Top 10 N.L. Second Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Brandon Phillips | $36 | $18 | 4 | $25 |
| 2 | Chase Utley | $32 | $30 | 1 | $35 |
| 3 | Kaz Matsui | $20 | $6 | 12 | $8 |
| 4 | Jeff Kent | $20 | $18 | 3 | $11 |
| 5 | Freddy Sanchez | $18 | $18 | N/A | $25 |
| 6 | Orlando Hudson | $17 | $16 | 9 | $19 |
| 7 | Kelly Johnson | $17 | $7 | N/A | |
| 8 | Ryan Theriot | $16 | $1 | 20 | $11 |
| 9 | Dan Uggla | $15 | $19 | 2 | $23 |
| 10 | Mark DeRosa | $14 | $9 | N/A | $16 |
| Average | $21 | $14 | $17 |
Like the A.L. grouping, there are certainly some surprises here (Phillips, Theriot, Matsui, and Johnson). Unlike the A.L., though, there are also some great predictions. Patton nails Sanchez, and coming within $2 on Kent after his $11 swoon last year is an excellent call. He's close on Hudson and Utley, too, and I can't fault the $9 projection on DeRosa, whose role entering the season was a completely open question.
Unlike the A.L., there were some huge busts here after the dust settled.
Top 10 Predicted N.L. Second Basemen 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Chase Utley | $32 | $30 | 2 | $35 |
| 2 | Dan Uggla | $15 | $19 | 9 | $23 |
| 3 | Jeff Kent | $20 | $18 | 4 | $11 |
| 4 | Brandon Phillips | $36 | $18 | 1 | $25 |
| 5 | Richie Weeks | $14 | $18 | 11 | $15 |
| 6 | Chris Burke | $4 | $18 | 25 | $12 |
| 7 | Ray Durham | $7 | $17 | 15 | $25 |
| 8 | Marcus Giles | $4 | $17 | NR | $13 |
| 9 | Orlando Hudson | $17 | $16 | 6 | $19 |
| 10 | Adam Kennedy | $1 | $10 | NR | $15 |
| Average | $15 | $18 | $19 |
Brandon Phillips masks the fact that this is an ugly, ugly group of 10 hitters. It also provides a good explanation as to why the touts I looked at in the last segment of this series weren't willing to spend a few extra bucks on Placido Polanco, Mark Ellis, or even Brian Roberts.
Will any one of Burke, Durham, Giles or Kennedy bounce back and post double-digit earnings in 2008?
More importantly, would you be willing to bet on it?
I won't. I've been burned at middle infield by guys like this in the past.
So I leave 2B behind feeling less definite about the conclusions I drew in my last post. Grabbing any old starter at the position isn't necessarily a winning strategy. I thought Adam Kennedy, who had earned $20, $15, $17 and $15 from 2003-2006 was as safe a bet at middle infield as you could get, but he crashed and burned big time in the N.L. You can argue that Ray Durham was due to get old, but he earned $25 last year.
Position scarcity is why we pay extra for second basemen, but positional variance is what creates position scarcity in the first place, and why we should be careful not to pay too much at "scarce" positions.
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