Dumping Early Versus Dumping Late

Is there an advantage to throwing in the towel early? Or is it better to wait until as close to the trade deadline as possible?

To be certain, I've always advocated not giving up before the season starts. The single greatest impact you can have on your team is with a strong auction. Granted, it's not easy in a Stage Three league to move out of the second division, as I've also discussed before. However, packing it in on March 15 will not work out to your advantage.

In order to determine if there is a "best time" to pack it in, I went back through my American League to 1999 and examined all of the teams that dumped, when they dumped, and where they finished the following year.

1999: Teams dumped on 5/24, 6/21, 7/12, 7/19, 8/2. One team at bottom did not dump.
Finishes in 2000: 11th, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 7th.

Wow. Only one team that dumps finishes in the money. The team that didn't dump outdoes two of the teams that did.

2000: 5/15, 7/3, 7/10, 7/17, 8/7, did not dump (2)
2001 finish: 10th, 11th, 2nd (tie), 1st, 4th, 2nd (tie), 12th
So far, early dumping doesn't get a good grade. Teams dumping earlier than June 1 suck the following year as well.

2001: 7/2, 7/23, 7/23, 7/23, 7/30, did not dump.
2002 finish: 1st, 2nd, 6th, 10th, 12th, 11th
The early birds catch the worms in 2001. Waiting until the last second left these teams with nothing, and not much hope the following year.

2002: 6/24, 7/1, 7/29, 7/29, did not dump (2).
2003 finish: 4th, 3rd, 11th (tie), 1st, 9th, 10th.
Early birds look good again, until you see that 2003's winner waited.

2003: 6/2, 7/7, 8/4, 9/1, did not dump (2)
2004 finish: 12th, 2nd, 6th, 9th, 5th, 1st.
This is only the second time a team that doesn't dump is successful. Of course, first place isn't just "successful"; it's the only thing that anyone remembers.

2004: 6/14, 7/5, 7/19, 7/19, 7/26, 8/2
2005 finish: 7th, 11th, 4th, 10th, 8th, 2nd.
This is once again a win for dumping late, but what's more striking here is how much stability there was from year to year. Tells me that 2004 was a bad year to be playing for 2005.

2005: 5/16, 6/13, 7/4, 8/1, 8/8, did not dump
2006 finish: 12th, 2nd, 9th, 1st, 3rd, 7th.
Waiting seems to pay off, though June 13 doesn't strike me as all that late. We're back to the tumult we want in our Rotisserie leagues: three non-contenders from 2005 win, place and show.

For the most part, it looks like dumping in May or June (not that it happens much in my league) doesn't pay off.

There's another factor at work here, though. Teams that dump early tend to be the weakest teams in the league. As a result, they often wind up on a three-year plan, not the more traditional two-year plan. So the teams dumping early are dumping early because they have fewer strong freezes to trade to contenders, so they'll get less back for the following year. And, barring a lot of luck in the auction, they'll be in the middle of the pack or at the bottom of it.

My instinct is that when you decide to pack it in isn't as important as how you manage your roster after you make this decision. I'll examine some dos and don'ts in this area tomorrow.