Yesterday, I talked about one of the inherent problems in establishing player values during the season. Players do not produce the same level of statistics month in and month out. Using two months to determine player value isn't entirely without merit, but you need to use your best judgment to ensure that you don't overpay for Eric Byrnes and his $39 season (to date) in a trade.
Two other factors that alter values as the season plays out are injuries and players brought into your league's player pool, whether via interleague trade or minor league call-up.
Before the season begins, no serious projection model attempts to predict the unpredictable when it comes to injuries. Players with a significant injury history, such as J.D. Drew or Milton Bradley, might have some AB shaved off of their projections. But no sensible forecaster would have tried to predict that Hank Blalock would be out of the line-up until August and whittle his AB away accordingly.
Last year, Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui were both shelved with injuries that cut their seasons significantly short. Sheffield only batted 151 times; Matsui 172. As a result, fewer statistics were purchased on Auction Day. Furthermore, the value of each HR, RBI and SB increased as a result.
Sheffield and Matsui combined in 2006 for the following line: 323 AB, 97 H, 15 HR, 54 RBI, 6 SB, .300 BA. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system projected them to combine for: 1185 AB, 351 H 53 HR, 206 RBI, 9 SB, .296 BA.
Filling in the gap between Sheffield/Matsui's projected line and their actual, injury-shortened line, we can say that Sheffield/Matsui would have added 862 AB, 254 H, 38 HR, 152 RBI, 3 SB, .295 BA to the Auction Day pool of statistics.
(Yes, I already see the flaw with this methodology. Melky Cabrera picked up a healthy portion of the at-bats "lost" by Sheffield and Matsui and was a free agent in my league. So he didn't count against the draft standings. However, if Cabrera had been on a roster, a lot of these at-bats would have been replaced).
I chose two of the more extreme examples from 2006. When you go across an entire league, then the "lost" statistics really add up.
We bought a total of 65,818 AB in our auction in 2006. Our league finished with 72,470 AB. A grand total of 6,652 AB were picked up during the season by our league.
This is one way of looking at it. Another way is that the players who were projected to get those AB, like Sheffield and Matsui, "lost" those AB somewhere along the way.
Rototimes' own player projection formula provides some excellent insights into how these lost AB increase a player's value if he makes it to the finish line without getting hurt.
Carl Crawford's projected 2007 line is 19 HR, 81 RBI, 54 SB, .309 BA in 608 AB. His actual 2006 line? 18/77/58/.303 in 600 AB even.
Without knowing anything about valuation systems, formulas, or even simple algebra, you would probably make an educated guess that Crawford's 2006 statistics and his projected 2007 line are worth almost the same, give or take a dollar or two. But you'd be dead wrong.
Rototimes says Crawford's 2006 line was worth $45. They then say that his 2007 line will be worth $37.
Is something wrong with their formulas?
No. But they are measuring two different things.
In 2006, Carl Crawford is being measured against the pool of players available in auction. At least this is what I am assuming. However, even if he is being measured against the American League universe, it is clear to me that the Melky Cabreras of the world aren't going to 100% replace the Gary Sheffields and Hideki Matsuis.
The 2007 projections are not taking into account the injuries, trades to the other league, and plain ineffectiveness that will occur. Experienced Roto players know that these things will happen; we just don't know which players will be affected, so we don't predict to whom these bad things will happen.
As a result, the Rototimes projections get skewed across the board. If Carl Crawford produces Rototimes' 2007 projection, it's more likely that he'll earn $45 than $37.
This finally (and perhaps mercifully) brings me back to my original point. Even in early June, not all of these dramas within the master drama that is Rotisserie Baseball have played out. As a result, extrapolating Crawford's projected stats now means it's more likely they're worth closer to $37 than they are to $45.
This is because fewer players have flamed out due to injury or ineffectiveness. And even the players who have done so still have a higher percentage of AB or IP compared to their peers who have played in every game. It isn't until the season is played out that the full impact of missing AB is felt on dollar values.
Keep this in mind when assessing your team's value. The value of your players will actually go up as the season goes on if they maintain their pace. This is yet another piece of the valuation puzzle to keep in mind as you examine trade possibilities and build your team, both for this year and for next year as well.
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