Kevin Slowey $19. Other bids $18, $16, $15, $11, $10, $5, $1
For players like Slowey, I'll probably spend more time writing about the FAAB mechanics of my league than the player. If you're reading this blog, you probably know who Slowey is, how good he might be (he was the #71 prospect in Baseball America's 2007 list), and what his ceiling is. My feeling is that he slots in as either a #2 or a #3, that he'll do very well the first time around and then struggle a little as hitters make the adjustments, but then have a successful if not stellar career.
My bid was $18, so I missed by $2, as I would have lost the tiebreak. The winner of this FAAB battle has a combined three points in ERA/WHIP, and probably needed to win this battle badly. My bid was price enforcing. That's not to say I didn't want Slowey, but I'm comfortably in second place with 75 points and don't have to empty the bullets out of my FAAB gun the way the $19 bidder did.
The next three highest bids were from teams playing for next year. It's a long shot that Slowey will be a freeze at $15 or $16, but I think these guys were thinking they'd FAAB Slowey and flip him for something if he pitched well.
In my opinion, this bidding was more than a little tepid for what possibly might be the best pitching prospect still available. My supposition is that a few owners are waiting for Roger Clemens. I'm not bothering, because there are four teams with $90 or more, and I suspect the team with $98 will buy Clemens with a shut out bid, even though he doesn't need Clemens as much as he needs a hitter.
J.P. Howell $12
The winning bid comes from a rebuilding team, so I guess the idea once again is to flip Howell if he turns into something. The bid is obviously way too high, but Howell could still amount to something, as he's only three years removed from college and is only 24 years old. Rotoworld's down on the Devil Rays for giving Howell another opportunity, but I think that the Rays might as well see what they have in Howell; he's too young and shows too many flashes of brilliance to relegate to the Quad A trash heap.
Jerry Owens $8. Other bids $6, $5, $4, $3, $2.
I bid $5 on Owens, and regretted that I didn't bid $9 the second I saw the results this afternoon. Owens is a lottery ticket for any Roto owner looking for cheap speed, and $8 could be a great price when we look back at the end of the season. He's stole 23 bases at Triple-A already, and it looks like Ozzie Guillen's going to lead Owens off and let him run like crazy. My only solace is that the team that's first in steals grabbed Owens and this team doesn't trade much. It's possible that all Owens will do is allow this team to build up its already formidable steals lead.
Andrew Sonnanstine $4. Other bid $2
This is another nice bid, and another rebuilding team grabbed him. In our league, any FAAB bids under $10 turn into a $10 salary for next year, so this isn't all that great. Sonnanstine is a pitcher who gets by on guile as opposed to speed, and for a pitcher who doesn't blow the doors off his HR/IP rate is troubling. It's not bad, but there isn't a lot of room for error. Tampa Bay pitchers generally don't garner big bids since they're generally not good wins plays plus they'll inevitably have to face the Red Sox and Yankees multiple times. Still, I like this bid better than the Howell bid and better than the Baek bid earlier in the year.
Willie Bloomquist $2
$1 too much, but follows my rule of "if you want the guy, bid $2". You can't count on guys like Bloomquist for speed, since guys like this can get buried at the bottom of the bench. Bloomquist only has 42 AB and has one lousy steal to show for it. This is the owner who bought Owens, the owner who already has a nine SB lead on the next team. I'd say this guy is trying to do the no power strategy, but his pitching is buried and he's trying to trade speed away, not power.
David Riske $2
He got cut early after a horrid April, but Riske turned around and put together a lights-out May, throwing up a WHIP of around one and not allowing a run across 13 1/3 IP. He's back in Buddy Bell's good graces, and will pick up the odd save when Octavio Dotel is tired or hurt. Riske might be a better play in June or July, if Dotel gets traded. Joakim Soria if healthy is probably first in line for saves, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Riske grab all or some of the closer job at some point this year.
Mike Rabelo $1
He's gotten a surprisingly high number of AB for an Ivan Rodriguez back-up, but I'd still avoid.
Matt Guerrier. Claimed by 11th place team and 10th place team.
I keep saying Guerrier can't possibly continue to put up a .155 BA against, but Guerrier continues to do it. In 4x4, ride Guerrier until he cools off. He could be one of those relievers who earn $20 this year.
Chad Orvella. Claimed by 8th place team
Claimed by a team playing for 2008, so I have to assume this is a 2008 play. The odds aren't good though, as Orvella is tanking again and managers tend to have short memories when it comes to potential closers.
3 comments:
I bid $8 on Owens and hope that is a winning bid in my league. Like you, I see lots of steals in play here.
However, I only bid $10 on Slowey and do not expect to win the auction. Frankly, some of his minor league numbers are a lot like Sonnanstine's (k/bb and k/ip). Slowey is a fly ball pitcher and could have HR problems in the majors too.
I watched the first few innings of Slowey's start on Friday, and I wasn't all that impressed. He was topping out at 88-89 mph, and the A's kept fouling off pitches that probably would strike out minor leaguers. His control is good, so he shouldn't kill anybody's staff, but $10 was the most I was willing to pay for him too.
Slowey is a guy who will not blow you away. The key to Slowey is keeping hitters off-balance. I think Mike is right on point - he will be fairly successful early on and against poor lineups. As hitters make adjustments and the film gathers, he is going to get knocked around a little bit. Still, I think this is a solid play.
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