N.L. Dump Targets - Pitchers (Part II)

At long last, the conclusion of my series on dump targets in N.L. only leagues. More pitchers for your consideration and review.

Jason Bergmann: I'd like to see better performance from Bergmann post-injury, but his over all numbers are difficult to complain about. I don't like flyball pitchers, but RFK is one of the few good places to be a flyball guy. His interiors are solid, particularly the K/IP, and I think Bergmann will be a solid, if not spectacular, major league starter. Second-tier target.

Chad Billingsley: He should be in the Dodgers rotation next year, but I would make the argument that he should be in their rotation this year. As a result, you're taking a risk if you dump for him. I think it's a good risk, but keep in mind that it's a risk. The problem isn't Billingsley, who could earn $15 out of the pen; the problem is that you might wind up having to pick up some schmoe off of the waiver wire to make innings if Billingsley's in the pen, and that schmoe will put up a 6 ERA, ruin your season, and lead to many, many tears.

Angel Guzman, Carlos Marmol: They're lumped together because they both have a shot at becoming the Cubs closer at some point. Personally, I think that Pinella will favor the veteran as long as he's the manager, and Marmol's high walk rate will turn him off from using him as closer. Worth taking either one as a throw-in, but don't look at Marmol's great ERA/WHIP and overpay.

Rich Hill: It's all about the homeruns. Some pitchers are simply always going to give up homeruns, while for others it's a sign of mediocre ability or worse. With Hill, it's clearly the former. He's got some nasty stuff (I particularly like his curve ball), but he's still raw enough that he's mistake prone. I think this could get better, but if it doesn't I think he'll miss enough bats that he'll still be a Top 15-20 pitcher. Buy in the hopes of more.

Noah Lowry: His BB/IP is much higher, while Lowry's HR/IP is significantly lower. I don't know if one has to do with the other, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. On the whole, Lowry's 2007 is more in line with his first two years than with 2006, so I would call him a solid but not spectacular pitcher. He's nice to have at the right price, but I don't expect a career breakout.

John Maine: As much as anti-New York baseball fans love to needle Mets fans for giving away Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano (and rightfully so, I must add), they're strangely quiet about the Mets stealing John Maine from the Orioles for Kris Benson. Maine is a complete pitcher, a guy who throws three quality pitches for strikes without throwing one dominant one. I think he's pitching a little bit over his head, but he's on a strong team and shouldn't have a problem racking up 15+ wins with nice ERA/WHIP for the next few years. He should be in or near the top tier of dump targets.

Sean Marshall: I think he's a solid, middle of the rotation guy, while the ERA says that he's a strong #2 starter. His OPS against nearly matches last year, making me think his ERA should be higher. His other interior numbers are solid, so I don't think Marshall is a terrible risk. He's just not a certain ace.

Oliver Perez: It's your call. I honestly don't know. His 2007 looks almost exactly like his 2004, with far fewer strikeouts. He's looked good when I've seen him pitch, but I'm still gun shy due to past performance issues. I can keep blabbing, but the first seven words of this comment say enough.

Takashi Saito: I understand the risk against dumping for a 37-year old pitcher, and I cautioned against doing so in the A.L. under Al Reyes. But, at some point, you have to look at numbers like these and throw age-related caution to the wind. In 117 major league innings, Saito has a 1.92 ERA and a .174 BA against. That's pretty unreal.