2007 A.L. First Basemen

In a game where records aren't kept, it's typically difficult to say that history was made. But for someone who has played the game for 21 years, I can tell you that it's all but certain that history was made in the American League last year at first base.

Top 10 A.L. First Basemen 2007

Rank	Player	AP$	AP Proj.	Proj. Rank	2006
1	Carlos Pena	$32	$2	22	$1
2	Justin Morneau	$24	$28	2	$33
3	Paul Konerko	$19	$26	3	$29
4	Kevin Youkilis	$19	$10	10	$14
5	Matt Stairs	$17	$1	N/A	$6
6	Ryan Garko	$17	$4	18	$8
7	Nick Swisher	$16	$20	5	$18
8	Casey Kotchman	$15	$11	9	$-2
9	Aubrey Huff	$15	$15	N/A	$13
10	Mark Teixeira	$12	$30	1	$24
	Average	$19	$15		$14

Carlos Pena certainly isn't the first free agent hitter to crawl out of the swamp and contribute to fantasy teams. However, his $32 season is unprecedented; a hitter who has the potential to earn $20 is almost always purchased in Roto leagues. My league took a pass. My first baseman, I'm embarrassed to say, was Doug Mientkiewicz at $3. He earned $5. But 11 other owners, who could have bought Pena at $1, also decided he wasn't worth the risk. Greg Norton, Robb Quinlan, Josh Phelps and Ben Broussard were all bought. Chris Gomez and Pena were the only 1B left on the board.

This wasn't just limited to my league. LABR also took a pass on Pena, and this includes their six-man reserve list. 348 players were selected by the LABRites and no one thought to mention Pena.

Matthew Berry of The Talented Mr. Roto grabbed Pena at $1 in the Tout Wars expert league. He was rewarded with a second place finish.

What Pena does, though, is mask how incredibly thin first base has become for A.L. Roto players.

Any Top 10 list should have plenty of profit, but this group only does $4 better than Alex predicted it would, and most of that profit is Pena. Having Teixeira crack the Top 10 certainly does bring the earnings down compared to the projections, but this is still a limp group. In 2006, six A.L. first basemen (Morneau, Konerko, Overbay, Teixeira, Giambi and Sexson) cracked the $20 barrier. Only four did it in 2005 (Teixeira, Konerko, Sexson and Shea Hillenbrand), but that's still a little better than this year.

The bigger problem, though, isn't the lack of big earnings. It's the lack of predictability.

Top 10 Predicted A.L. First Basemen 2007

Rank	Player	AP$	AP Proj.	Actual Rank	2006
1	Mark Teixeira	$12	$30	10	$24
2	Justin Morneau	$24	$28	2	$33
3	Paul Konerko	$19	$26	3	$29
4	Richie Sexson	$6	$23	15	$20
5	Nick Swisher	$16	$20	7	$18
6	Lyle Overbay	$5	$18	16	$24
7	Jason Giambi	$7	$18	N/A	$21
8	Ryan Shealy	$0	$14	NR	$6
9	Casey Kotchman	$15	$11	8	($2)
10	Kevin Youkilis	$19	$10	4	$14
	Average	$12	$20		$19

There are five bona fide busts here in Teixeira, Sexson, Overbay, Giambi and Shealy, but even Konerko would have been bad news if you took Alex's advice and paid $26. Youkilis and Kotchman were nice bargains at those prices, but I'm guessing that both were frozen in many carryover leagues.

Obviously I would have preferred Pena at $1 to Mientkiewicz at $3. But, looking at the alternatives at my auction, I'm glad I avoided the big ticket items like Konerko (went for $32 in my league with inflation), Sexson ($26), or Swisher ($23). Ryan Garko was available, but he went for $11 to a team that was looking ahead to 2008. Alex's bid limit on Garko was low because the Indians had a logjam at 1B/OF, and it wasn't certain that Garko would play every day. I wasn't willing to go to $12.

The position should improve this year, though losing Teixeira to Atlanta makes it look thinner at the moment. A healthy Overbay alone should improve matters. Currently, though, third base looks much stronger than first. Conventional wisdom used to tell us that there would be more 1B options than 3B for your final corner slot. That wisdom has been turned on its head the last two years. Don't be afraid to buy two 3B early if the opportunity presents itself.