Dumping Dos and Don'ts

Yesterday, I completed a cursory examination of dumping and if there is a good time or bad time to do it. Should it be done early, or should you wait until the trade deadline? What I determined is that it is almost random as to which teams succeed and which teams fail based on when they pack it in.

There are factors that have nothing to do with the timing of the dump trades. You can be the savviest trader in the world and have a lousy auction the following year, rendering all of your hard work the previous year worthless. You can also have absolutely destroyed your team to win, dump, but find yourself on a three-year plan because you had so little to give up. You can also have the bad luck of dumping for a key component and have that player traded to the other league. Owners of Josh Barfield know what I'm talking about.

That isn't to say that all dumps are created equal. Some teams do a better job positioning their squads for the following season, while other teams either do nothing or - worse - make half assed trades that actually hurt their teams more than help. In a lot of ways, dump trading is more challenging than leagues that don't carry over players and have only straight-up, category for category trades. You have to try to perform the inexact science of determining what your this year, marquee players are worth versus the value of the future studs (hopefully studs) you're getting back.

The following is some general advice regarding dump trades. If it's too general, let me know. It'd be great to see some more specific ideas in the comment section:

• Shop your players around. This seems rudimentary, but I can't tell you how many owners will make a deal with a friend or in a big hurry just because giving up this year is unpleasant. The most successful owners tend to play the contenders off against one another. Speaking of which...
  
• Trade from the competitors' weaknesses. If the top four teams are weak in pitching, try to pump up the value of your top starters. If they need steals, then try to ship out your top basestealer first. You might actually be able to make something pretty close to a fair trade if you can smell the desperation in one category.
  
• Establish your targets before you dump. If you know how you want to build your team for next year, you'll be more prepared to target certain players. There are two components to this: 1) knowing which players on your team are already freezes and 2) knowing which positions will be strong in the free agent pool. Trading for a slightly undervalued closer when you know eight closers will be free agents in 2008 is a waste.
  
• Don't be afraid to say no. There are always a lot of contending teams that get snide and say something along the lines of: "Your team isn't that good. You have to dump." (That's a very polite version of it. Often, contenders get very rude about this.)
  
  While they're probably right about how poor your team is, you have to treat these negotiations like you're the one in the driver's seat. Remember, your season is toast no matter what you do. On the other hand, you might very well win the league for one lucky owner. Don't give up the farm for next to nothing because you feel like you "have" to make a deal. Trust me, someone will eventually make a trade with you.
  
• Target players you can build around. This also seems obvious, but even I've fallen victim to this mistake in the past. Three years ago, I picked up Juan Uribe at $3 and Ben Broussard at $2 as part of a dump deal. Yes, these guys were certainly undervalued. However, neither player was going to be an integral part of any winning team I put together. Guys like Uribe and Broussard were nice component players, but I should have gotten a franchise player as well, or instead. Which reminds me...
  
• Players you can dump next year are more valuable. Obviously, you want undervalued players if you're playing for 2008. But you're better off with a $20 Grady Sizemore who is under control until 2009 than a $17 Dan Haren you'll only have next year. Why? You won't be able to trade Haren to a non-contender during your title run, whereas Sizemore will allow you to flip him in your push for the title next year. You might not always be able to get a Sizemore (some contenders hang on to these guys for dear life), but you should make it a priority if possible.
  
• Don't forget farm players and draft picks, but don't overvalue them, either.
  In leagues where you can trade farm players and draft picks, try to accumulate as many as possible. But remember that these are throw-ins, not sure things. There's also no definitive date when these guys will contribute. Anyone who traded for Matt Garza, Brandon Wood, or Phil Hughes last year hasn't seen much in the way of a positive contribution yet. That's fine if you only traded a mid-level hitter for one of them. However, if you dealt A-Rod for Wood, you probably could have done better.
  
  One of the best things about farm players/draft picks is that they're good chips in March to get back some at value or slightly undervalued players that your counterparts might just throw back.

Dumping is not just something that should be rushed through hastily because you're mad your team sucks. You should always plan ahead, shop your players around, and get the best value for next year. If you don't, you're going to have two bad years in a row, and you'll enjoy this game even less. After three or four years of this, there's a good chance you'll quit (that seems to be the saturation point for weaker owners). Remember that you're not just rushing to throw your players overboard; you're trying to win next year.