Continuing my series, tonight will be part I of N.L. pitcher dump targets. Unlike the A.L., I decided to split the pitchers into two parts, just because it seems like there are many more young arms in the N.L.
Bronson Arroyo: This is painful to write, because I was a huge Arroyo fan when he came up after buying him on the cheap in 2004 and watching him put up a solid year for Boston. But, if you look closely at Arroyo's stat line to date, last year is the fluke, not this year. You're looking at a 4-4.50 ERA pitcher. Don't buy into a good outing and think that Arroyo's going to magically turn this special, secret, super wonderful corner. He won't. Rotoworld's speculating that Arroyo's hurt, but I just think his 3.29 ERA from last year was flukish. He's reverting to the mean.
Homer Bailey: He didn't look ready at all. He should be very good someday, but young pitchers can take many years to be very good. Don't gamble here.
Matt Capps: If the Pirates decide to stick with Capps in 2008, I don't have a lot of questions about his ability to handle the closer role. Yes, his peripherals indicate that his ERA should probably be somewhat higher, and his HR/IP doesn't match his G/F rate. Even so, Capps is fine as closer. The question is whether or not Salomon Torres gets the job back at some point this year and how that might affect Capps in 2008. I don't think it will, but there is risk here. Remember, dumping is about avoiding future risk.
Yovani Gallardo: I'm a huge fan of Yovanni Gallardo. I don't remember if I said it here or in Alex Patton's discussion forums, but I predicted that Gallardo would have a bigger impact in Roto leagues this year than Homer Bailey or Tim Lincecum. Having seen all three this year, I feel like I made the right call. Lincecum's stuff is more explosive, without a doubt. But Gallardo's stuff is still pretty damn good, plus he knows how to pitch. Yes, 28 2/3 major league innings, be wary, be cautious, all the usual caveats. But, if you're going to play a hunch and overpay a little in a dump deal, do it here, not with Lincecum.
Tom Gorzelanny: A solid pitcher, but my hunch is that the league makes adjustments next year. His K/IP is too low to sustain such a low batting average against, and while I think Gorzo is solid, something between a 3.50 and a 4.00 ERA might be more realistic. Buy, but expect him to take his lumps.
Kevin Gregg: Forget the stats, Gregg is a poor bet to remain Marlins closer in 2008. Even if he does, you dodged a bullet and got lucky. Don't try to dump and get lucky. It never works.
Cole Hamels: I saw him pitch today at CBP in a game where he didn't have his best stuff. Fortunately for the Phillies, Mike Maroth was worse. Having watched Hamels, I can tell you that he's a damn fine pitcher. He throws three quality pitches for strikes, and his change and curve aren't just complimentary pitches, they're nasty in their own right.
Chuck James: I drafted Chuck James pretty early in the CBS Sportsline draft this year. In retrospect, that was a bad call; I should have followed Rotoman's dollar values less closely and looked more at James' peripherals. There's no doubt that James will be a serviceable, maybe even solid, major league pitcher. But he doesn't throw hard enough to ever be the dominant ace some are hoping for. Dump for him, by all means (he was bought cheap in 2006 in a lot of leagues). But don't build around him. He's a component player.
Josh Johnson: He's hurt. Can't trade for him while he's hurt. He's standing in for all of the injured pitchers in this space. Don't make dump deals for injury cases.
Tim Lincecum: Lincecum is a poster child for why you can't just look at the numbers and walk away. His ratios suggest that his ERA and WHIP should be much better. He doesn't give up a lot of homeruns, and striking out more than a batter an inning as a rookie deserves a standing O. And yet...I can't quite place my finger on it, but I can't help feeling like Lincecum deserves the high ERA. Every time I've seen him pitch, he goes through lapses in concentration, gets flustered, and gets hit hard. It doesn't help that Bruce Bochy is running Lincecum out there like there's no tomorrow. 100.6 pitches per start is excessive, and three starts over 110 pitches is criminal. On paper, you should make a strong play for Lincecum. My instincts tell me to stay away next year. My vibe is that he's a slump or injury waiting to happen.
Tony Pena: Pitching well over his head backing up Jose Valverde. Long term, I still think Pena's a very good closer option, but if his ERA/WHIP catch up to his peripherals, I worry that Pena will get buried in the bullpen next year.
Ian Snell: Two years ago, Ian Snell looked like a talented but raw pitcher that (surprise, surprise) the Pirates rushed up too soon. Last year, Snell looked like a guy who was trying to throw as hard as he could and blow away major league hitters. When it worked, Snell was great, but when it didn't, the ball flew out of the park very far and very fast, as it will do when you groove a fastball to a major league hitter. This year, Snell seems to have put it all together, realizing that command is as important as stuff. He's not as highly regarded as a Cole Hamels or a Chris Young, but you shouldn't be afraid to put him at the top of the next tier.
Taylor Tankersley: Don't speculate on guys who might be closers someday. If you're an N.L. veteran, think of guys like Ryan Wagner. If not, know that Ryan Wagner was once considered a can't miss closer. He missed.
Chris Young: I didn't like Chris Young when he first came up with the Rangers, and I thought that last year was a fluke, but it's time to give up the ghost. Chris Young is scary excellent. He's as top-tier a dump target as you're going to find on the pitching side. Sure, he might "only" be a 3.00 ERA pitcher. So what? Get him.
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