There has been a healthy amount of discussion this year about Kevin Slowey. I like him, but I suspect that the panel on the whole isn't convinced that he's a good bet going forward.
My argument regarding Slowey pertains more to FAAB than it does to Slowey. In freeze leagues with farm systems - even in leagues with shallow farm systems like my league has - Slowey is typically one of the best free agent rookies left. If you want to take the ride, you have to pay the toll.
In any event, I thought I'd take a look back to two years ago and review John Sickels' Top 50 pitching prospects from 2005 to see not only how well they've done, but how viable they were as free agents in my A.L. only league. I'll start with the American League today.
1) Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners, A
Predictably, Felix Hernandez was drafted as a farm player in many leagues, so his impact as a free agent was limited indeed. He put up 84 1/3 amazing innings in his rookie year. Since then, he's been a disappointment as a $10 freeze, and even more of a disappointment on a $15 contract. He only earned $9 last year, and is struggling with a 4.58 ERA and a ghastly 1.55 WHIP as well. It's possible that Hernandez will have a fine career, but that is of little consolation to the teams that spent a high farm or reserve pick on him.
2) Adam Miller, Cleveland Indians, A
Drafted as a farm player in 2005 and then thrown back due to injury, he was once again drafted as a farm player this year. No impact yet.
5) Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, A-
Kazmir was FAABed for $10 in 2004 after being stolen from the New York Mets. He lost $2, was thrown back, but then went for $11 in 2005. His 2005 was disappointing, as he only earned $6, but last year's $17 means that Kazmir reaped rewards for patient owners. Like Hernandez, Kazmir's been a disappointment this season, with a WHIP over 1.5, so owners who gave Kaz a contract are particularly sorry.
6) Jesse Crain, Minnesota Twins, A-
Crain was actually drafted as a farm player in 2004, and then frozen at $10 in 2005. He had earned $7 in a short span in 2004, so I could see why his owner was excited, but freezing a middle reliever for $10 is generally a bad idea. Crain then earned $19 in 2005. Despite this, he was thrown back, went for $4 and earned $8. Crain has been a nice middle reliever for the Twins, but anyone who bought or froze him thinking that he was going to supplant Joe Nathan was severely disappointed.
7) Dan Meyer, Oakland A's, A-
Meyer is part of a rarity: a Billy Beane trade that didn't work out. Beane sent Tim Hudson to Atlanta for Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas. Meyer was expected to be the crown jewel of this trade, but injuries and ineffectiveness have all but ended what slim chances Meyer had as a prospect. That didn't stop Meyer from getting drafted as a farm player in 2005 and then getting traded twice as a throw-in. He hasn't been seen since.
8) Huston Street, Oakland A's, A-
Unlike Jesse Crain, owners who drafted Huston Street on the cheap in 2005 hit the jackpot. He went for $1 in my league to Toz, which had me shaking my head for not calling him out earlier and wasting my last pitching slot dreck. Street might be out for the year with a damaged ulnar nerve, but teams that bought him in 2005 can't complain about what he delivered the last two years.
12) Brandon McCarthy, Chicago White Sox A-
Like most of Sickels' A/A- pitchers, McCarthy was drafted as a farm player in 2005. He bounced up and down that year, logging 10 starts in 12 appearances and putting up a 4.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP for $5 Patton earnings. Due to a logjam in the White Sox rotation, he was thrown back in 2006 but purchased again for $10. His owner probably figured that a trade or injury would open up a spot for McCarthy, but that didn't happen, and McCarthy's numbers regressed. Now in Texas, McCarthy was thrown back again and went for $9. He's a guy teams will keep paying for in the hopes that one of these years he'll break out, but he's another exhibit as to why young pitching is a shaky investment.
13) Brandon League, Toronto Blue Jays, B+
Like Huston Street, League was drafted for $1 in 2005 as a promising closer-in-waiting. Unlike Street, League put up awful numbers that year, losing $6. He was solid in 2006, but the B.J. Ryan signing pretty much nullified what chance he had of closing that year, and not a single team even FAABed League last year. With Ryan's injury knocking him out for the year, League could be back in the closer mix before the year's out. Still, anyone that drafted him in 2005 didn't get the return they were hoping for.
18) J.D. Durbin, Minnesota Twins, B+
Durbin was on the fast track before the 2005 season, but has since been derailed by injuries and ineffectiveness. He was a farm pick in my A.L., and probably in a few A.L. leagues. He's now in Philadelphia's minor league system and on the verge of losing what little prospect cachet he has, as he's putting up another subpar year in the minors.
19) Scott Baker, Minnesota Twins, B+
Baker's the first pitcher on this list who was actually FAABed in my league in 2005, which should tell you how hard it is to get a top pitching prospect via FAAB. Anyway, Baker was strong during his 2005 cup of coffee, earning $6 in a mere 53 2/3 IP. His performance actually turned Baker into a $12 freeze, a move that was disastrous, as Baker lost $7 and rode the shuttle all year long. This year, Baker wasn't even drafted as a farm player but, once again, went for $12 FAAB.
20) Joe Blanton, Oakland A's, B+
Amazingly, Blanton was drafted as a farm player in 2004, even though he had only thrown 35 2/3 IP above A-ball at that point. He broke camp with the team in 2005, so he probably wasn't available as a FAAB player that year. He earned $19 in 2005, so he was a great return that year, but regressed in 2006, earning only $2 with mediocre ERA/WHIP numbers. He's been pretty solid so far this year.
22) Jairo Garcia, Oakland A's, B+
Now Santiago Casilla, Garcia was FAABed for $4 in 2005, despite the fact that he only pitched three major league innings that year. He's been lights out this year, but that's a long wait for a middle reliever. However, it's often a typical wait for these types of prospects.
24) Denny Bautista, Kansas City Royals, B+
Bautista was called up early by the Royals in 2005 and FAABed for $3. He lost $2 on the season. He had lost $9 in 2004, and he also lost $5 in 2006. Bautista was a pitcher who kept getting FAABed, despite the poor results, because he throws hard.
27) Jon Papelbon, Boston Red Sox, B+
Papelbon is undoubtedly the best Roto pitcher on this list, posting an out of this world $44 season last year. However, his impact in Roto leagues didn't happen in 2005. He was FAABed for $5 that year and earned $4 in his limited trial with the Red Sox. His owner had the option to keep him at $10 the day before Opening Day but threw him back, a mistake I'm sure he's still kicking himself about.
28) Chad Orvella, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, B+
Orvella was FAABed for $12 in June, but only earned $3 in 2005. He was kept at this price despite losing the closer job well before the freeze date. He lost $8 in 2006, but was drafted as a farm player this year, before being waived, claimed, and then waived again. Clearly, this is a FAAB bid that didn't work out.
30) Jered Weaver, unsigned, B+
Weaver was eligible to be drafted in my farm draft in 2005, but teams understandably took a pass since the Angels hadn't formally agreed to a contract with Weaver yet. He was taken as a farm player in 2006 and earned a jaw-dropping $26 in 2006.
31) Gio Gonzalez, Chicago White Sox, B+
Gonzalez was undrafted in 2005 (he had only thrown 56 2/3 minor league IP at this point), traded to the Phillies in 2006 as part of the Jim Thome deal, and then handed back to the White Sox for Freddy "Ouch" Garcia this winter. Gonzalez's stock has fallen somewhat since 2005.
34) Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers, B+
It seems unreal that no one would have taken Verlander as a farm player in 2005, but he had not pitched a professional inning at this point. Verlander went for $12 in my 2006 auction and has been paying dividends ever since.
35) Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins, B+
Another first round pick with zero or limited experience, Perkins wasn't taken in the 2005 farm draft. He was taken in 2006, but did not finally grace a Rotisserie roster until 2007. Of course, the team that drafted him had to waive him, and Perkins was claimed by a non-contending team. Still not a significant impact for Roto.
36) Thomas Diamond, Texas Rangers, B+
Yet another super-young pitching prospect. As of yet, Diamond has been unowned in my league. His stock his fallen since 2005. His numbers at Double-A since his promotion in mid-2005 have been OK, but hardly worthy of the super-prospect tag he once had. Diamond had Tommy John surgery this spring and won't pitch this year.
37) Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, B+
Niemann was drafted as a farm player in 2005 and remains with that team in its farm system. He might finally crack Tampa's rotation this year.
38) J.P. Howell, Kansas City Royals, B+
Howell went undrafted in 2005 since he had only pitched 26 rookie ball innings in 2004, although his college experience put him on the fast track. Sure enough, Howell pitched 72 2/3 awful (-$7) innings for the Royals, but no one picked him up. He injured his shoulder in May 2006, and then the Royals shipped him to Tampa Bay for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez. He was FAABed for $8 when the Rays called him up but struggled and lost $3. He was FAABed again this year for $12 and has had two solid starts so far and two bad ones.
39) John Danks, Texas Rangers, B+
Our league doesn't trust Rangers pitching prospects. Danks went undrafted in both 2005 and 2006. Like Diamond, Danks' numbers at AA and up have been OK but not what you'd expect from a top prospect. Danks finally was purchased for $2 this year after being traded to the White Sox in the winter. His numbers so far (4.61 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) have not impressed. It is worth remembering, though, that Danks is only 22 years old.
41) David Purcey, Toronto Blue Jays, B+
Purcey has remained unowned in my league. Sickels said Purcey's only possible issue would be command and, sure enough, that's been Purcey's bugaboo, with a 5.11 BB/9 IP in the minors thus far. Purcey has his walk rate down this year in Double-A, but has a 5.37 ERA thus far and looks like he's a long way from contributing.
43) Juan Dominguez, Texas Rangers, B
Dominguez was FAABed for $9 in 2005, but only earned $1 in a swingman role for the Rangers. He's been in the minors ever since, and remains unsigned after the A's cut him earlier this year.
45) Josh Banks, Toronto Blue Jays, B
He's remained unowned in my league. Banks has struggled with the long ball in the minors, to say the least, allowing 35 HR last year for Triple-A Syracuse. That is not a misprint. If you're wondering why the Jays were running guys like Tomo Ohka out there this year, look no further than failed gems like Purcey and Banks.
46) Fernando Cabrera, Cleveland Indians, B
I keep hearing "future closer", but I can't help wondering if this isn't actually happening somwhere in a parallel universe as part of some sort of dystopian future, where we all wear bags over our heads so that the ant overlords who have taken over the planet won't devour our precious, yummy brains. Cabrera was FAABed for $3 in 2005 and earned $7 in 30 2/3 great innings. Since then, he's struggled with command and with his head, earning $0 last year after being drafted for $5, and struggling this year after being drafted for $4. The stuff is electric when he's on, but those moments are few and far between.
49) Adam Harben, Minnesota Twins, B
Another prospect who was unowned in my league. Harben put up strong numbers in High-A ball in 2005, but then only OK numbers in Double-A in 2006, with a disturbing drop in his K rate. An injury was the culprit, as Harben underwent Tommy John surgery in November 2006. Harben was traded to the Cubs for Phil Nevin before this, of course.
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