Is Dustin McGowan for real?
As part of my A.L.-only trading mania this weekend (a column Toz and I can't decide who should write, so it remains tabled for the moment), I was "forced" to acquire Dustin McGowan in order to maintain a five-man rotation, keep in the thick of the wins race, and (most importantly) stay under our league's $375 salary cap. As part of the frenzy, I moved Kason Gabbard, so I'm essentially swapping out Gabbard for McGowan.
My initial thought was that I'd hang on to McGowan until the major league trading deadline, and then swap him out for an N.L. import. With only four teams truly in contention, I figured that I could get an OK starter since a lot of teams won't be aggressively bidding.
However, I took a second look at McGowan's numbers, and suddenly I have to say that I'm a little impressed.
His biggest problem has been consistency. He's put up nine quality starts, but hasn't been very good at all in his six other starts. I'm not a believer in the notion that "hey, if you eliminate those six starts, McGowan is Christy Mathewson!" so let's look instead at McGowan's overall numbers.
His LIMA numbers are solid across the board. His K/IP is 6.82, his HR/IP is at 0.69 and his K/BB is a 1.92. That number needs to improve, but it's not horrible.
His Roto numbers don't match the peripherals and, if anything, some improvement could very well be expected. His 4.45 ERA and 1.31 WHIP are a little high, and I think you could very well see a 3.80/1.25 ERA/WHIP combination from here on out.
The scouting reports are also very positive. Although I haven't seen McGowan pitch this year, those how have tell me that his stuff is simply filthy when he's on his game. His fastball can hit 98-99 MPH, though 93-94 MPH is a more typical speed for his heater. His change/curve combination is good, and he has a slider that he can use when needed.
Keep in mind that McGowan had Tommy John surgery during the 2004 season. The knock on him pre-surgery was his "command within the strike zone", and that's still true. The scariest thing about McGowan is that he's still learning to pitch. He's only 25 years old and could get a lot better.
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