Ben Francisco $10. Other bids $6, $2, $1
Years ago, before John Sickels and Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, I think there might have been a minor bidding war on Ben Francisco, at least amongst the teams playing for 2008. His Roto numbers in the minors have been solid and, in particular, he's shown some good speed. Nowadays, I think we have enough data on minor league OPSs and MLEs to know that Francisco projects as a solid regular, at best, but might be more of a platoon or even 4th OF. He was having a huge year at AAA this year (.329/6/34/15 in 240 AB), but even this is misleading; only the batting average is different than a lot of his other minor league stats, and 240 AB is a small sample size when it comes to average. Francisco's bigger problem is that the Indians have their usual logjam in the OF, so he's probably not going to start much, even if he stays up in the majors. This is a better bid for 2008.
Gary Glover $6
I talked about this phenomenon in last week's FAAB write-up, but it bears repeating that Gary Glover should go for a lot more in leagues where there's a tighter saves pack, and 3-5 saves might make a difference of two or three points. That wouldn't make a $15 bid on Glover a good bid, mind you. His career numbers are pedestrian, and I'm not convinced that Glover won't put up a 5+ ERA while trying to save games for the Devil Rays. The situation is worth watching though. Keep in mind that the Devil Rays might try to move a healthy Al Reyes to a contender, and Glover could still get first crack at saves when that happens. Having experienced the joy of owning Seth McClung down the stretch last year so I could try and get some garbage saves, I'll warn you that your ERA/WHIP can be hurt big time by a pitcher like this.
Kason Gabbard $6
Gabbard's a pretty risky play given his high HR/IP rate in the minors this year, his high BB/IP rate in the majors this year, and the fact that he's never been considered a top prospect. He's best used as a wins play, but keep in mind that he throws a lot of pitches per batter, so he's not going to get past the sixth very often. He's put up decent starts against good offenses (Atlanta, Detroit), so he could surprise.
Jerry Owens $3
Back for a second go-round, Owens stole two more bases this week, bringing his total to five. He's still flailing as a hitter, and I'm not sold on him contributing long-term as a major leaguer, but he's worth keeping in your line-up if you need steals and can take the probable batting average hit.
Joaquin Benoit $2
Last month, when I wrote about Benoit, I said that there wasn't much chance that he could get saves in this bullpen. However, there are several rumblings out of Texas that the Rangers could trade both Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka. If that happens, Benoit could very well get a shot at closing. I don't think this will happen. Otsuka is cheap and under the Rangers control for a while longer yet, so I don't think they'll trade him unless they're bowled over. Even Gagne might go, but there have been conflicting reports about his no trade clause, and I'm not sure the Rangers are going to be able to move him within the limited parameters of the clause.
Garrett Olson $2
I like Olson as a #3 starter long-term. Short-term, I think he might be up a little early and needs more time at Triple-A. His minor league peripherals are all fine except for his HR/IP, but they aren't the dominant numbers I want to see in AAA before making an investment. He struggled in his first major league start, though that might have just been a case of the yips. It sounds like Steve Trachsel won't be ready soon, so Olson will get at least two or three more turns in the O's rotation.
Ryan Raburn $1
He was absolutely ripping it up at Toledo this year, but Raburn isn't going to supplant Carlos Guillen or Placido Polanco. His best bet is as a utility IF, but Omar Infante has more versatility, and Jim Leyland does love his veterans. Raburn was moved to the OF this year, but I still think he might be the victim of low expectations. He's a longshot to ever be a starter, and he's not a good play this year.
Manny Delcarmen $1
Delcarmen has put up some pretty solid numbers since his move to the pen in AA in 2005. His major league numbers looked fairly pedestrian last year, but keep in mind that his BABIP was very high. 2007 has seen an extreme correction the other way. Delcarmen looks like a solid middle relief option, though his chances for wins and saves are very low.
Adam Melhuse. Claimed by 9th place team
With Gerald Laird flailing, I thought Melhuse would get a few more AB with the Rangers than he did with the A's. I apparently thought wrong.
Royce Clayton. Claimed by 6th place team.
An early lesson for me in Rotisserie League Baseball came in 1992, when an owner called out Royce Clayton in the first round. I was hoping to grab Clayton for $5 or $6, and was shocked when he went for $12. The owner who bought him was happy, but the owner who called him out was even happier that he had sucked $12 out of the room for a risky rookie who - as it turned out - had a terrible year. I didn't know it at the time, but this was what Alex Patton called a Stage Two auction, and I was able to buy Barry Bonds for $39 and Larry Walker for $25 because everyone else targeting the Next Big Thing.
It looks like Clayton's career is finally just about over. He's 37 years old, and the flashes of his old speed he used to show off aren't even there anymore. Today, Clayton's an example of a player who wasn't a "bargain", not even if he went for $1. He went for $4 in my auction, and the owner who grabbed him was proud that he filled his last offensive slot with an everyday player. An argument could be made that he would have been better off spending $1 on a scrub and using those extra $3 to buy someone better at another position. I like moving the chains and getting AB as well, but you have to consider whom you're buying. There are some major league regulars who simply aren't worth the space on your roster.
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