Monday, June 18, 2007

N.L. FAAB Log 6/18/07

Chase Headley $7. Other bid $1
The N.L. owners in this league clearly don't think much of Headley in the short-term or in the long-term; no one can bring himself to bid aggressively, believing that Kevin Kouzmanoff is probably still the long-term answer in San Diego. He's done next to nothing in 10 AB thus far, but at least those AB tell me that Headley will get a real opportunity in the short term.

John Sickels had a very interesting
article about Headley back in May. To summarize, Headley was a B prospect in Sickels' book, but Sickels also admitted that Headley's great numbers in Double-A could be the sign of a breakthrough season, even in a hitters' league like the Texas League. Now, with Headley's OPS actually creeping up since that article was written, you have to at least stand up and take notice. I think Headley's more of a long term play in San Diego. Kouzmanoff will get a full year to prove himself if he's healthy, and it wouldn't hurt the Pads to send Headley back to Triple-A for the rest of the year. Long term, I think Headley's stock has risen, and he has to be at least an A+ in Sickels' next book.

Livan Hernandez $7. Other bid $1
Hernandez is Exhibit A as to why the quality start statistic is crap on ice. Hernandez has a 1.53 WHIP, a 41/43 K/BB ratio in 90 IP, and yet has somehow posted 11 quality starts in 14 games. He's also got a 5-4 record. He's the kind of pitcher that a pair of moronic announcers will drone on and on about how he's a "gamer" and he "keeps his team in it" and is a "competitor." This was pretty much the ESPN take on Hernandez's start against the Yankees. It's impossible to recommend Livan, no matter much "grit" and "determination" he has in his "heart". He's an accident waiting to happen; his peripherals are so rotten that his luck is just about to run out.

Ryan Langerhans $2
He's swinging a hot bat, with 2 HR in the last week, so Langerhans should stay on the good side of the platoon with Nook Logan for now. If he's somehow floating around in your free agent pool, he's one of the better players probably available. Just look at his career numbers before you get too excited about a potential breakthrough.

Bob Howry $1
It was probably his win over the Mariners that made this owner buy, but Howry's been white hot, throwing up 9 2/3 scoreless IP with four baserunners since May 27. Despite all of the talk of every young reliever under the sun picking up saves if Ryan Dempster falters, keep in mind that Howry's the guy with the big contract and is less likely to get hurt or worn down. He's still a long shot as a closer-in-waiting, but he's worth considering at $1.

Saul Rivera $1
Rivera's leapfrogged Jesus Colome as the closer-in-waiting for the Nationals, for what that's worth. There's not much to knock Rivera on this year. He's shaved off a significant number of walks and has three saves, coming in to close when Chad Cordero's pitched frequently. Worth $1.

Aaron Miles $1. Other bid $1
Miles is 8-for-19 (.421) in his last five games, and is currently Tony LaRussa's second sacker of choice. He's not a good long-term option, as Miles sports a lousy 638 OPS, but I can't blame LaRussa for finally tiring of Adam Kennedy. I'd still avoid Miles.

John Van Benschoten $1
A nice outing against the White Sox in Van Benschoten's first trip to the majors in three years, but you should pass on this guy. His strikeout rates are woefully low for Triple-A, and he also looked like he had control problems. He might get lucky once or twice, but this is also a guy I could see giving up 10 ER in a three inning outing next week.

Jose Castillo $1
Castillo got into five games in a row last week. Unlike Miles, though, Castillo is not starting; he got lucky because Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez were both nursing minor injuries. Castillo needs a trade, but I can't see any major league team getting worked up about someone whose offensive numbers look worse Aaron Miles's.

Ruben Gotay $1
He started and hit a HR filling in for Jose Valentin on Saturday. Gotay's value is limited, and the Mets would be better off with a true utility guy on their bench than Gotay.

Rob Bowen $1
This is the team that bought Chad Moeller two weeks ago and then replaced Moeller with Stinnett. He'll pop the occassional HR coming off the bench.

Kevin Correia $1
With Armando Benitez's departure and Brad Hennessey's elevation to the closer's role, Correia is definitely a closer-in-waiting. Correia's peripherals have looked great the last two years and the numbers, at least, tell me there's no reason he couldn't step in if Hennessey wasn't up to it.

Nate McLouth $1
His four RBI day means that McLouth tripled his RBI total on the season. Chris Duffy isn't the answer, but McLouth isn't the answer either. The Pirates have fewer answers than a Magic 8-ball with a broken window. Don't bother.

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