A.L. FAAB Log 6/18/07

Jason Hammel $5. Other bid $1
Taking a page out of the Minnesota Twins' playbook, the Devil Rays brought up Hammel to pitch out of the pen for now. Rodger actually did a nice write up about Hammel's numbers since 2006 last year. John Sickels only had Hammel as a C+ pitcher this year, probably because of the HR/IP in 2006 and the terrible cup of coffee in the majors last year. In 2006, Sickels has Hammel as a B prospect. Keep in mind that pitcher grades (and fortunes) can fluctuate much more in the minors than they do for hitters. I think it's only a matter of time before Edwin Jackson and his 8.20 ERA are booted from the rotation, and I agree with Rodger that Hammel is probably an underrated prospect with a good opportunity to contribute this year. If there's a reason not to overbid, it's that Tampa has a lot of pitching prospects, and guys like Jeff Niemann could easily overtake Hammel by year's end.

Curtis Thigpen $4. Other bid $1
Thigpen looks a lot like the guy he might wind up replacing someday, Gregg Zaun. The book on Thigpen is that he's got a nice glove and is a professional hitter. The only knock on him is that he isn't a power hitter. With some rookies, you look for this to change, but Thigpen is a 24-year old polished college product, so it's not a great bet that he'll start hitting HRs. My bigger challenge is that I don't see the Jays benching Zaun for Thigpen unless they decide to clean house, so this is more of a future move anyway. I'd stay away from Thigpen for now in A.L. only leagues.

Jason Stanford $3
It's been a long way back for Jason Stanford from Tommy John surgery: he was operated on in July 2004, and only threw 25 1/3 IP in 2005 before being given another light workload in 2006, tossing up 112 1/3 IP at Triple-A Buffalo. He should get sent back down to the minors when Jake Westbrook comes back, but given Westbrook's struggles in rehab and Paul Byrd's struggles in the majors, Stanford might stick around if he gets hot. He looks to me like a Quad A pitcher. He might get lucky for a start or two, but there's nothing in his track record that says buy.

Rafael Perez $1. Other bid $1
When the Indians called up Perez last month, the conventional wisdom was that he'd join Aaron Fultz as a LOOGY. Instead, Perez has pitched as the long man out of the pen, and has done a great job in that role. The biggest problem with owning Perez is that he doesn't pitch much. He's been in six games since his recall on May 28, and mostly in games that have been out of hand. His minor league numbers this year also don't speak to long-term success, though Perez was starting at Buffalo and not relieving. He's acceptable for the back of a Roto staff, but you shouldn't expect a lot.

Mike Macdougal $1
Macdougal got called right back up from Charlotte after 3 2/3 IP of shut out relief. He then struggled against the Pirates, allowing a run and three hits in an inning of work on Saturday. I'd avoid. Bobby Jenks has been the only reliable reliever in the ChiSox pen this year, and I suspect that Macdougal wouldn't get a crack at saves unless there was an injury. Even then, Matt Thornton probably gets the first call at this point. As a next year play, who knows? Macdougal's 30, and still hasn't been consistent enough to make me think of him as a good CIW bet.

Terry Evans $1
Prior to 2006, Terry Evans was a non-entity: minor league filler who had put up a 296/394/690 in four minor league seasons in the Cardinals system and was stuck in A-ball at the age of 23. Out of nowhere, Evans came to life, garnering enough notice for the Angels to grab him in the Jeff Weaver trade last season. Overall, Evans went 33/87/37/.309 between A-ball and Double-A. His numbers at Double-A were almost the same as his numbers in Single-A, and his 379/565/944 line was too good to ignore. John Sickels gave Evans a C+ in his off-season Angels Top 20 report and ranked him the 19th best prospect in the Angels system. This year, Evans continued his hot hitting for Triple-A Salt Lake, putting up a 908 OPS in 257 AB. He's earned his promotion, in other words, and while he might be too old to be a real prospect at the age of 25, stranger things have happened. He's definitely earned a shot at a major league bench job, and I've wasted all this space on a guy who probably isn't worth a FAAB bid because these are the kind of guys you just have to root for.

Raul Casanova $1
Dioner Navarro looks like a complete flop that belongs in Triple-A, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Casanova steal the job outright. Even if he doesn't, he should continue to get 5-10 AB a week while Navarro works through his problems in the cage. Casanova popped 2 HR in his first week, so he could be a cheap risk for low-BA power for teams that are desperate.

Eric O'Flaherty $1
I've heard good things about O'Flaherty, but keep in mind that he's only 22 and might very well go through some rough patches before the year is out. Having said that, he's got three vulture wins already and the combination of the Mariners suddenly resurgent offense and a rotation that doesn't go deep into games puts O'Flaherty in a position to do what Julio Mateo did last year and vulture another 4-6 wins before the year is out.

Miguel Batista $1
This is Toz's pick up, so I asked him today about his rationale. He said he grabbed Batista because he's got a two-start week against the Pirates and the Reds and then he'll probably waive him next Monday. Toz is second in WHIP and has a healthy lead in ERA, so he can afford the risk. You probably can't. I have to say that this is a case where a closer inspection of the numbers tells me that Batista could actually be one of those pitchers who has a mini-hot streak. He hasn't allowed a lot of HR, and his H/IP rate is extremely high (11.12) for a pitcher who almost strikes out six per nine innings. You might get lucky and get a 1.30 or 1.35 WHIP and a 4.30-4.50 ERA out of him with some wins. He still scares me and I wouldn't touch him.

Scott Williamson $1
Williamson's putting up his best numbers since 2003, when he was a closer with the Reds. It could be a sign that he's finally healthy, which means that he should be the top set-up guy to Chris Ray in yet another tattered bullpen. If the Orioles really shake things up now that Sam Perlozzo's been shown the door, Williamson has an outside shot at taking over for Ray if he struggles. I don't see that happening, but Williamson is worth a bid.

Jack Cust. Claimed by 11th, 9th, 8th, 7th and 3rd place teams.
On June 11, when Jack Cust's owner screamed "no mas" and pulled the plug, Cust was in the middle of an 8 for 49 slump, with only five singles and three doubles in that time. Even his nine walks left Cust with an unacceptable .239 OBP. Of course, Cust proceeded to catch fire at the end of last week, going 9 for 12 in the series with St. Louis, knocking a HR and driving in three. Perhaps more importantly, he only struck out once. Now the A's are talking about extending Piazza's DL stint until he's ready to catch, which seemingly indicates that the organization wants to give Cust every chance to hang himself. It's hard not to look at Cust's 1007 OPS and be excited no matter how many times he strikes out. But he will have to provide some power to keep his job, and another long slump like the one he just had will spell the end for him. If someone dropped him in your league, you should probably go $15 for him, but you should understand that he's a huge risk at this point.

Matt Guerrier. Claimed by 10th, 8th, 7th and 2nd place teams.
He's had a lights out year, but you do have to get to the point where you fret about the law of averages catching up to you. It's impossible to recommend avoiding a pitcher with a 1.52 ERA and a .85 WHIP, but the risk for a bad week is there; the odds of Guerrier finishing the year with a 5.23 H/IP ratio are very, very poor.

Chad Bradford. Claimed by 8th place team.
I love severe G/F pitchers like Bradford (lifetime 3.39 G/F in 407 2/3 IP). Unlike Williamson, he doesn't have a chance of getting saves if the post-Perlozzo O's decide to shake things up. He is 0-4, so with some better luck on some of those grounders, he could have been somebody. He could have been a vulture.

Adam Melhuse. Claimed by 3rd place team.
Melhuse had the worst back-up catching job in the world, as the A's were seemingly committed to playing Jason Kendall 150 times a year. Traded to Texas earlier this month, it looks like Melhuse will spell Gerald Laird once or twice a week. Melhuse does have some pop in his bat, so his upside is Doug Mirabelli or Sal Fasano. He's only worth a bid or claim if you have an absolute zero at catcher like Paul Bako or Dioner Navarro who is dragging down your average.