N.L. Dump Targets

Moving on to the N.L., let's look at some possible dump targets there. I'll start with the hitters. I'll do what I did for the American League, breaking the hitters into two parts. Today is Part One.

Tony Abreu: I'd have to say avoid Abreu at the moment. His owners will talk about his long-term potential, but he's only 22 and hasn't shown any power or speed yet. Abreu strikes me as one of the many young 2B currently floating around (and, yes, his future is at 2B) who will have more value in reality than in Roto.

Jose Bautista: I thought too much was made of Bautista's 2006 campaign, but now feel like the naysayers are weighing in too heavily on the other side. His OPS is very close to last year's, and only the HR/AB are down. Bautista still looks like a 15 HR guy, and is very cheap in most leagues. He's not a first-tier target, but the kind of guy you look to add after you've made your first deal or two.

Michael Bourn: Maybe with Shane Victorino and Bourn, the Phillies will enter a new era of being the Go-Go Phillies. Sure, it won't jibe with their ballpark, but what the heck? It'll sure be fun to watch. As far as Bourn goes, the steals obviously make him a potentially valuable commodity, but he'll have to get on base more for the Phils to view him as a long-term option in the OF. I think Pat Burrell's worn out his welcome, and Bourn could be the beneficiary, but he's going to need to add about 20 points to his OBP to maintain a starting OF gig in the majors. Right now he's a second tier dump target, even though he has 40-50 SB potential.

Chris Duncan: You have to believe in Duncan at this point. 39 HR and a .570 slugging percentage over the course of 526 major league AB. He's still weak against left-handed pitching, but a .263 average means that he shouldn't completely sit against southpaws.

Andre Ethier: A solid player who I think should get better, but I also wouldn't expect a huge amount of growth. Ethier's 25 years old, and the opportunity to suddenly become a superstar is limited. I'd expect a peak more along the lines of 20-25 HR with a decent average: nothing to scoff at, but not a high priority target, either.

Corey Hart: The stolen bases are a nice surprise, but close observers would have known that Hart was a clever runner in the minors as well. He's developed a little faster than I thought he would, but the minor league track record indicates that Hart should be a very good player for years to come.

Chris Iannetta: He ripped it up between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Colorado Springs last year, but Iannetta clearly should be back in the minors if he's going to split time with Yorvit Torrealba. Young catchers who struggle with the bat are very poor risks. Don't roll the dice here.

Andy LaRoche: He'll be back, and I still think he has the potential to join the excellent 3B cadre in the National League. That being said, it's not a good sign that he's in the minors while James Loney and Tony Abreu are in L.A.

James Loney: I'm incredibly impressed with what Loney's done for the Dodgers so far this year, but can't ignore the lousy numbers he put up at Las Vegas before his promotion. His 1/32/2/.279 line is awful, and the 345/382/727 means that there isn't something better hiding in the OPS. Maybe you can chalk it up to Loney being disgruntled that he had to go back to Vegas after getting 102 major league at-bats last year, but that doesn't sound good on his behalf, either. My recommendation here is buy, but I have to admit that the minor league numbers scare me, even if it's just for half a season.

Xavier Nady: I love targeting guys like Nady when I'm rebuilding. He's quietly on his way to a near 30 HR/100 RBI season with a good batting average to boot. He's not going to have the impact of a Miguel Cabrera or a David Wright, but he also won't cost as much either.

Carlos Quentin: He succeeded at early level he ever played at until this year, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. That being said, you'll have to try and buy low, since there are so many young players who actually did get it done in the N.L. this year.

Mark Reynolds: He clearly can hit, so the question will be where will the Diamondbacks find a place for him to play. My guess is rightfield if they don't want to move Chad Tracy or Connor Jackson. I'd buy. I think Reynolds' bat will get him into the line-up in 2008.

Carlos Ruiz: I liked Ruiz when he first got called up by the Phillies in 2006, but it's starting to look like he is going to be one of those catchers who has more real-life impact than Roto impact. Not a lot of power, not even in the CBP bandbox. He's cheap, but not a value hitter.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Saltalamacchia is holding his own as a 22-year old catcher in the major leagues. In other words, he's a player. The only problem is that he's blocked by Brian McCann. His future is at 1B, in other words, and I think he's talented enough of a hitter than defense won't matter that much. The Scott Thorman experiment will end next year, if not earlier. One incentive for Saltalamacchia's owners to move him is that the Braves might bring in a more seasoned 1B for the stretch drive and send Saltalamacchia down. Try to capitalize on this opportunity.

Luke Scott: He's 29 years old, so the bounceback 2nd half or 2008 can't be counted on. He's better than this, but he may not get an extended chance to prove it, regardless of how much the manager likes him.

Ryan Theriot: Like Bourn, a player you need to be careful about. Theriot offers steals and not much else. He's a middle infielder, which gives him an advantage over Bourn, but he's also 27 years old. I smell a utility player here.

Scott Thorman: It's time for the Braves to let go of the idea that Thorman is going to be an asset. His minor league numbers kind of showed that he was a player on the major league bubble, and his major league numbers over pieces of the last two years confirm it. 25 isn't old by any means, but Thorman doesn't deserve to be in the majors right now.

Shane Victorino: He won't be quite as cheap, price-wise, as some of the other players on this list. He's on pace for a 20/50 year, though I would pencil in 10 HR and 40 SB just to be safe. Still, I don't think the stolen bases are going away, and Victorino will be value for that facet of his game alone. He's not going to be cheap, but this is a guy I'd pay for right now. Keep in mind that Victorino didn't hit a homer in April. Like a lot of late bloomers, this is a guy who could actually get better.

Josh Willingham: Willingham's a solid option, but might be overrated by some who would expect improvement because he's a second-year player. He's 28-years old, and what you see is what you get. That isn't to say that 25-30 HR power is a bad thing, just don't pay for 40 HR power.

Chris Young: I think some people are actually surprised by Chris Young's terrible batting average. I'm not. Hitters who do no better than .277 in the high minors are going to top out around .240-.250 in the majors. Even with the acceptable walk rates in the minors, there was a hole in Young's swing that was worth watching all along. Right now, I'm not optimistic about Young's future. Players like this sometimes work out, but they also sometimes wind up flaming out after a handful of years putting a charge in the ball but mostly swinging and whiffing. I wouldn't take the chance here.