One significant caveat here is that pitcher auction prices tend to fluctuate far more than hitter prices. If you see a pitcher here whom you think is too expensive in your league to dump for, you could very well be correct.
Jeremy Accardo: I would avoid Accardo as a 2008 target. First of all, the Blue Jays' obvious goal is going to be to put B.J. Ryan back into the role as soon as he's healthy. More importantly, though, is the fact that Accardo hasn't been all that good after his lights out start. In his last 13 2/3 IP, he has a 5.27 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Obviously, this is a very small sample size, but at the very least this is a trend that's worth watching. The biggest problem with dumping for a guy like Accardo is that a contender who has him will probably want a closer back in return. If I'm trading a closer and getting a cheaper reliever back, that reliever better be a closer.
Brian Bannister: His numbers have been good overall, but three of his last fours starts have been iffy, at best. I see Bannister as more of a 4.2 ERA/1.32 WHIP guy. He's someone I'd like at $2 or $3, but not at his $10 free agent price.
Daniel Cabrera: He's starting to remind me of Bobby Witt. People will keep getting excited and keep bidding serious Roto loot because Cabrera will have the odd game where he's electric and makes the best hitters in baseball look foolish. Sadly, those games are few and far between.
Fernando Cabrera: I include Cabrera because he's clearly got a great arm, and has the most raw talent of anyone in the Cleveland bullpen. That being said, he gets into long stretches where he struggles with his control and completely psyches himself out. I'd pass if I were rebuilding. You'll be surprised how many relievers are sitting around in the endgame in 4x4 that also have great stuff and/or will wind up closing at some point.
Fausto Carmona: Watch yourself with Carmona. He's a decent pitcher, but some owners are more likely to look at the 10 wins and even the sub-4 ERA and think that Fausto's the next big thing. The 1.35 WHIP and the low K/IP suggests that Carmona's been luckier than good and could regress in the 2nd half this year or in 2008. He still might be better suited for the pen, as his numbers slowly regress as the game goes on. I like his sweet G/F ratio, which is a good sign that he won't completely blow up in your face.
John Danks: 16 HR in 89 2/3 IP. That's just about all you need to know at the moment; you can't own Danks while he's giving up HR at such a prolific rate. He's also 22 years old, and probably is up too soon. When will he be an asset? 2009? 2010? With pitchers, you just don't know, and there's nothing in Danks' current numbers that will tell you.
Octavio Dotel: Do not target a pitcher who will be a free agent at the end of the year. I only mention this because I've seen owners make this mistake. Always try to structure your dump deals around younger players with growth potential.
Chad Gaudin: I love the way much of the fantasy press is bowing down at what a steal Gaudin has been this year. To be sure, his 8 wins and 2.88 ERA have been a huge asset to Roto teams, and his price tag was also just right, as he either went for $1 or $2 in the endgame or went undrafted. However, I'm still quite skeptical in the long-term. That 1.37 WHIP tells me the ERA is a product of a lot of luck and Gaudin's going to see his ERA rise. I think he's worth freezing on the cheap next year (obviously), but be careful here.
Zach Greinke: Is Greinke the closer in 2008 for Kansas City? I don't know, but I wouldn't pay the price of a cheap closer to find out.
Jeremy Guthrie: His numbers need to be put into perspective. His BABIP is a factor of luck, and while his HR/IP rate is solid, it's not like Guthrie is a groundball machine on the order of Jake Westbrook or Chien Ming-Wang. I think Guthrie is more realistically a pitcher who should be putting up an ERA between 3.5 or 4 and a WHIP somewhere in the 1.25-1.28 range. Keep in mind that this is very, very good. He's worth targeting, but don't go crazy. He's not Dan Haren in the making.Phil Hughes: Love the potential here. Wouldn't give up too much without seeing him pitch in the majors a few more times. I'm worried that the 77-year old owner thinks that there aren't many sunsets left to see and will surrender Hughes to get a National Leaguer masher and leave me holding the bag.
Casey Janssen: Like Accardo, Janssen is someone I wouldn't necessarily target in a bullpen in flux. Unlike Accardo, Janssen might actually go a little cheaper in trade since he isn't currently closing. His numbers overall are also a little better. A great guy to target as a throw-in, just to see what happens.
Adam Loewen I'd wait to see how he looks once he's healthy.
Andrew Miller: The data are inconclusive. He's had three very good or excellent starts, two so-so starts and one poor one. Clearly, the Tigers believe in him, and he's holding his own, but I don't want a $10 freeze who is only going to earn $7-9, which is very well what could happen with Miller. But, like I said, who knows?
Brandon Morrow: He's got incredibly nasty stuff when he's on, but he walks waaaaaaaaay too many batters. He's walked more than a batter per inning, incredibly enough. The knock on Morrow at the beginning of the year was that he was a one-pitch pitcher, and when hitters learned to wait on the 97-98 MPH fastball, they would hit it. Now I'm hearing that Morrow is doing a better job mixing in his complimentary pitches, but take this compliment with a grain of salt, as Morrow threw up an 8 ERA in June and walked 15 in 9 innings. He needs time in Triple-A, and with Putz behind him, his ceiling as a reliever is only so high anyway.
Pat Neshek: Middle relievers are a dime for three dozen, and I normally wouldn't recommend them. However, Neshek's numbers are great and Ron Gardenhire has already grumbled about Neshek having the "closer's mentality." There is no such thing, but all I care about is who might be getting the ball in the 9th. Joe Nathan's not going anywhere this year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins move him this winter if the price is high. Keep an eye on this situation.
Jon Papelbon: The only question in my mind is health, which is a question with any pitcher. Otherwise, Papelbon is a grade A-1 target in a dump deal. He's a guy I give up two top-tier players for in a heartbeat in 4x4, where a top closer can easily earn $40 and up.
J.J. Putz: It's funny how I haven't heard any rumblings out of Seattle about Putz being hurt in quite a while. Like Papelbon, Putz is a grade A-1 target, and someone I wouldn't be afraid to pay top dollar for, even if he's only a closer.
Al Reyes: See Octavio Dotel
Nate Robertson: I include Robertson because his numbers year-to-date scream fluke more than trend. His HR/IP rate is actually a little better than in years past and, while his K/IP has dropped, it hasn't dropped so precipitously that he can't be an asset. Still, his skill set makes me think that 2005 is a more realistic expectation for Robertson than 2006. Get him as a throw-in or for a farm player if you like Robertson.
Ervin Santana: I don't think he's this bad, but chasing players like Santana when you're rebuilding is a losing strategy.
James Shields: Despite his recent struggles, I still like Shields a lot. While Paul Byrd has received a lot of silly publicity because he has a similar number of wins and walks, Shields has only walked 19 hitters in 18 starts, resulting in a WHIP near one. That's dominance. While I do expect him to take his lumps against the Yanks and Red Sox in the second half, I don't think that Shields is a fluke. Keep hoping that Rotoworld, particularly Matthew Pouliot, keeps talking Shields down and thus driving his price down. Amazingly, there are still those who don't believe.
Huston Street: I like Street when he's healthy, but that's starting to become an increasingly larger "if" over time. Street's injury would be better dealt with through surgery; I'm concerned that he's going to come back later this year, re-injure himself, and have surgery that puts his 2008 in doubt. He's a great target if healthy, but the risk is high.
Justin Verlander: He's going to be a little more expensive in Roto dollars than most of the other names on this list, but Verlander has the highest ceiling of any starting pitcher here. What's scary to me is that I don't even think that he's reached his peak yet. Don't be afraid to overpay for a guy who I think is going to be a top five A.L. starter for years to come.
Chien-Ming Wang: I don't like guys with very low K/IP rates, but I'm going to have to start eating a little crow on Wang. He keeps the ball on the ground and in the park, and he shows no fear. You probably don't want him anchoring your Roto staff, but he's a strong #2, and if he falters a little you won't be as disappointed.
Jered Weaver: I still like him a lot, and believe that his poor start makes him a great buy low candidate in terms of dump deals. His ERA by month this year is 5.4, 3.82 and 2.01, and he was definitely rusty in his first three starts in April.
Joel Zumaya: See Adam Loewen.
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