Friday, July 27, 2007

Creative Trading at the Deadline

If you're playing for the money this year, particularly if you're playing for 1st place, your mandate when it comes to player acquisition is clear. You must acquire the best players to accumulate the best statistics so that you will win your league. No quarter asked, none given. Your goal is to win, so what your roster looks like in 2008 or beyond is meaningless to you right now. In a competitive carryover league, you will most likely not get the chance to win every year. You must take your opportunities when they come.

The more challenging issue at the deadline, though, is when you're already out of it and have already sold off your best parts. It's easy to sink into a malaise and do nothing the rest of the way, or wait for the obvious free agent to bid on or claim. This should be the time, though, that you are paying attention intently, not only to the free agent pool, but to what other owners' needs are as well.

A trade took place this week in my A.L.-only league between two non-contenders that I liked a lot for both sides. Mark Teahen ($12) was swapped for Brandon Wood ($10), Tyler Clippard ($10) and a minor league pick.

I like this deal a lot for the owner who acquired Wood. Clippard won't be worth $10 next year and isn't worth commenting on. But, assuming Wood is on the Opening Day roster next year, he has a chance of earning $20-25. To be certain, this is a risk and by no means a sure play. But the owner who acquired Wood is taking a chance that Wood will not only perform, but also garner more in trade than Teahen.

At this point, it is starting to look like Teahen's hot 2nd half of 2006 was a fluke. In his last 221 AB entering tonight, Teahen has only 1 HR and 2 SB. I still believe he might be a productive player who could consistently earn $15-20. However, that won't bring in the return in trade next year that Wood might.

Keep in mind, though, that the owner who acquired Teahen is one of our league's savvier owners. While also playing for next year, he believes he has less risk on his roster, and a $12 Teahen who will definitely produce stats is worth more to him than the chance that Wood will break out.

On the other side of the coin, avoid making offers at this time of year for the sake of making offers. And, if you are making offers from an uncompetitive position, remember to keep your trading partner's needs in mind.

A non-contender offered Scott Proctor ($10), Marcus Thames ($3) and David Dellucci ($4) to a contender for Todd Jones ($12).

Forget the salaries...the contending team obviously does not or should not care about those at this late date. The important question is: why would a contending team make this deal?

By this late point in the season, a top three or four owner probably has better options than Thames or Dellucci on his roster. If he doesn't, then he's not going to win anyway. It might make sense to move Jones if this owner had an ironclad lead in saves. But he doesn't, and trading Jones could lose him 2-3 points he can't afford to lose.

The non-contender's argument was that Jones might very well retire or not return as a closer next year in the A.L. That's fair enough. But it doesn't change the fact that Jones's owner needs Jones now, and isn't getting enough back to roll the dice on parting with him.

Think of your opponent before making any offer. I say this a lot, but I'm amazed at how even good owners forget this precept sometimes. Part of a great sales pitch is believing wholly in the pitch. If you truly are convinced that you're helping the other guy, he might believe it as well.

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