The Mushy Middle

Sometimes, it's like my readers are three steps ahead of me. Maybe they are.

rodger commented yesterday:

Using my projection spreadsheet, I discovered I could gain nearly 10 points in ERA/WHIP if I got rid of my worst 2 starting pitchers and replaced them with middle relievers from my reserve. The wins cost is likely to be only a couple of points.

Addition by subtraction: it's the easiest way to gain roto points in mid-summer!

One of the keys to deciding whether or not you can contend, if you're in the middle of the pack, is reviewing each and every category and seeing what your team's ceiling is without making a trade. It sounds like rodger did this quite successfully and, as a result, has decided not to pack it in for 2007.

One of the biggest mistakes I've seen teams make is to do the exact opposite. I've seen teams with 60 points look at first place, think that they're "only" 10 points out, and think that all it will take to win is a little luck and a few roster tweaks. Without examining each and every category, you're not going to know how good your chances really are.

You don't have to work as hard as it as rodger did, but it does require a little work. What I like to do is use the Patton $ Software periodically throughout the season to tweak the preseason projections so that I have a good idea of how strong I think my team really is. I don't do this in April. Nor do I simply extrapolate A-Rod's current numbers and convert them into what he's on pace to do. Instead, I look at role players who might suddenly have taken on a larger part in our summer drama and pump up their stats. Similarly, I'll do the same with studs who are clearly not going to live up to initial expectations.

After that, it's pretty easy to look at the standings and see where I have the potential to move up (or down). Keep in mind that some moves are defensive as well as offensive. Trading up in power so I can gain six points in HR/RBI is great, but I mustn't lose sight of the fact that I can lose four points in SB if I simply stand pat (why won't you run anymore, Gary Matthews Jr.?).

Another important thing to remember that owners typically lose sight of is the fact that the first place team isn't simply going to stand pat either. It isn't enough to look at first place, see that your enemy has 75 points on June 27, and assume that 75 points will be the bar you need to hit at the end of the season. The top teams are also (or at least should also) be trying to improve week after week. Unless someone has a near perfect auction (which, in Stage Three, is next to impossible), you can't win without making moves throughout the entire year.

And that's probably the most depressing part of this exercise. It's always difficult, if not impossible, to calculate the psychology of dump trades at the deadline. Who is going to blink? That is always the question, and I'll admit sometimes I'm the one who has done the blinking. Last year I didn't blink, but that was because I determined I wasn't going to win without a miraculous, Alcoa Fantastic Finish (it's cool if you don't get the reference), so I didn't push the two teams that dumped right at the deadline. And because it was a seven-team race, and there was only one team in the last 3-4 days dumping, he could simply pick and choose what he wanted to do.

It doesn't always work out that way, though, and my next post will talk about this aspect of dumping. How do you react to your league when only two or three teams pack it in? What should you do when seven teams give up? It's startling to me that this is another aspect of Roto that's never discussed, but I intend to keep peeling this particular onion.