A.L. FAAB Log 7/2/07

Jeff Weaver $5. Other bids $2, $1.
Anyone who purchased Jeff Weaver at auction knows how bad he was, but for those who didn't, you might not realize that Weaver had a 14.32 ERA and a 2.591 WHIP in his first six starts. I doubt anyone kept him around for all six of those starts, but Weaver still hurt a lot of teams this past April. The Mariners buried him on the D.L. on May 11: presumably due to an injury, but really to allow him to work out his mechanical kinks in Triple-A. He came back on June 9 and put up four solid innings against the Padres. Since then, including that outing, Weaver has the following line: 32 2/3 IP, 29 H, 6 BB, 18 K, 6 ER, 2 HR, 2 W, 0 L, 1.071 WHIP, 1.65 ERA.
So what's Weaver doing differently? Lookout Landing said this about his last start:

Weaver was doing the exact same thing that he'd done in his last two starts - attack the batters with a wild assortment of arm slots and pitch speeds. There wasn't anything special about any individual pitch, but once again, it was the unpredictability as a whole that gave him the edge.

Do I think Weaver is for real? Well, I don't think he's going to throw up a sub-2 ERA. But, like Jeff from Lookout Landing, I do think that Weaver can be a capable back end of the rotation starter. The caveats are obvious. I haven't seen Weaver pitch, so I have to take Jeff's word for it, but the 4.96 K/9 IP rate since Weaver's come back from the shelf isn't much better than the 4.5 K/IP he was putting up pre-injury. His G/F ratio is actually more favorable to the HR now: he has a 0.79 G/F since his return versus a 1.43 G/F pre-injury. In other words, Weaver's "arm slots" and "pitch speeds" might help him be a useful Roto starter, but don't count on him continuing to pitch like this.

Andy Gonzalez $5. Other bid $1.
I used to like Ozzie Guillen, but now he's starting to remind me of Joe Torre, what with all of the players he's suddenly decided he doesn't like. The result in Chicago is that Andy Gonzalez, a guy who projects as either a super utility man or a career minor leaguer, is now the White Sox starting leftfielder for the foreseeable future. I think that Ryan Sweeney is overrated, too, but he's a superior option in the OF to this guy. The nicest thing you can say about Gonzalez is that he's got OK plate discipline. His MLE makes him look like a .240-.250 hitter with little to no power. The speed he had in the minors will probably go away. Gonzalez is a desperation FAAB play, even in A.L. only leagues.

Paul Shuey $2. Other bids $2, $1, $1, $1
Where this bid lands is going to depend on how saves are spread out in your league. In mine, the top seven teams own 13 of the 14 American League closers, so acquiring even a short-term, 5-10 save guy isn't going to change much.

The consensus at Rotoworld is that Ray is still OK, but the quotes from interim manager Dave Trembley make me nervous, to say the least. "I don't think he's been overworked." was the most disturbing part of this narrative: Ray's biggest problem is that the Orioles have been throwing him out there for 30-40 pitches at a time and are surprised that he's getting burned out. Personally, I don't think Shuey's a very good candidate to get more than one or two saves, but I thought the same thing about Alan Embree a few weeks ago. If you need saves, and the category's packed tight, bid.

UPDATE - Of course, then Trembley threw Shuey out there in the sixth inning of tonight's game against the White Sox. Bid cautiously, is what I meant to say.

Howie Clark $2
Clark hits for empty average and does little else. This is only a solid bid if you own Troy Glaus and believe he's getting traded this month but, even then, I don't think Clark is worth the roster slot.

Jose Capellan $1. Other bid $1
Once a top prospect with the Braves, Capellan has spent a few unremarkable years with the Brewers and now finds himself with the Tigers after Milwaukee finally gave up. Capellan is a remarkable talent who just hasn't put it all together and, like a number of pitchers before him, might never do so. He's worth a low bid in A.L. only, just because the Tigers bullpen is thin with Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney out, and Todd Jones is still struggling. Capellan could quickly move to the front of the line if he gets out of the blocks quickly with Detroit.

Edwar Ramirez $1.
If you haven't heard of this guy, you're not following minor league baseball. Ramirez wasn't considered any kind of prospect before the season started, but he put up this line so far in the minors in 2007:

Level	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K
AA	3	0	0.54	9	0	0	1	16.2	6	1	1	1	8	33
AAA	0	0	0.67	15	0	0	4	26.2	13	2	2	0	9	47

Prospect or not, 80 strikeouts in 44 1/3 IP is simply silly. I can see why he wasn't a prospect. Ramirez was an undistinguished farm hand for the Angels before they released him prior to the 2004 season. Ramirez pitched lights out in independent league baseball in 2005 and in the Florida State League in 2006, but a 25-year old dominating FSL hitters is hardly newsworthy. Finally, everyone has to cry uncle, including the Yankees, who called him up. The scouting report says average fastball but wicked changeup, but I suspect that Ramirez must change speeds exceptionally well to have put up those numbers. He might be a weapon the first time around. The question is whether or not Joe Torre trusts him. Rookie pitchers have a very hard time logging useful innings in New York, as Joe likes his pitchers cagey.

Kameron Loe $1. Other bid $1.
After getting shellacked by the Tigers on June 7, Loe has strung together three solid outings in a row, and thus predictably has generated some interest in A.L. only leagues. Some people are excited about Loe, claiming that he's suddenly getting outs on the ground like he did in 2005, when he put up a 3.42 ERA. I call B.S., as Loe has been getting them out on the ground all year, and is probably the recipient of good luck more than him magically figuring something out. The grounders will help Loe, but he's still a borderline major league starter pitching in a terrible pitchers' venue. Be careful here.

Brandon Fahey $1
With Miguel Tejada on the D.L. and Melvin Mora day-to-day, Fahey seems to be getting the lion's share of the AB at shortstop. Between Fahey, Chris Gomez and Fred Bynum, Fahey's the best defensive option, but is a lousy Roto option. He's an acceptable third middle infielder in an A.L. only...in 1985.

Macay McBride $1
Like Capellan, McBride has a chance to move up to the front of the line quickly in the Tigers pen, after the Tigers acquired him for Wil Ledezma. McBride throws fast but is wild, wild, wild. He could probably use half a year in the minors to get straightened out. Right now, he projects as a lefty specialist and is not a good Roto investment.

John Thomson $1
Thomson's goal this year is to prove he's healthy, so all he really wants to do is show he can go six or seven innings on a consistent basis by the time the curtain closes on 2007. He's on a poor team, so it won't matter much if he wins too many games. He's a poor bet for success, in other words, and is only worthy if you're desperate for starting pitching. Someone in your league will be if you're not.

Jorge Cantu. Claimed by 8th place and 6th place teams.
This is a next year play, but Cantu is playing himself out of a major league roster spot at the putrid rate that he's going. You can blame the Devil Rays for roster mismanagement for allowing Cantu to rot on the bench and get only 52 AB this year, but Cantu and his 543 OPS hasn't exactly made a case for getting additional AB. He needs a trade to a team that will suck up the fact that he's a liability defensively and will post a poor OBP. Right now, it's hard to see a good fit here.

Eric O'Flaherty. Claimed by 6th place and 2nd place teams.
Lefty specialist for the Mariners who is off to a solid start. He's shown some signs of hittability the last couple of weeks; don't be afraid to bail on a guy like this if you do grab him.

Brian Bruney. Claimed by 3rd place team.
Bruney's stuff is nasty, and his numbers are pretty damn great, too. Unfortunately, he's better in reality than in Roto. The 24 walks in 34 IP haven't hurt Bruney's peripherals, but they'll kill your ratio. In 4x4, he's not worth it. Oddly enough, he's the rare reliever who has significantly more value in 5x5. I suspect that Bruney will get his control down at some point in the next 3-5 years and be a top-tier closer in 2012 for someone. How's that for a prediction?