Sunday, January 13, 2008

FAAB: Adjusting for Non-Reserve Lists

In my last post, I looked at my non-expert A.L. league and compared the FAAB bids in LABR to see how having reserve lists (versus farm players only) might impact the free agent pool. Today, I'll look at that phenomenon in reverse.

LABR FAABed players: April 16
Date
PlayerFAAB $
BABG
FAAB?
If yes,
FAAB $
If no,
Outcome?
4/16
Matt Kata
$6
Yes (4/23)
$7

4/16
Josh Rabe
$6Yes (5/7)
$1

4/16
Ryan Braun
$2No

Auction $1
4/16
John Parrish
$2Yes (4/30)
$1

4/16
Jae-Kuk Ryu
$2No

Not owned
4/16
Brian Bruney
$1Yes (4/23)
$2

4/16
Miguel Cairo
$1No
$1
Opening Day
injury pick-up
4/16
Casey Jannsen
$1No

Auction $1
4/16
Luis Rodriguez
$1Yes
$2

4/16
Chris Stewart
$1No

Not owned

Looking at this chart in reverse, I expected to see fewer FAAB bids early on from LABR. However, they actually purchased one more player via FAAB than my non-reserve league (BABG in the chart) did on April 16. Some of their claims seem even more desperate. Despite our lack of a reserve list, we were able to wait a week on Kata, and Rabe doesn't pique our interest until May, and even then only for a limited bid. It's possible that the limited supply of free agents is what's causing this relatively aggressive bidding strategy.

Miguel Cairo was picked up in an odd rule my A.L. has regarding injured players auctioned on Opening Day. Rather than waiting until Monday and going through the customary FAAB process, owners either must spend $3 on a replacement or wait two weeks until the first reporting period two Mondays after the auction. It's a rule that either forces you to overspend on Miguel Cairo or sit with zero stats for two weeks.

But that's what that weird designation for Cairo means.

LABR FAABed players: April 23
Date
PlayerFAAB $
BABG
FAAB?
If yes,
FAAB $
If no,
Outcome?
4/23
Sean Henn
$5
Yes (4/16)
$2

4/23
Kameron Loe
$3No

Auction $1
4/23
Julian Tavarez
$3Yes (5/7)
$1

4/23
Josh Phelps
$2

Auction $1
4/23
Chris Reitsma
$2No

Not owned
4/23
Jamie Burke
$2Yes (5/7)
$1

4/23
Jamie Walker
$1Yes (5/21)
$1

4/23
Matt Guerrier
$1Yes (4/30)
$2

4/23
Vicente Padilla
$1No

Frozen $4

There is a pretty decent match between the two leagues, but LABR is still paying a little more for most of these guys and is also buying them earlier. They're also waiting a little longer on Loe and Phelps, who were bought at auction in my league.

But, again, you have to look at the quality of players being purchased here. The surprising thing isn't the number of players being shuttled in by LABR, but by the number of bids over $1. Jamie Burke was an OK second catcher in A.L.-only leagues this year, but if I bid $1 and didn't get him, I'd live with the zeros at the position for another week.

LABR FAABed players: April 30
Date
PlayerFAAB $
BABG
FAAB?
If yes,
FAAB $
If no,
Outcome?
4/30
Carlos Pena
$21
Yes (4/16)
$3

4/30
John McDonald
$7Yes
$1

4/30
Ryan Langerhans
$6Yes
$5

4/30
Chad Durbin
$4Yes (5/7)
$4

4/30
Dallas Braden
$3No

Not owned
4/30
Doug Mirabelli
$2No

Auction $1
4/30
Josh Rabe
$1Yes (5/7)
$1

4/30
Brendan Donnelly
$1No

Opening Day
injury pick-up
4/30
Omar Infante
$1No

Auction $1
4/30
Jamie Walker
$1Yes (5/21)
$1

4/30
Scott Downs
$1Yes (5/21)
$1

4/30
Mike Rouse
$1No

Not owned

I thought that LABR would have fewer claims and spend less money because of their reserve list system, at least early in the year. As it turns out, the opposite is true. These are small differences, but the $6 extra spent on John McDonald is $6 less someone will have to chase after Roger Clemens or Kevin Slowey later.

Except there's the rub. Clemens was purchased for $7 in LABR's auction. Slowey was picked up on reserve.

Spending $21 on Pena, $7 on McDonald, or even $2 on Mirabelli looks like folly. That is, until you realize that guys like Clemens and Slowey simply won't be available down the road. As I've said in previous posts, we didn't know in April if or when Kevin Slowey would be up. But we did know that guys like Slowey would be up at some point, so we knew that we'd have to hold back some of our money to get him.

Clemens went for $80 in my A.L., while Slowey went for "only" $19. Out of the $1,200 of available FAAB, that's 8.25% of our budgets right there.

But that's also another $99 that leagues with reserve lists will have to spend elsewhere.

Remember, the goal of FAAB isn't to get bargains. Once the season starts, the idea of getting a bargain is gone. The goal is to get statistics, and to do this you must optimize FAAB to get the best statistics possible.

LABR isn't stupid for spending $7 on John McDonald. They're spending $7 on McDonald because they knew they have to spend their $100 FAAB budgets, and they won't have guys like Slowey or Clemens to spend it on later.

My league isn't stupid for spending $80 on Clemens or $19 on Slowey. We know that we have to spend that money on those types of risks.

But that's also why we conserve our money on the likes of Mirabelli and Rabe.

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