To win your Rotisserie League - this year or any year - you need at least all four of the following to occur:Last week I discussed injuries. Today, I'll look at bargains from last year's LABR auction in the A.L.
- You need at least one of the players you buy in the crapshoot to turn into a bargain. I'm not talking about Mike Redmond turning your $2 investment into a $4 profit. Think J.J. Putz or Gary Matthews in 2006.
- You need to avoid injuries.
- You need to make at least one trade that works out in your favor. Two trades in your favor are better.
- You need your $35+ player or players not to fall off the face of the earth.
Top 10 A.L. Hitter Bargains, 2006 LABR
| Hitter | Cost | '06 $ | MF | JH | +/- | $05 |
| Gary Matthews Jr. | $6 | $25 | $6 | $10 | +19 | $13 |
| Reed Johnson | $2 | $19 | $6 | $3 | +17 | $10 |
| Corey Patterson | $10 | $27 | $11 | $15 | +17 | $15 |
| Frank Thomas | $4 | $20 | $11 | $6 | +16 | $4 |
| Michael Cuddyer | $6 | $22 | $9 | $7 | +16 | $9 |
| Mark DeRosa | $1 | $17 | +16 | $4 | ||
| Mark Teahen | $3 | $18 | $3 | $5 | +15 | $8 |
| Jay Payton | $2 | $16 | $7 | $5 | +14 | $11 |
| Justin Morneau | $16 | $30 | $14 | $14 | +14 | $10 |
| Carlos Guillen | $15 | $29 | $14 | $11 | +14 | $11 |
| Average | $7 | $22 | $8 | $8 | +16 | $10 |
Alex Patton used to print these in his unparalleled Player Profiles/Player Projections books back in the 1990s, so I thought that I'd look at these results, not be too surprised, and move on to the pitchers. But a few things jump out at me.
First of all, LABR gives this group of 10 hitters a $3 pay cut from the year before. And Mike Fenger (MF, standing in for Alex for 5x5 values) and John Hunt (JH) hardly disagree; they suggest a $2 pay cut on average.
Initially, I thought this was the market reverting to Stage One, which consists of paying whatever it takes to get the top hitters, then filling in during the end game with a bunch of scrubs. However, a closer inspection reveals that this is hindsight talking. Matthews, Johnson, Cuddyer and Payton were all not guaranteed jobs last year in spring training; they looked like they might get stuck in platoons or some other kind of part-time arrangement. Patterson and Thomas looked like they would play, but they were high risks based on their previous performances.
In fact, this is an extremely Stage Three auction. The market must insist on profits for these types of players. Gary Matthews earned $13 in 2005? Well, he earned $9 in 2004 and lost $1 in 2003, so he better prove to me he's worth it. Reed Johnson earned $11 in 2005 and 2004? Well, I'm still not convinced he's a part-timer.
The other thing that jumps out at me about this grouping is that it seems to make the argument that you're better off leaving an OF slot or two open toward the end of your auction. This list includes 6 OF, 1 1B, 1 3B and 1 DH. Injury-prone Carlos Guillen is the only stand-in for the middle infielders; there aren't any catchers to be seen. That tells me that you're better off spending the extra dollar or two to grab solid catchers and middle infielders. You are less likely to get an endgame steal at these positions.
Freeze lists change this landscape significantly. In my American League, only DeRosa, Patterson and Guillen were available in our auction. The freeze prices were pretty similar to the LABR auction prices, with Johnson ($3), Thomas ($8), and Payton ($3) costing more as freezes.
Like Fenger and Hunt, my A.L. passed on DeRosa in the auction as well.
Top 10 A.L. Pitcher Bargains, 2006 LABR
| Pitcher | Cost | '06 $ | MF | JH | +/- | $05 |
| J.J. Putz | $1 | $26 | $1 | $1 | +25 | $7 |
| Jon Papelbon | $5 | $27 | $8 | $4 | +22 | $4 |
| Mike Mussina | $9 | $23 | $13 | $9 | +14 | $12 |
| Kenny Rogers | $3 | $17 | $4 | $10 | +14 | $15 |
| Francisco Liriano | $11 | $25 | $8 | $10 | +14 | $2 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | $4 | $18 | $5 | $8 | +14 | $8 |
| Nate Robertson | $2 | $15 | $2 | $5 | +13 | $8 |
| Joel Zumaya | $1 | $14 | +13 | |||
| Justin Verlander | $4 | $18 | $4 | $4 | +13 | -$1 |
| Vicente Padilla | $1 | $12 | $6 | +11 | $3 | |
| Average | $4 | $20 | $5 | $5 | +15 | $6 |
The return here looks like it's about as good as the same group of hitters. In fact, it's better, given that hitters are worth $175 per team versus $85/team for pitchers in 5x5.
(In 4x4, the actual value of hitters is $182/team versus $78/team for pitchers. The distinction is an interesting one, but one that is too detailed in scope for this post.)
In other words, your average bargain hitter produces 12.6% of a team's offense. Your average bargain pitcher produces an enormous 23.5% of an average team's pitching.
Another significant difference between 5x5 and 4x4 is the significance of closers. There isn't a single pitcher on this list who was the closer on Opening Day. Technically Papelbon was, but it was still an open question as to whether or not Keith Foulke would reclaim the job. J.J. Putz was most definitely not the closer on Opening Day.
I can guarantee you that, in start up 4x4 leagues, Joe Nathan ($44 in 4x4, $28 in 5x5), Francisco Rodriguez $43/$26), and B.J. Ryan ($42/$27) would be on this list for a lot of leagues.
It might not seem this way, but the market and the touts are a little wilder here with their guesses. Four of these pitchers - Papelbon, Liriano, Zumaya and Verlander - get raises. Liriano gets a huge raise. That's because the market knows that there's a good chance at a great return on these types of pitchers.
Where does the money come from?
The grizzled vets. Guys like Mussina, Robertson and especially Rogers. The odds of a big pay-off with these established players are less.
Check out all of the Tigers on this list. You could have put together a pretty nice pitching staff by just drafting Tigers.
I'm rambling here, because I don't see as clear of a moral for the pitchers. The clearest moral, in 5x5, is that you probably should shortchange closers, as sas4 recommends.
The landscape is much different for pitchers in freeze leagues. Only one of these pitchers - Kenny Rogers at $1 - is frozen. Everyone else is available for purchase. And the price differences are radical in a few cases. Papelbon ($12), Mussina ($14), Zumaya ($5), Verlander ($12) and Padilla ($4) all go for significantly more than in LABR. Inflation has something to do with this, but so does the fact that no one wants to see Paps, Zumaya or Verlander become a huge piece of a dump trade down the line. Mussina and Padilla go for more because we can't take fliers on guys who will wind up in the minors like LABR can, and we have to spend our pitching budgets somewhere.
I'd like to see more league data for pitchers. I suspect I'm on to something: that LABRs early auction and reserve rosters lead to more guys being available in the crapshoot. Only Putz and Robertson ($1 each) go for $3 or less in my A.L., and that's a difference that inflation alone simply cannot explain.
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