Monday, July 16, 2007

N.L. FAAB Log - July 16, 2007

Jose Cruz Jr. $3
Nothing changes too much with Cruz except his role. He's a so-so option for a major league team, but a somewhat decent option for a Roto team if he's starting because of he'll steal 10, hit about 10-15 HR, and drive in a few. The average is never good, but you know that going in to the deal. Right now, though, Milton Bradley is the Padres starting left-fielder, so a little patience must be displayed. The problem with Cruz is that, in most leagues, you have to keep him on your active roster, so waiting for Cruz is keeping a roster spot occupied while you wait.

Kyle Kendrick $2. Other bid $1
If you live in the city where a guy like Kyle Kendrick pitches (like I do), and if you aren't paying close attention, it would be easy to get sucked into how good Kyle Kendrick is magically becoming because he has won four games and lost none in six starts. The manager repeats it a lot, and then the press gets sucked in because, impartial as they want to act, they also want to report on exciting news for the team they are covering in the city they live in. Problem is, the numbers just don't support it. One solid outing against a flat Cardinals team, and suddenly Kendrick is the man. His 3.55 K/IP reminds me too much of Jeremy Sowers, and CBP is going to lead to some bad nights later this summer. This is a dangerous ride, and you shouldn't take it if you're playing for this year. Don't get sucked into the Philadelphia media hype machine. Keep in mind, this is the city whose media had Manny Ramirez coming to Philly in a three-way trade for A-Rod. They do like to froth.

Geovany Soto $1. Other bid $1
I'm not sure how the other 23 catching slots are filled in this league, but this is an example of 11 teams being asleep at the switch. Rotoworld points out the negatives: Soto has a terrible track record in the minors prior to this year, and the Cubs should be looking for a better catcher on the trade market before the non-waiver deadline in 2 1/2 weeks. However, catchers don't grow on trees, and I don't see a veteran backstop that is necessarily ready to be moved. Soto's 24 years old. It's possible that his 2007 minor league numbers are a fluke; it's also possible that he turned a corner. He's certainly worth spending a good $5-10 FAAB if your second catcher is Javier Valentin.

Doug Davis $1
Check out the
trends on Doug Davis' numbers since 2004. The K/IP rate has dropped almost every year and, as a result, the K/BB is way down and the H/IP has shot up. The result is a WHIP that should be leading to a 5.50 ERA. Owning Davis is dodging a bullet every night. Doug Melvin is turning into a midwestern version of Billy Beane, and flipping Davis for Johnny Estrada looks like a stroke of genius right about now. Of course, Melvin didn't put a gun to the D-Backs heads and require them to sign Davis to a $22 million, three-year extension.

Jeff Salazar $1
Salazar is a 26-year-old who isn't really a prospect, but was putting up solid numbers in Tucson. The power will be light in the majors, but he's got a little speed and will probably put up anything between a .260 and .280 batting average in the majors. Carlos Quentin and Chris Young are better in the long term, but if Salazar hits, he could keep a starting gig the rest of 2007. Again, another guy who should have went for more than $1.

Jose Castillo $1. Other bid $1.
He'll play with Jose Bautista out, but he hasn't stolen a base or hit a home run yet. The Pirates might eventually give Matt Kata some AB if Castillo continues to suck wind. I said this earlier this year, but a change of scenery would be great for all involved.

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