Monday, July 16, 2007

A.L. FAAB Log: July 16, 2007

Luis Vizcaino $5
The Yankees have a significant number of relievers that Joe Torre doesn't trust, but it seems that Vizcaino has moved back into Torre's good graces with a decent June and a great July to date. Very quietly, Vizcaino has picked up five wins, and with Kyle Farnsworth struggling, Vizcaino might be the back-up closer if Mariano Rivera pitches three days in a row and Torre simply wants to give him a rest. It's actually worth pointing out that, except for Vizcaino's K/BB rate, his other peripherals are pretty similar to previous years, so his high ERA is a fluke. He could win another 3-5 from here on out, especially if the Yankees aren't sellers.

Ron Villone $1
He's been solid so far, but the sample size is very limited. I'd be concerned because he's getting hit by lefties and absolutely dominating righties (.146 BA against). This completely contradicts his typical splits. It could be nothing, but it's more likely that he won't continue to shut right handers down like this, and the law of averages, as we all know, is a bitch. Add to this the fact that he's pitched 16 times since his call-up and has no wins to show for it, and Villone isn't a good bet going forward.

Bartolo Colon. Claimed by 10th and 8th place teams.
You might be inclined to look at the decent strikeout rate and think that Colon isn't finished, but watching him pitch tells you something else entirely. He'll have decent stretches here and there, but then he gets fatigued and starts trying to muscle the ball in there. The result is that he flies open, leaves the ball up and puts a meatball out there that looks like a BP fastball. I don't know if Colon's still hurt or just struggling with his mechanics right now, but I wouldn't take this gamble.

Greg Norton. Claimed by 9th place team.
In all likelihood, the best thing that could have happened to Greg Norton's owner happened: an early injury that forced him to replace Norton early and not get sentimentally attached to the idea of 2006. Norton could still contribute, but his very poor start and his advanced age both make it likely that the Devil Rays will simply try to move on, rather than try to get back the magic of last year. Norton is injury filler only at this point.

Trot Nixon. Claimed by 8th place team.
The owner who claimed Nixon sent me an e-mail early this afternoon asking me, "Is Trot Nixon finished?" I don't know, but he's not a good bet the rest of the way this year. His bat is a little slower, and whether that is a by-product of last year's injury or a sign that he's going to age poorly is not certain. The only positive number in Nixon's splits is his daytime numbers; for all I know, maybe he needs a contact lenses (or a new prescription, if he has contacts) because he can't see the ball at night. Nevertheless, the Indians will look to upgrade before the deadline and, if not, Nixon will lose AB to the younger OFs the Indians have on the roster now.

Zach Miner. Claimed by 5th place team.
Miner's putting up some good numbers out of the pen. It's clear he's not in the Tigers' long-term plans as a starting pitcher, but he could provide some value in relief on a team that is winning about 60 percent of their games.

Jose Capellan. Claimed by 1st place team.
Capellan won't close this year for the Tigers, but it's a thin bullpen and he is already seeing some action in games close and late. Miner might be a safer play this year, but Capellan has some long term potential and could still prove to be an electric pitcher.

1 comment:

Toz said...

Just to add a little insight into the Ron Villone pick-up (yes that was me).... With Haren, Sabathia and Lackey and 700 IP, I looked for relatively harmless, low inning guys like Villone. Under normal circumstances, I would agree with Mike; he is not in a position to pick up wins or saves.

I also picked up Capellan, who could be a dark house to pick up a save now and again - and if something were to happen to Todd Jones (also on my roster), he is a logical guy to fill-in.

Hopefully, these theories work out.