N.L. Dump Targets - Part II

Part II of N.L. hitters today. I'll conclude (hopefully) with N.L. pitchers tomorrow.

Ryan Braun: OK, if he doesn't walk a little more, the average will have to come down. But what does that mean? .290 with excellent power and speed to boot? Braun already belongs with the National League's elite targets for 2008.

Chris Burke: Mike Fenger asked that I write about Burke. OK, though keep in mind that Burke's star has fallen enough that, in some leagues, he wasn't a farm player and was FAABed when he came up at a higher price. I have to admit I'm not a fan. He's 27 years old and 2006 was the only year (so far) that Burke had that is even major league acceptable. As Mike F. points out, Burke's value does go up if he's 2B eligible in 2008.

Ryan Doumit: I cannot believe the Pirates cannot find a place for Doumit's bat in the line-up. He's not a catcher, but he should have a home for a major league team at 1B or manning an OF corner. This doesn't help, I realize, when you're trying to make a decision about what price to set for Doumit. One thing to always keep in mind is the organization your target plays for. You obviously can't pass on every Pirate, but Doumit is a guy you can't take the plunge on. Tomorrow, he could very well be sitting on the bench learning a new cheer.

Stephen Drew: I have faith that he will get better. He's no Jose Reyes, but their BB/AB rates their first couple of years were similar. Drew's BB/AB rate, while still not good, is improving slowly. He's a 24 year old shortstop. He's a presence on the field. I'm not sure Drew will hit 15-20 HR next year, but I wouldn't bet against it. If you dump for Drew, though, don't overpay on my hunch.

Yunel Escobar: Some people are pretty hyped on this guy. I'm not sold. He's 24 years old but, much more vitally, he hit for an empty .333 batting average before getting the call to the Braves. He's continuing not to hit for power, which isn't a good sign for a 6'2", 200 lb. guy. I'm still waiting to be impressed. If you haven't bought the hype, put a feather in your cap.

Carlos Gomez: Is the currently injured Gomez in the Mets 2008 plans? I have no idea. But I wouldn't pay a lot for a guy whose playing time is questionable in 2008, speed or no.

Josh Hamilton: Josh Hamilton's background makes me not want to believe in him. But his stats make it hard. Looking at the splits, he's weak against lefties, hates the day games, and...and...um... He had a poor May, but bounced back with an awesome June, making me think he's not a fluke. Health is his biggest issue, so you can't quite pay full price. But I think Hamilton has proven he's for real, and a viable undervalued freeze for 2008.

Matt Kemp: He's very talented, and looks like he could be a 20/20 guy fast. The question is whether or not the Dodgers finally are giving him a real opportunity, or if they'll ship him out after his first 0-10. I think the risk is slight. Kemp's skill set reminds me of Raul Mondesi's. This isn't a left handed compliment; keep in mind that Mondesi was a great Roto player for a few years before flaming out too soon. Watch the low walk rate.

Kevin Kouzmanoff: His price was pretty high in a number of leagues, so this is probably a moot point. He's looking more and more like an option against lefties only, which isn't a good building block if you're 25 years old and too young to become a professional pinch hitter.

Russell Martin: One of the top targets in the National League. The speed is legit, the power will improve somewhat, and he doesn't walk a ton but makes up for it by making amazing contact. The only hard thing if you're playing for 2008 is going to be finding a catcher for your opponent who isn't going to be a downgrade. In fact, you will not be able to do so.

Lastings Milledge: His 2006 AAA and major league numbers suggest Milledge needs a full year at AAA, but I can't blame the Mets for feeling the need to call him up now. Milledge clearly has shown flashes of greatness, but those flashes are still on the level of "gee, what's that bright light next door?", as opposed to "if those jerks don't turn off their high beams, I'm calling the cops!" I think Milledge is a risky play, and the Mets deep pocketed propensity for veterans doesn't help Lastings' cause.

Miguel Montero: I have a good feeling about Montero, but he hasn't had enough AB this year to jump to a definitive conclusion. I worry that the Diamondbacks aren't doing him any favors by letting him rust in the dugout.

Ronny Paulino: Do you believe in his awesome 2006 or his disappointing 2007? I believe this year is closer to Paulino's expected level of performance. The BB/AB is poor, and that speaks more to the .250 batting average than a .300+ BA. Rotoworld reported that the Mets might chase Paulino this winter, which would increase his value slightly. But don't target him just because he's a catcher.

Hunter Pence: A few years ago, Aaron Gleeman's sell high column might have gotten you a bargain on Pence. That won't work anymore, but I don't see why you wouldn't pay a lot for Pence. He's still young (24), has a lot of juice in his bat, and doesn't look like a player who will completely fall apart. Yes, the low BB rate makes me think of a lower average hitter, but Pence has enough raw ability that .270-.280 might still be realistic. Buy.

Felix Pie: Will the Cubs play him next year? Does Lou Pinella only like men over the age of 30 and just tolerate younger guys? Did Pinella really sniff his fingers in the clubhouse for the 1978 New York Yankees the way Sparky Lyle said he did in his book The Bronx Zoo? Will there be terrible jokes about the square root of Pie if he doesn't pan out? I don't know any of the answers. Obviously, a tremendous talent here, but I don't trust Pinella not to mess it up.

Hanley Ramirez: I'm obliged to include Ramirez because, in most leagues, he's only in his second year of Roto eligibility. He's on pace for a near 25 HR, 50 SB season. He must be targeted as a two-for-one or even possible three-for-one dump target. Keep in mind that Jose Reyes and J.J. Hardy will probably be free agents in your league next year, and that Edgar Renteria and Jimmy Rollins weren't cheap in the first place.

Freddy Sanchez: All-Star Freddy Sanchez. Ugh. Ian Snell or Tom Gorzelanny would have been better choices. In terms of Roto, Freddy Sanchez is to 2006 what Jack Wilson was to 2004. Last season reeks of career year. Even if Sanchez somehow bounces back, keep in mind that batting average is an isolated stat: there's nothing else Sanchez is going to add to your team except RBI.

Troy Tulowitzki: Will June 2007 be remembered as Tulowitzki's breakout month? His BB/K rate stayed nearly the same, so perhaps not. He's only 22 years old and plays in Coors Field, which still plays as a hitter's park even if it refuses to play as a homer haven. I expect big things from him, and he's worth paying the price of two big enchiladas to find out if I'm right.

Dan Uggla: Dan Uggla's the kind of guy who drives the statheads nuts. No, wait, it's the reaction of the mainstream media that drives the statheads nuts. Uggla's batting average is down nearly 40 points, and that's all anyone who writes for a major metropolitan newspaper can see. To all of these ink-stained wretches, all I can say is: look at the OPS! Uggla's is almost the same player he was last year. He's walking more and hitting more flyballs, both small pieces of good news from where I'm sitting. If anything, I like the lower batting average. It means that some narrow minded owner who thought Uggla was going to turn into Jeff Kent in his prime might be panicked. Take Uggla for what he is: a good 2B who isn't headed for a Hall of Fame career, but is someone who will be at a nice price in 2008.