Friday, October 19, 2007

2007 N.L. Catchers

Moving on, let's take a look at last year's Top 10 N.L. catchers in 2007. The only difference between the A.L. and the N.L., is that the N.L. values are calculated based on 13-team, not 12-team, leagues.

Top 10 N.L. Catchers 2007
RankPlayerAP$AP
Proj.
Proj.
Rank
2006
1Russell Martin
$27$142
$16
2Ben Molina
$15$126
$14
3Brian McCann
$15$241
$27
4Johnny Estrada
$10$144
$15
5Paul LoDuca
$9$125
$15
6Ronny Paulino
$9$88
$13
7 (tie)
Josh Bard
$9$511
$13

Carlos Ruiz
$9$121
$2
9Miguel Olivo
$8$97
$11
10Ramon Castro
$8R3

$1

Average
$12$10
$13

Just like in the American League, there is only one significant bargain (Martin) and one huge bust (McCann). Unlike the A.L., two catchers at the bottom of the barrel (Ruiz and Castro) crack the Top 10. Alex doesn't even recommend that you place a $1 bid on Castro if you need a second catcher.

I'm willing to guess that, in freeze leagues, much of this was academic. Martin, McCann, LoDuca, Paulino, Bard and Olivo were all frozen in the N.L. league I track, which meant that Molina, Estrada and Rod Barajas were high priority targets.

Freeze lists do change the way we look at these groupings. Brian McCann's owner was disappointed with McCann's $15 season, but not as disappointed as owners who paid $25 for him. If you froze McCann at $10, you wanted $15 worth of profit, but taking $5 worth of profit at catcher is still quite beneficial. Inflation means that Molina was no bargain, Estrada took even more of a loss, and Barajas owners went from being upset in non-freeze leagues to wanting to jump off a high ledge in freeze leagues.

Top 10 Predicted N.L. Catchers 2007
RankPlayerAP$AP
Proj.
Actual
Rank
2006
1Brian McCann
$15$243
$27
2
Russell Martin
$27$141
$16
3Michael Barrett
$5
$14
15
$15
4Johnny Estrada
$10$144
$15
5Paul LoDuca
$9$125
$15
6
Ben Molina
$15$122
$14
7
Miguel Olivo
$8$99
$11
8
Ronny Paulino
$9$86
$13
9
Rod Barajas
$1
$7
NR
$5
10Dave Ross
$3$6
24
$12

Average
$10$12
$14

I like this list better because it illustrates even more so that N.L. catchers were somewhat more unpredictable than their A.L. counterparts. Alex's recommendation that you give this group a $2 pay cut per player seems to be his way of indicating this fact. Barajas is the only player he suggested giving a raise; everyone else gets nicked anywhere from $1 to $3. Paulino and Ross are penalized the most. The Paulino call is excellent, and the Ross call is on the right track but just not pessimistic enough.

The cheap catcher strategy was a better play in the N.L. last year. Ruiz, Castro, Damian Miller and Javier Valentin were all catchers that typically could be had for $2 or less. Given the lack of $10 plus catchers in the N.L., it was a good idea to hold back on spending $15+ just to get a starter and wait for the endgame.

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