Will the same hold true for the American League? Let's take a look.
Top 10 Most Expensive Starting Pitchers: LABR A.L. 2006
| Pitcher | Cost | '06 $ | AP | JH | +/- | $05 |
| Johan Santana | $36 | $39 | $41 | $38 | +3 | $39 |
| Roy Halladay | $32 | $27 | $31 | $32 | -5 | $26 |
| Rich Harden | $26 | $5 | $23 | $21 | -21 | $22 |
| Randy Johnson | $25 | $15 | $23 | $20 | -10 | $28 |
| Felix Hernandez | $23 | $13 | $13 | $25 | -10 | $14 |
| John Lackey | $20 | $21 | $9 | $19 | +1 | $21 |
| Curt Schilling | $19 | $20 | $20 | $14 | +1 | $5 |
| Javier Vazquez | $19 | $12 | $15 | $16 | -7 | $15 |
| Josh Beckett | $18 | $12 | $23 | $11 | -6 | $22 |
| Mark Buehrle | $18 | $4 | $25 | $17 | -14 | $26 |
| Average | $24 | $17 | $22 | $25 | -7 | $22 |
Unlike the 10 most expensive National League starters, this group took it on the chin last year. Only Santana, Lackey and Schilling turn a profit, and they don't exactly turn a huge profit. The A.L. experts spent $1 more per pitcher and got back $3 less per pitcher. It doesn't sound like much, but it amounts to a $7 bath versus a $3 loss.
The thing that jumps out at me is how both LABR and Hunt give this group a raise over 2005. For pitchers, that's unheard of. Roto players generally give pitchers pay cuts from year to year because we know some of them are going to hurt us but we just don't know which ones will. Halladay, Harden, Schilling, Hernandez and Vazquez all get a bump, but only Schilling turns a profit. You can argue that Halladay and Harden were hurt and Hernandez was due to earn more in a full season. I'd argue back that this is why we cheat pitchers; they're not "due" to do anything.
Something missing from the chart is how many relievers went for $20+ in the A.L. versus the N.L. Six relievers went for $20 or more in the American League, versus only four in the National League. It doesn't sound like a huge distinction, but that's why only six A.L. pitchers crack the $20 barrier, versus the 10 N.L. pitchers who hit $20 or more. The market knows that it will only spend so much on pitchers as a group, so the salaries go down not only because the A.L. grouping seems less reliable after Santana, but because it intuitively knows there's only so much to spend on pitching.
Next 10 (11-20) Most Expensive Starting Pitchers: LABR A.L. 2006
| Pitcher | Cost | '06 $ | AP | JH | +/- | $05 |
| A.J. Burnett | $18 | $11 | $14 | $12 | -7 | $21 |
| Dan Haren | $18 | $20 | $13 | $14 | +2 | $21 |
| Cliff Lee | $17 | $10 | $17 | $17 | -7 | $22 |
| Barry Zito | $16 | $15 | $20 | $16 | -1 | $22 |
| Bartolo Colon | $15 | $-1 | $23 | $11 | -16 | $28 |
| Jose Contreras | $15 | $14 | $12 | $14 | +1 | $21 |
| Kelvim Escobar | $15 | $17 | $11 | $8 | +2 | $9 |
| Joe Blanton | $14 | $5 | $11 | $19 | -9 | $18 |
| Freddy Garcia | $14 | $15 | $17 | $10 | +1 | $19 |
| C.C. Sabathia | $14 | $23 | $17 | $10 | +9 | $19 |
| Average | $16 | $13 | $16 | $13 | -3 | $20 |
And this is what Alex calls Stage 3 hell.
This group of pitchers nearly earns what the first grouping earns, and certainly was more consistent in 2005 than the ten most expensive were. Yet the market knows to hedge its bets here. Yes, Alex is out-on-a-limb with Colon and Hunt is out there with Blanton (compared to LABR and the other tout). But LABR gives everyone except for Escobar a pay cut. Hunt really gives this group a pay cut; he seems to be saying to purchase the blue chippers and avoid this batch of pitchers.
But the evidence is the opposite. This group garners an 81% (13/16) ROI (return-on-investment) compared to the first group's 71% ROI (17/24).
This is where I probably would have used last year's earnings to my advantage. Notice that there are seven $20+ 2005 earners in the first group versus six $20+ 2005 earners in the second most expensive group. Given that pitchers are generally unpredicable, I'm probably better off taking a cheaper risk on a $20+ earner than the more expensive one. And the results (from last year at least) would seem to bear this out.
Next 10 (21-30) Most Expensive Starting Pitchers: LABR A.L. 2006
| Pitcher | Cost | '06 $ | AP | JH | +/- | $05 |
| Scott Kazmir | $13 | $17 | $8 | $11 | +4 | $13 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | $12 | $18 | $13 | $12 | +6 | $12 |
| Matt Clement | $12 | $-4 | $10 | $6 | -16 | $12 |
| Brad Radke | $12 | $8 | $15 | $8 | -4 | $15 |
| Jeff Weaver | $12 | $-3 | $10 | $4 | -15 | $19 |
| Erik Bedard | $11 | $17 | $8 | $16 | +6 | $9 |
| Francisco Liriano | $11 | $25 | $7 | $10 | +14 | $2 |
| Daniel Cabrera | $10 | $4 | $8 | $3 | -6 | $10 |
| Esteban Loaiza | $10 | $6 | $10 | $12 | -4 | $17 |
| Ervin Santana | $10 | $17 | $7 | $11 | +7 | $9 |
| Average | $11 | $11 | $10 | $9 | -0 | $12 |
Looking at the average, this group appears to be very stable. Looking at them individually, this is a crazy and unpredictable group of pirchers. The averages all also misleading because John Hunt's predictions, on a case by case basis, are much better recommendations than Alex's. Hunt comes closer eight times out of 10 and, while it's hard to give him credit for Liriano, a lot of his calls are right on the money and way ahead (or behind) the market and Alex.
Nevertheless, the return here is almost 100%, something that can't be ignored. It's true that Liriano skewers this group, but he would have done that wherever he showed up. More importantly, there are five profitable pitchers here, compared to only three in the first group. This defies conventional wisdom, which says that the cheaper pitchers are riskier, and less likely to turn a profit.
Once again, this group takes a pay cut, albeit a slight one. But it has to; the most expensive pitchers are eating up almost a quarter of the pitching pie.
Next 10 (31-40) Most Expensive Starting Pitchers: LABR A.L. 2006
| Pitcher | Cost | '06 $ | AP | JH | +/- | $05 |
| Jon Garland | $9 | $12 | $11 | $9 | +3 | $23 |
| Kevin Millwood | $9 | $14 | $14 | $16 | +5 | $21 |
| Mike Mussina | $9 | $23 | $10 | $9 | +14 | $12 |
| Bruce Chen | $8 | $-10 | $7 | $10 | -18 | $17 |
| Tim Wakefield | $8 | $6 | $8 | $7 | -2 | $19 |
| Jake Westbrook | $8 | $10 | $9 | $6 | +2 | $13 |
| Kris Benson | $7 | $5 | $9 | $9 | -2 | $10 |
| Paul Byrd | $7 | $2 | $12 | $10 | -5 | $17 |
| Rodrigo Lopez | $6 | $-3 | $5 | $12 | -9 | $8 |
| Joel Pineiro | $6 | $-7 | $8 | $10 | -13 | $-2 |
| Average | $8 | $5 | $9 | $10 | -3 | $14 |
Somehow, AP and JH just know that these guys are going to fail. They earned $14 on average in 2005, or more than the 3rd most expensive group, yet cost $3 per pitcher less. And that's still not enough of a pay cut, as this group only earned $5 per pitcher. In 5x5, where negatives are harder to come by, that's a soaking. In 4x4, Chen loses $19 and Pineiro loses $16.
The touts are being as conservative as they feel they can be without seeming foolish to their clientele. And yet they don't trim the fat enough. The market will only pay $8 per pitcher in this group, even though using 2005 as a baseline makes it look like they should have paid more.
I did this for 50 pitchers in the N.L., so I'll be consistent.
Next 10 (41-50) Most Expensive Starting Pitchers: LABR A.L. 2006
| Pitcher | Cost | '06 $ | AP | JH | +/- | $05 |
| Adam Eaton | $5 | $2 | $8 | $2 | -3 | $7 |
| Scott Baker | $4 | $-2 | $4 | $7 | -6 | $6 |
| Mike Maroth | $4 | $2 | $4 | $8 | -2 | $9 |
| Carlos Silva | $4 | $-4 | $11 | $13 | -8 | $15 |
| Justin Verlander | $4 | $17 | $1 | $4 | +13 | $-1 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | $4 | $18 | $4 | $8 | +14 | $8 |
| Ted Lilly | $3 | $12 | $8 | $6 | +9 | $2 |
| Kenny Rogers | $3 | $17 | $3 | $10 | +14 | $15 |
| Josh Towers | $3 | $-8 | $8 | $4 | -11 | $16 |
| Jarrod Washburn | $3 | $7 | $10 | $6 | +4 | $13 |
| Average | $4 | $6 | $6 | $7 | +2 | $9 |
The market eventually has to get profits from somewhere, and this is where it will have to insist upon those profits. So Lilly and Verlander get modest raises, and everyone else takes a pay cut. Silva, Rogers, Towers and Washburn take drastic pay cuts, and Silva and Towers are object lessons as to why the market is slashing last year's prices.
The money that Hunt was saving in the 2nd and 3rd groupings he's started tossing away here. Eaton's the only pitcher he's conservative with in this entire bloc. That's fine hypothetically, but in real life you're going to have to make your choices.
Now it's time to step back and look at the big picture.
| Pitcher | Cost | '06 $ | AP | JH | +/- | $05 |
| 1-10 N.L. | $23 | $20 | $23 | $25 | -3 | $27 |
| 1-10 A.L. | $24 | $17 | $22 | $25 | -7 | $22 |
| 11-20 A.L. | $16 | $13 | $16 | $13 | -3 | $20 |
| 21-30 A.L. | $11 | $11 | $10 | $9 | -0 | $12 |
| 11-20 N.L. | $17 | $10 | $15 | $18 | -7 | $20 |
| 21-30 N.L. | $12 | $7 | $10 | $11 | -5 | $11 |
| 41-50 A.L. | $4 | $6 | $6 | $7 | +2 | $9 |
| 31-40 A.L. | $8 | $5 | $9 | $10 | -3 | $14 |
| 31-40 N.L. | $7 | $5 | $6 | $9 | -2 | $8 |
| 41-50 N.L. | $5 | $4 | $5 | $5 | -1 | $6 |
Sorted by actual 2006 earnings.
Based on prices alone, it's fairly predictable by groupings but not so much when you look at each grouping individually. Still, in both the N.L. and the A.L., the one thing that is consistent is that the ten most expensive pitchers are also the 10 best.
1 comment:
Mike. I need a week or so to digest all of this. Wow.
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