brutus wonders if he's possibly found a window into Stage 4.
We now have a rule where unspent auction money (260 budget) is added to our 100 FAAB budget. Everyone still operates under the "don't leave money at the auction table" strategy. I'm starting to wonder whether there is a Stage 4 strategy where you optimize the auction to leave yourself a significant advantage in FAAB money post auction. Might work well for a "stars and scrubs" approach.This analysis needs to be divided into two parts.
First, what is the impact of "leaving money on the table"? How damaging is it to a typical Rotisserie team to not spend its entire $260?
As brutus points out, most teams prefer to spend their entire $260 at the auction. Intuitively, this makes sense. In the waning moments of most auctions, most teams have $2 or $3 left, and making a $2 or $3 call allows you to purchase your player of preference, versus calling out someone you like at $1 only to have another owner snatch that player away with a $2 bid. In freeze leagues, though, some owners would prefer to spend only $1 on a future keeper. This is one situation where a team might wind up with $2 or $3 on the table.
The less favorable scenario involves leaving $10 or more behind. This is almost always a case of dollar mismanagement and not a case of any kind of strategy or planning. Anecdotally, the results are never good. Even under the assumption that inflation is linear, you're punting an extreme amount of value right out of the gate. The highest I've seen a team finish that left $10+ on the table is 5th place. I would love to do some further study on this, but I would not recommend leaving too much money behind at your auction.
So the second part of an analysis like this would have to consist of whether or not having extra FAAB dollars would work to your advantage.
In most years, teams do not spend all of their FAAB on one player early in the season. As I've mentioned in an earlier post, it is an excellent possibility that when Roger Clemens is eligible for bidding that someone will spend all of his FAAB. Keep in mind, though, that it is already June. The impact of a Clemens, though certainly significant, is not equal to the impact of a top pitcher purchased at auction and owned throughout the entire season.
For that is what we're talking about here. Having an extra couple of dollars to buy Carlos Lee or Bobby Abreu last year after they came into the league is certainly a powerful incentive to save your auction dollars. Yet even Abreu and Lee were only the 29th and 35th best outfielders, respectively, in the American League last year. That isn't to say that owning Abreu or Lee didn't push Roto teams toward the pennant. It just means that, once again, owning a Vladimir Guerrero or an Ichiro Suzuki all year certainly is more valuable.
The greatest impact from any FAAB purchase would come in April or early May, not in August. But players available for bid this early are typically difficult to predict. Reggie Willits is probably the highest impact free agent in the American League to date with his 14 SB. Yet he was FAABed for $1 in my league, waived, and then picked up on waivers. In hindsight, I wish I had bid $2. But in April, it looked like Willits was nothing more than a 5th outfielder on a deep team. Sure, if I had some extra FAAB floating around, I might have picked up Willits for $2. But it's not likely, as Willits probably isn't the kind of player I'm saving my extra dollar for.
The most important reason I don't recommend saving money for the FAAB wars is that the quality of free agents is unpredictable. Additionally, the timing of when these free agents come into the league is unpredictable. I have nothing against a Stars & Scrubs strategy, but you do want to try and get the best "scrubs" you possibly can get. I'd rather spend $2 on my 13th or 14th hitter of choice than wait until May or June for something better to come along.
By then it might be too late.
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