The AP $ are my calculated values using the standard Patton formulas for 4x4. When Alex produces his version of his Evaluator program sometime in December or January, he'll probably have very similar yet slightly different dollar values. I don't get hung up on this. I know that my values are, at most, $1 or $2 off. The important thing is that the values accurately reflect Alex's model, so Posada is to Martinez is to Varitek in my model what Posada is to Martinez is to Varitek in Alex's model.
The AP projected values are Alex's bid limits from his last update to his projections, on April 5, 2007. It is important to note that these are not the projected Patton $ values for these players. Projections are used to break ties; Posada is ranked behind Pudge because Pudge was projected to earn $18 while Posada was only projected to earn $14.
Finally, players like Mike Piazza, who were eligible at catcher on Auction Day 2007 but who will not be eligible at the same position on Auction Day 2008 (based on a 20-game requirement or most games played at the position) will not be included. For the record, Piazza was ranked third by bid limit in Alex's Top 10.
Top 10 A.L. Catchers 2007
| Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. $ | Proj. Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Jorge Posada | $28 | $15 | 6 | $18 |
| 2 | Victor Martinez | $26 | $22 | 2 | $21 |
| 3 | Joe Mauer | $14 | $26 | 1 | $27 |
| 4 | Kenji Johjima | $14 | $17 | 4 | $17 |
| 5 | Ivan Rodriguez | $13 | $15 | 5 | $18 |
| 6 | Jason Varitek | $12 | $12 | 8 | $5 |
| 7 | A.J. Pierzynski | $9 | $11 | 9 | $14 |
| 8 | Ramon Hernandez | $9 | $14 | 7 | $17 |
| 9 | Mike Napoli | $8 | $3 | 14 | $6 |
| 10 | John Buck | $6 | $3 | 15 | $5 |
| Average | $14 | $14 | $15 |
So what do you think of this set of predictions?
In my mind, they're very good bordering on excellent. Posada and Mauer are the only swings and misses. Jason Varitek is the only player who earns his bid prediction, but I can't look back at any of these other predictions and think that Alex screwed up. I might have had Napoli at $5 or $6 instead of $3, but that's it.
Another way to look at this is to look at the Top 10 predicted hitters, sorted by projected value:
Top 10 AP bid limits: A.L. Catchers 2007
| Proj. Rank | Player | AP$ | AP Proj. $ | Actual Rank | 2006 |
| 1 | Joe Mauer | $14 | $26 | 3 | $27 |
| 2 | Victor Martinez | $26 | $22 | 2 | $21 |
| 3 | Mike Piazza | $8 | $21 | N/A | $16 |
| 4 | Kenji Johjima | $14 | $17 | 4 | $17 |
| 5 | Ivan Rodriguez | $13 | $15 | 5 | $18 |
| 6 | Jorge Posada | $28 | $15 | 1 | $18 |
| 7 | Ramon Hernandez | $9 | $14 | 8 | $17 |
| 8 | Jason Varitek | $12 | $12 | 6 | $5 |
| 9 | A.J. Pierzynski | $9 | $11 | 7 | $14 |
| 10 | Gerald Laird | $5 | $6 | 15 | $7 |
| Average | $14 | $16 | $16 |
Piazza and Laird replace Napoli and Buck. Otherwise the list is the same.
What I find stunning is how predictable this group on the whole is. I've seen a pundit or two put Ramon Hernandez on their Fantasy LVP lists. But why? If I paid $14 for him, a $9 return certainly wouldn't have made me happy. But what were the alternatives? Getting John Buck at $3 obviously would have been better, but it's not like he went out and put up double digit earnings either.
In my A.L., 17 of the top 24 catchers were frozen or drafted. This number swells to 18 if you include Piazza, based on his 2006 eligibility. The six catchers purchased who didn't crack the Top 24 all cost $1 with the exception of Jason LaRue, who cost $2, and Jason Kendall, who was frozen at $12. The other four: Chris Heintz, Toby Hall, Paul Bako and Jason Phillips.
The seven catchers who cracked the Top 24 were Kurt Suzuki (earned $5), Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($4), Raul Casanova ($3), Jaime Burke ($3), Rob Bowen ($1), Mike Rabelo ($1), and Curtis Thigpen ($1).
I pointed this out last winter and I'll say it again. The $1 catcher theory in the American League is a loser based on the results. Buying Toby Hall at $1 so you can wait to FAAB Kurt Suzuki mid-season - if Suzuki even shows up - is a questionable tactic. Worse yet, LaRue (-$3), Bako (-$2), Hall ($-2), Phillips (-$1), Kendall (-$0), and Heintz ($0) turn a loss on their minimal investments.
Catcher is a rare position where you have to understand that you might take a loss in an effort to ensure you get statistics. This is where theory and reality diverge. Spending $2 combined on Heintz and Hall and getting ($2) of stats is worse than spending $14 on Ramon Hernandez and getting $9 of stats. Hernandez gave you something for that $14 investment. Hall gave you worse than nothing, and the odds aren't good that a free agent is going to bail you out. Obviously, you don't want to overspend to get a quality player. But you should avoid two $1 catchers if you can. You're digging a huge hole in two of your 14 slots on offense is you don't.
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