Top 10 N.L. First Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Prince Fielder | $33 | $21 | 7 | $21 |
| 2 | Albert Pujols | $32 | $42 | 1 | $44 |
| 3 | Ryan Howard | $30 | $31 | 4 | $43 |
| 4 | Derrek Lee | $26 | $31 | 3 | $10 |
| 5 | Lance Berkman | $26 | $32 | 2 | $39 |
| 6 | Todd Helton | $23 | $23 | 6 | $20 |
| 7 | Adrian Gonzalez | $22 | $20 | 9 | $22 |
| 8 | Dmitri Young | $19 | $7 | N/A | $4 |
| 9 | James Loney | $19 | R1 | N/A | $4 |
| 10 | Adam LaRoche | $17 | $20 | 8 | $23 |
| Average | $25 | $23 | $23 |
Alex misses the boat on Fielder, but predicting that Howard would lose $12 of value is a great call. He goes against the steady decline on Helton and aces that, and is pretty damn close on Adrian Gonzalez and Adam LaRoche: predicting decline or stagnation on young players does not jibe with conventional wisdom. Besides Fielder, the only really bad prediction here is Young, but I thought $7 was high on Opening Day; Young looked finished in 2006, and I thought he might be out of baseball by June.
Top 10 Predicted N.L. First Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | $32 | $42 | 2 | $44 |
| 2 | Lance Berkman | $26 | $32 | 5 | $39 |
| 3 | Derrek Lee | $26 | $31 | 4 | $10 |
| 4 | Ryan Howard | $30 | $31 | 3 | $43 |
| 5 | Carlos Delgado | $17 | $24 | 11 | $18 |
| 6 | Todd Helton | $23 | $23 | 6 | $20 |
| 7 | Prince Fielder | $33 | $21 | 1 | $21 |
| 8 | Adam LaRoche | $17 | $20 | 10 | $23 |
| 9 | Adrian Gonzalez | $22 | $20 | 7 | $22 |
| 10 | Nomar Garciaparra | $11 | $17 | 15 | $14 |
| Average | $24 | $26 | $25 |
It occurs to me that I've been looking at these numbers and praising or blaming Alex Patton for his projections. This does a major disservice to the fact that, in Stage 3, all projections are virtually the same.
LABR Top 10: Pujols $43, Howard $40, Berkman $33, D. Lee $31, Fielder $28, Delgado $25, Ad. Gonzalez $24, LaRoche $22, Helton $20, Conor Jackson $20.
Tout Wars Top 10: Pujols $43, Howard $35, D. Lee $33, Berkman $32, Delgado $25, Ad. Gonzalez $23, Fielder $22, Helton $22, LaRoche $21, Jackson $20.
The two expert drafts are even more in-sync with their values than they are with Alex, adding Conor Jackson in favor of Garciaparra. Otherwise, there aren't many differences. Clay Davenport gets a big slap on the back for buying Fielder at $28 in LABR, while Bob Radomski at Sandlot Shrink should know better for buying Ryan Howard at $40.
Seriously, though, this is what Stage 3 is all about. If you're not using Alex Patton's projections, you're probably using Sports Weekly's. Or you're using Baseball Prospectus's. Or Sandlot Shrink's. Or another one of the fine experts who participated in LABR and/or Tout Wars.
And all of these projections are extremely similar to one another.
That isn't to say that having Prince Fielder down at $28 on your sheet wasn't a huge advantage, especially if most owners had him in the $21-23 range. If you were lucky enough to get Prince at $24, you turned a tidy profit. Even in 5x5, where he was probably worth a shade less.
The bad news at 1B is that while the production was here, the bargains weren't. Young was UT only on Auction Day in many leagues, and Loney wasn't eligible to be purchased. Fielder might have went for $21 in your league, but chances are that someone had PECOTA in front of them and paid $26.
The good news, though, is that the busts weren't total washouts. If you're the guy who bought Nomar at $17, you certainly weren't happy with $11 of production, but it certainly didn't wipe out your season in and of itself. Same with Delgado's $17 season. There's not a 1B here who was a complete sinkhole.
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