Top 10 A.L. Second Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Brian Roberts | $35 | $24 | 1 | $26 |
| 2 | B.J. Upton | $31 | $8 | N/A | $4 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | $25 | $21 | 3 | $24 |
| 4 | Placido Polanco | $25 | $11 | 7 | $9 |
| 5 | Ian Kinsler | $22 | $17 | 4 | $16 |
| 6 | Aaron Hill | $20 | $6 | 11 | $11 |
| 7 | Mark Ellis | $19 | $4 | 13 | $7 |
| 8 | Dustin Pedroia | $18 | $3 | 15 | ($1) |
| 9 | Howie Kendrick | $13 | $11 | 8 | $13 |
| 10 | Macier Izturis | $12 | $2 | N/A | $14 |
| Average | $22 | $11 | $12 |
In hindsight, this set of predictions seems extremely conservative for what is mostly a group of young, emerging players who typically improve as they mature. Upton, Hill and Pedroia in particular stand out as bid limits that are very low based on each player's ceiling. I know that a few readers here disagree with me, but part of your bid limit should take a player's upside into account, especially in a carryover league. I didn't think Pedroia was going to have an $18 season, but I probably would have pushed him to $7 or $8 had he been available in my league (he was frozen at $10), if only to make sure that someone didn't wind up with an incredibly valuable dump chip down the road. As a rule of thumb, you probably want to make sure to at least price enforce a young player with a starting job to the price he earned the year before. You might not have believed Aaron Hill was going to earn $20, but you sure didn't want to see him go for $7 if he was going to earn $11 again.
Even the veterans here have surprisingly low bid limits. Ellis earned $16 in 2005. Polanco earned $20 that year, while Roberts earned $33. Another good rule of thumb is to split the difference between the two previous years after a down year and go from there. You still might want to discount players like Polanco or Ellis a couple of bucks, but you still would have wound up with a better shot of getting a nice bargain at 2B.
The predicted Top 10 underscores the fact that the Patton predictions were still too conservative when it came to 2B.
Top 10 Predicted A.L. Second Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Brian Roberts | $35 | $24 | 1 | $26 |
| 2 | Josh Barfield | $8 | $21 | 15 | $21 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | $25 | $21 | 3 | $24 |
| 4 | Ian Kinsler | $22 | $17 | 5 | $16 |
| 5 | Tadahito Iguchi | $7 | $15 | 17 | $18 |
| 6 | Luis Castillo | $9 | $12 | 14 | $20 |
| 7 | Placido Polanco | $25 | $11 | 4 | $9 |
| 8 | Howie Kendrick | $13 | $11 | 9 | $13 |
| 9 | Jose Lopez | $8 | $11 | 16 | $14 |
| 10 | Jose Vidro | $15 | $7 | N/A | $10 |
| Average | $17 | $15 | $17 |
Barfield is the only true bust in this group, as both Iguchi and Castillo were traded to the N.L. mid-season. Factor in Iguchi and Castillo's earnings across both leagues (as some leagues do, permitting you to keep players traded to the N.L.), and Castillo earned $17 while Iguchi earned $13, despite sitting on the bench in September.
Let's take a closer look at a few expert and expert auction prices to see how different or similar these groupings are.
American League 2007 Prediction Grid: Second Base
| Name | AP | PK | LABR | Tout Wars | SW |
| Brian Roberts | $24 | $25 | $25 | $25 | $23 |
| Robinson Cano | $21 | $17 | $19 | $22 | $22 |
| Josh Barfield | $21 | $19 | $18 | $21 | $18 |
| Ian Kinsler | $17 | $20 | $20 | $20 | $18 |
| Tadahito Iguchi | $15 | $17 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
| Howie Kendrick | $11 | $10 | $20 | $21 | $20 |
| Luis Castillo | $12 | $15 | $20 | $15 | $11 |
| Jose Lopez | $11 | $13 | $10 | $15 | $12 |
| Placido Polanco | $11 | $12 | $9 | $10 | $12 |
| Aaron Hill | $6 | $11 | $8 | $9 | $12 |
| Jose Vidro | $7 | $10 | $6 | $9 | $11 |
| Mark Ellis | $4 | $7 | $5 | $7 | $8 |
| Dustin Pedroia | $3 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $6 |
PK is Peter Kreutzer, dba as Rotoman. LABR is the Sports Weekly expert auction held in early March. Tout Wars is the expert auction held in late March. SW is the Sports Weekly predictions, which have Devin Clancy's name on them, but I'm pretty sure are Rotoworld's.
Looking at it this way is interesting in that you do see some outliers. Rotoman gives a pretty big thumbs down on Cano at $17. Patton and Kreutzer both dislike Kendrick a LOT (injury made their disdain for Kendrick work out). LABR goes ga-ga over Castillo at $20.
Much of the difference of opinion, though, occurs at the bottom of the food chain. A $5 difference of opinion on Dustin Pedroia and Jose Vidro. $4 worth of quibbling on Ellis. A $6 difference on Aaron Hill. When you're talking about the difference between a $6 bid limit and a $12 bid limit, these aren't small differences.
In Stage Three, these differences are even larger, since most owners are looking at the same prices on the same sheet and merely racing to the same number on a piece of paper. The lessons I see here are:
1) Push rookies a little higher, but not too high. Going to $20 for Kendrick or Kinsler doesn't make a lot of sense if you can get a $6 or $7 Pedroia.
2) Don't undercut veterans, especially players who had an off-year and are guaranteed a job. 500 guaranteed AB at 2B from a Polanco or a Ellis can't be underestimated.
3) Remember that each expert has his blind spots. If you are in a carryover league, and know that your preferred tout doesn't like rookies, adjust your bid limits accordingly.
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