Top 10 N.L. Hitter Bargains, 2006 LABR
| Hitter | Cost | '06 $ | MF | JH | +/- | $05 |
| Hanley Ramirez | $9 | $35 | $7 | $6 | +26 | -$0 |
| Freddy Sanchez | $3 | $25 | $3 | $1 | +22 | $10 |
| Dan Uggla | $3 | $23 | $4 | $9 | +20 | |
| Adrian Gonzalez | $5 | $22 | $9 | +17 | $2 | |
| Garret Atkins | $18 | $33 | $14 | $19 | +15 | $17 |
| Brian McCann | $9 | $24 | $7 | $7 | +15 | $5 |
| Dave Roberts | $12 | $27 | $12 | $10 | +15 | $19 |
| Ryan Howard | $23 | $37 | $23 | $21 | +14 | $17 |
| Josh Barfield | $6 | $19 | $10 | $9 | +13 | |
| Rich Aurilia | $6 | $19 | $5 | $4 | +13 | $15 |
| Average | $9 | $26 | $9 | $10 | +17 | $9 |
Compared to yesterday's American League list, this list contains the types of players people think about when they talk about bargains: mostly young players, either rookies or second or third year players who just need an opportunity to break out. Only Roberts and Aurilia fit into the grizzled vet category; the rest of these guys are youngsters.
This is a more expensive group as a result. In my experience with expert leagues, I've found that experts love paying a few extra dollars for rookies, even in a league that doesn't carry players over. And why not? Telling your subscribers that you bought Reed Johnson, Jay Payton and Mark DeRosa for a combined $5 isn't going to sell whatever it is you're hawking, whereas telling them that you bought Adrian Gonzalez at $5 sure will.
Mike Fenger (MF) has a lower average salary than John Hunt (JH), but wins the player-by-player battle 6-3-1. John Hunt falls prey to wanting to make "sexy" calls as well. Adrian Gonzalez and Dan Uggla look great now, but I wasn't going to pay $9 for either a guy who couldn't hit in Arlington or a Rule V second baseman who couldn't hit for average in Double-A.
This group also pays greater dividends than the A.L. version. A $26 average per player is great on a group of players like this. You're not looking for big profits on rookies; a modest $5 profit is reason enough to be happy when you're closing your eyes and taking a rookie. Breaking even isn't even all that terrible; if I had gotten back $18 worth of stats for my $18 Atkins, I wouldn't have been complaining.
Top 10 N.L. Pitcher Bargains, 2006 LABR
| Pitcher | Cost | '06 $ | MF | JH | +/- | $05 |
| Jeff Francis | $1 | $14 | $3 | $7 | +13 | -$2 |
| Clay Hensley | $1 | $13 | $1 | +12 | $6 | |
| David Bush | $7 | $18 | $10 | $8 | +11 | $7 |
| Chuck James | $1 | $12 | +11 | $0 | ||
| Woody Williams | $2 | $13 | $3 | $1 | +11 | $4 |
| Scott Olsen | $5 | $15 | $2 | +10 | $0 | |
| John Smoltz | $16 | $26 | $26 | $19 | +10 | $26 |
| Tom Glavine | $6 | $16 | $10 | $12 | +10 | $13 |
| Dan Wheeler | $3 | $12 | $1 | $13 | +9 | $12 |
| Aaron Harang | $13 | $22 | $11 | $10 | +9 | $16 |
| Average | $6 | $16 | $7 | $7 | +11 | $8 |
Obviously, you were happy if you owned any of these pitchers last year. But, while the National League hitters blew away the American League hitters, the opposite just isn't true. A $4 throw in the A.L. generated a $20 average pitcher. Here, a $6 average investment only brings back $16. Once again, good, but...
Here, expectations are higher. Obviously, we know that getting an $11 profit (due to rounding) is great. But we also know that it only takes one bomb to throw those profits away.
The biggest difference comes on players like J.J. Putz and Jon Papelbon. In 5x5, relievers are where you're going to get the biggest rate of return if one becomes a closer, particularly if this happens very early in the year. Take Putz and Papelbon out of the A.L. list, and the profits in both leagues are suddenly pretty comparable.
But where are the relievers in the National League? Wheeler is the only pitcher here who was in the bullpen for the entire year, and he begrudgingly makes the list at $12. I explained yesterday why 5x5 closers just aren't going to make this list. Given the volatility of N.L. closers last year, I would have expected to see more than one midseason closer make the list.
The cross-section of players across both leagues doesn't lead to any riveting conclusions. The disparity between the hitting pools between veterans (A.L.) and youth (N.L.) doesn't lend to any easy analysis when searching for bargains.
It is somewhat clearer on the pitching side. You're better off with a cheap starting pitcher in the end game than a cheap middle reliever. There are more chances that your $1 or $2 investment will turn a tidy profit.
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