Valuation - Midseason Edition

Brett added his two cents to the discussion on valuation earlier in the week. He made some great points, but I want to focus on one thing he said about values (I can always come back to his other comments later).

I like the "snapshot" comment. The auction is a snapshot of what they are worth on the day of the auction. Just like today, on May 31st, you can look at the first 2 month "snapshot" and say that Jose Reyes has been worth $60 or whatever, and Pujols has been worth $18 or whatever, and Jorge Julio has been worth -$30 or whatever.

Brett picked up on what I was conveying quite nicely with the "snapshot" analogy. One of the problems with this analogy, though, is that Patton $ values aren't perfect when it comes to calculating values midseason. There are two significant reasons why.

First, players like Jose Reyes throw off the formulas significantly at this early juncture of the season. Entering tonight's action, Reyes was on pace to hit 5 HR, drive in 76 and hit .316. Well, that's nice.

Oh yeah, he's also going to steal 88 bases.

Rototimes's Player Rater says that Reyes is worth $54. Plugging those projected totals into Patton's software says that Reyes would be worth $56. Since the Patton software isn't adjusted for this season's actual totals, it's entirely possible that Rototimes is absolutely correct. I'm not debating value at the moment. The question here is: will Reyes continue to produce at a $54 pace.

It's possible, though unlikely. Reyes earned $48 last year and is only 24 years old. As scary as it is to contemplate, he could continue getting better. In terms of his earnings, I think the real question is: will Reyes keep running at this pace? The answer is probably not, especially if the Mets clinch a play-off slot and don't want Reyes to risk injury.

A much better example of this in-season conundrum is Eric Byrnes.

Byrnes is on pace to go 25/89/27/.310. Rototimes says that this would make Byrnes a $39 player; Patton says $37. The question is: will Byrnes maintain this pace?

Again, it's not entirely out of the question. Except for the batting average, the other numbers would come very close to matching what Byrnes did last season. The law of averages tells me, though, that Byrnes should come down to earth somewhat and is more likely to hit .280 or so than top the .300 mark. Those same numbers with a .281 batting average would make Byrnes a $31 player in Patton's book.

I've noticed that there's a line in the sand when it comes to player evaluation and valuation. It typically falls sometime in mid to late May. Before that, no serious analyst would look at a player and assume that he's "on pace" to do anything. Tip of the cap to A-Rod, but I don't believe anyone seriously thought he was going to hit 120 HR.

Once Memorial Day rolls around, though, it's time to start examining how likely it is a player will keep up a blistering pace or continue plodding along at a slow one. It's useful to know that Reyes is worth $54 or Byrnes is worth $39. But part of our analysis has to include how much we think that player is worth at the end of the season.

From this standpoint, midseason valuation is imperfect. Chad Gaudin is currently the 8th best starting pitcher in the American League. Most of us would guess that Gaudin won't keep up this pace. But where will he wind up? And how valuable is he in trade?

So that's the first piece of the midseason valuation puzzle. We have to make these adjustments as we go along. Stubbornly holding on to a Gaudin because he's a Top 10 American League pitcher would be a mistake, but so would trading him for nothing because he's pitching over his head.

The second piece of the valuation puzzle is, once again, a more esoteric component. I had intended to write about this tonight, but I think it's enough of a separate component that I'll leave it for another post.