the other direction in my next post.

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