Yesterday, I looked back at the Top 50 pitching prospects from 2005 (per John Sickels) to ascertain how valuable they were in American League Rotisserie leagues that year. The purpose of the exercise was to determine how useful FAAB bids are for obtaining minor league players.
I'll come to my conclusions on that matter later. For now, I'll continue with the National League portion of the Top 50.
3) Jeff Francis, Colorado Rockies, A
Francis is Exhibit A as to why even non-keeper owners should pay attention to minor leaguers. Anyone who simply saw Francis' negative $11 earnings in 2005 simply would have shrugged their shoulders and not bid on him the following year. Francis was picked up as a farm player in 2005, then thrown back and purchased for $5 in 2006. This paid off, as Francis earned $16 (despite Rotoworld's admonition that "he's too risky to play even on the road while calling Coors Field home."). The distrust for Coors Field remains, though, and Francis was dropped (at $5!) and bought for even less, at $4. With his 3.44 ERA and 1.289 WHIP, Francis looks like he will actually become the first consistent positive earners in Coors Field who isn't a closer.
4) Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers, A-
Billingsley was another pitcher drafted as a farm player in 2005, and is only finally starting to pay dividends this year, as a reliever. He didn't come up until 2006, and threw up 90 lousy innings, but got lucky with his ERA (3.80 ERA/1.67 WHIP), earning $2. Like Francis, a delayed pay-off. Unlike Francis, a limited pay-off.
9) Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia Phillies, A-
Floyd is only 24 years old, so it's too early to write him off as a bust. But he sure killed his Roto owners who drafted him via the farm draft and got burned. He lost $9 in 26 IP in 2005 and $10 in 54 1/3 IP in 2006. He's since been traded to the White Sox, where he's actually been solid at Triple-A Charlotte and will get a chance with the ChiSox at some point.
10) Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants, A-
A very successful Roto pick up thus far, but as a farm player, and not as a FAAB investment. Cain earned $9 in 2005 and $16 in 2006. It's safe to say that he might currently have the most upside of anyone on this list.
11) Mike Hinckley, Washington Nationals, A-
Hinckley was drafted as a farm player in 2005, but then injured his shoulder. He was kept again in 2006, but has put up awful numbers since returning from the injury. He's probably finished as a prospect.
14) Merkin Valdez, San Francisco Giants, B+
Valdez put up solid numbers at Double A in 2005 and was drafted as a farm player in 2006. He proceeded to be awful (except for a solid K/IP rate), and it turned out he was hurt. Valdez had Tommy John surgery in September 2006 and won't pitch this year.
15) Ian Snell, Pittsburgh Pirates, B+
Yet another pitcher who didn't pay dividends in 2005. He is the first N.L. pitcher, by ranking, who was FAABed and not picked via the farm draft (Scott Baker, at #19, is his A.L. counterpart). Snell was FAABed for $6 in 2005 but lost $4. He was thrown back and went for the same $6 price in 2006. He earned $6. The owner that owned Snell in 2006 and traded him in the offseason in 2007 is probably pulling his hair out, as Snell is 6-4 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The ERA should come up to the low to mid 3s, but Snell looks like a pitcher.
16) Anthony Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals, B+
Drafted as a farm player in 2005, Reyes got a 13 1/3 IP cup of coffee where he earned $3. He hasn't been that good since, earning $1 last year in a season with mixed results and losing money this year. I still like him long term, but he wasn't a good use of a 2005 farm pick.
17) Jose Capellan, Milwaukee Brewers, B+
In Roto terms, drafted as a farm player in 2005 and earned $1 in a late season call up. He was dropped and purchased at auction for $6 in 2006 but only earned $4 with some so-so bullpen work. He was sent to the minors and went undrafted this year. He was called up in early June but as of yet, no team has claimed him. No one talks about him as a closer of the future anymore, and in the short term Capellan's best hope is for middle relief work.
21) Yusmerio Petit, New York Mets, B+
Drafted as a farm player in 2005, Petit never saw time for his Roto team in 2005 and 2006. He wasn't brought up to the majors until after he was traded to the Florida Marlins, and his cup of coffee in 2006 was never used by his owner. He's now with the Diamondbacks, and his stock has also fallen. Petit looks more like a back of the rotation guy than a #2 starter.
23) Richie Gardner, Cincinnati Reds, B+
Drafted as a farm player in 2005, but shoulder surgery has pretty much ruined him. He may never see the majors.
25) Kyle Davies, Atlanta Braves, B+
FAABed for $10 in 2005 and wound up losing $4. Unbelievably, he was frozen at $10 in 2006 and lost $17, though presumably not for the team that froze him. Since he started 2007 in the minors, Davies was drafted as a farm player. He has still been awful, with a 5.65 ERA and 1.55 WHIP thus far. Davies is only 23 years old, but there haven't been any good signs thus far, and from a FAAB perspective this bid was worse than a waste.
26) Jacob Stevens, Atlanta Braves, B+
Even super deep Roto leagues don't draft guys like Stevens. Stevens had a dominant year in the Sally League in 2004, but hasn't done much since. He's still in A-ball in 2007.
29) Scott Olsen, Florida Marlins, B+
Olsen was FAABed at $5 in 2005 but earned nothing his 1.54 WHIP canceling out his 3.98 ERA. He was dropped, bought back for $5, and proceeded to earn $15 in 2006. Olsen was kept at $5 and is struggling this year, with a 4.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP entering tonight's start. Another non-entity in terms of FAAB, especially since the team that FAABed him didn't keep him in 2006.
32) Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers, B+
Broxton was FAABed in 2005 at $5 but lost $2. He was thrown back and drafted as a farm player in 2006, and turned around and earned $13 as a reliever, which is no mean feat. He's putting up solid numbers again this year in middle relief for the Dodgers.
33) Zach Duke, Pittsburgh Pirates, B+
Duke was the most successful FAABed pitcher in 2005, earning $17 in 84 2/3 IP. The disparity between his 2005 ERA (1.81) and WHIP (1.21) should have told any owner with a pulse that Duke was going to slip, but who knew how badly he would do so? He only earned $2 in 2006, thanks mainly to his 10 wins, and seems to be on his way to losing money this year (3-6, 5.44 ERA, 1.68 WHIP). I hope he turns it around, because he was dynamite to watch when he first came up.
40) Thomas Pauly, Cincinnati Reds, B+
A solid year in high A-ball propelled Pauly onto Sickels' top 50, but shoulder trouble shut him down in 2005 and 2006. He's finally back on track, but he's pitching in high-A ball still at the age of 26. No Roto impact.
42) Edwin Jackson, Los Angeles Dodgers, B
Many years ago, in one of Patton's books, he joked that you have to be a pretty good pitcher to be allowed to lose Patton $ four years in a row. Edwin Jackson seems to be well on his way to this unfortunate distinction. He lost $4 in 2004, so he was avoided as a farm player in 2005 and as a FAAB investment. Traded to the Devil Rays in the winter of 2005/2006, one A.L. team took the plunge on him as a farm player, but didn't activate him when he came to the majors as a reliever (and lost $7). Back in the D-Rays rotation, Jackson's losing money again, sporting a 7.85 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP. Like a lot of the pitchers in this post, Jackson's very young (23), but needs to turn it around soon, either in the majors or in Triple-A.
44) David Aardsma, San Francisco Giants, B
People with long memories can remember when Aardsma was rated even more highly than this. A 1st round draft pick out of Rice University, Aardsma was touted as the next great "closer of the future." It hasn't worked out that way, at least not yet. After getting smacked around for the Giants in 10 2/3 brief innings in 2004, Aardsma spent all of 2005 in the minors. He was picked up briefly via FAAB in 2006, but only spent a week on a Roto roster, this time with the Cubs. He did earn $4. Traded again this off-season, this time to the White Sox, Aardsma came out of the blocks on fire, earning a $1 bid, but then had a three week period where he got lit up. He's still more potential than polish, though you can see why the Giants (and the touts) were excited.
47) Fernando Nieve, Houston Astros, B
Nieve was more of a long-term prospect, having spent only 17 1/3 IP at AA in 2004, so he understandably wasn't taken as a farm player in 2005. 2006 saw him FAABed for $5, and Nieve responded with a solid if unspectacular effort in half a season, earning $4 for his 4.2 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 3 wins, mostly in relief. Despite this, Nieve was mysteriously optioned to the minors this spring. It turned out he had a partial tear of the right ulnar collateral ligament. He will miss all of 2007, though he was once again drafted as a farm player this season.
48) Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies, B
In hindsight, Cole Hamels should be near the top of this list and, at one time, Hamels was an even more highly regarded prospect. But injuries limited Hamels and made many (including Sickels) wonder whether or not he could hold up as a starter. So far, he seems to have proven the naysayers quite wrong. Unlike a lot of the pitchers lower on this list, Hamels was kept as a farm player due to his once higher status, so he had no FAAB impact. He earned $13 in 2006 and is on his way to an even stronger year so far in 2007, with 9 wins, a 3.82 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 103 2/3 IP.
50) Yhency Brazoban, Los Angeles Dodgers, B
Brazoban was frozen in 2005, so he almost doesn't belong here. As a closer for part of the year, he saved 21 games and earned $11. However, his 2006 wasn't as kind and he lost $1 before he had surgery to repair a torn ligament. He hasn't pitched in the majors since.
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