Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Joe Saunders

In response to yesterday's A.L. FAAB column, Allen asks
What's your opinion of Joe Saunders?
Opinions are divided on Joe Saunders, and my opinion on him is divided as well.

Saunders was considered a can't miss pitching prospect out of Virginia Tech, and was drafted in the 1st round (12th overall) by the (then) Anaheim Angels in 2002. John Sickels described him as the "classic, college trained finesse lefty" in his 2003 book, saying that he had an "88-92 MPH fastball, a decent curve, and a change-up that was Saunders' best pitch.

Unfortunately, it was discovered that Saunders was pitching with a torn labrum, and he missed the entire 2003 season, choosing rehabilitation over surgery.


Since then, his results have been solid, even if they haven't been spectacular. Entering this year, Saunders had put up a 3.47 ERA in 501 minor league innings. This doesn't sound great, but keep in mind that this includes a 2.67 ERA in 134 2/3 IP at Salt Lake City, one of the worst pitcher's venues in the minor leagues.

One thing I don't like about Saunders' minor league numbers are the lack of Ks. I know that finesse pitchers, at any level, aren't going to strike a lot of guys out. On the other hand, Saunders' 6.38 K/IP rate didn't bode well for his major league future. A rate like this, while solid in the majors, isn't a terrific harbinger for major league success.

Sure enough, Saunders' 2006 was a rocky road. He had 9 starts where he gave up two runs or less, and in seven of these starts he went seven innings or more. Problem is, Joe had three outings were he gave up seven runs or more in 3 1/3 IP or less, and one doozy where he gave up five runs and couldn't get out of the first.

I didn't include this year's minor league numbers in Saunders' totals because, suddenly, he started striking guys out. Eighty-four guys in 86 1/3 IP, to be exact. Problem is, Saunders' ERA ballooned to a 5.11, while he also gave up 10 HR, a far cry from the groundball pitcher he had been in Los Angeles.

This is all a fascinating history lesson. But it fails to answer Allen's question. What do I think of Joe Saunders?

I think Joe Saunders could be a solid back end of the rotation starter for the Angels. I also think he's a good play for the rest of the season, especially as a wins play in 4x4. He's a pretty confident pitcher. He throws strikes and isn't afraid to challenge hitters. I'm willing to throw out this year's minor league performance as an aberration.

The only problem I have is that I'm not convinced, based on the minor league history, that Saunders is going to be much better than a fifth starter. From what I've read, it's not like he's added 2-4 MPH to his fastball, made his curve better, or turned his change into an unhittable pitch. The fact that he's riding the shuttle tells me that, on some level, the Angels know this; otherwise, Ervin Santana would have been sent to the minors a long time ago.

I think Saunders is a decent FAAB investment. But I wouldn't shell out big bucks for him, and I don't think an ERA under 4.50 can be guaranteed. He's a good play, but he's also a risky play if you're in contention. He's not a keep at $10 or more for 2008 if you're not in contention.

No comments: