At the start of the season, we all predict who the top 276 players will be, and undoubtedly assign them auction values totalling $3120. We also know that the actual values will not total that - they will almost certainly be less. Some pitchers will be worth -$30, some $40 players will get hurt and be worth $3, etc. Leagues are pretty efficient in that at any time, the 276 active players are a decent approximation of the 276 players who are likely to have the most value from that point on (so in effect the league as a whole is constantly improving).I don't want to continue covering the same ground over and over, but I am surprised that a number of experienced Rotisserie players have the same perception about valuation, mainly that the players they buy in the auction are worth less than $3,120. In fact, the players are worth exactly that because this is what we're paying for them, and it is the only time all 12 teams in a given league are using dollar values simultaneously to determine player values.
As Brett points out, and as sas4 pointed out before him, when we add a player to our squad and jettison an inferior player, we are significantly increasing the odds of improving the statistics of our league as a whole. This has nothing to do with the $3,120 of statistics purchased in auction.
Let me try presenting this another way.
The auction is a snapshot of what the players in your league are worth on the day of your auction. It is entirely possible that you will not purchase a player who is available who will turn out to be superior to one of the 276 players purchased. In fact, it is extremely likely. This year's case-in-point in my A.L. is Hideki Okajima. While I don't expect him to finish with 12 saves and a 1.05 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across 75 innings, I'm also guessing that he will be quite valuable. However, that is not what we're measuring when we calculate dollar values.
The same is true of players who are not available in your auction. Obviously, someone is going to buy Kevin Slowey next week or add him to their roster from their farm team. And there's a good chance that he will improve someone's team. But Slowey is not included in the $3120 calcuation, because the $3120 is used to measure who the league drafted, not the league's universe when the dust settles at the end of the season.
Also, at any time, we can tell who the top 276 players are - their values must add up to $3120 also. Just as the 300th best player before the season starts (based on our projections) has a negative value, so does the 300th best player at any time.This is the theory put forth by more than a few pundits. The problem with this, as I mentioned earlier, is that $3120 is an arbitrary number as soon as the auction ends. We certainly can use it to measure the best 276 players in the league, but it is a false measurement, or at least a useless one.
You can still figure out who the best players are, though, by plugging all players into the formula generated at the auction. Let's do this using a real life example from last year.
Mike Napoli was the 11th best catcher in the American League last year. He was worth $6 last year. His $6 is in the context of what the average draft player was worth, not of the American League universe.
Is this a perfect yardstick? No. But it does tell you, within the context of a league's auction, where Napoli would stand in the pecking order.
I'm going to try to make sas4 (and perhaps Brett's) wish come true, and make a league's best 276 best players equal $3120 in value. If not tomorrow, then soon enough.
2 comments:
Haha, definitely the most esoteric discussion. It's bedtime so I'll keep this short (thank god) but all I was basically saying that the 276 players bought on auction will not end up being the 276 most valuable players when we calculate dollar values for the season at the end (um, take it from a Jorge Julio owner) - that's all. I think that's obvious.
I like the "snapshot" comment. The auction is a shapshot of what they are worth on the day of the auction. Just like today, on May 31st, you can look at the first 2 month "snapshot" and say that Jose Reyes has been worth $60 or whatever, and Pujols has been worth $18 or whatever, and Jorge Julio has been worth -$30 or whatever.
So I'm just saying that at any time, based on the performances so far, you can calculate values. I guess you're right that as soon as the auction is over, $3120 is an arbitrary number. But it's just as good as any, and I'd argue that it's better, because it helps us keep things in context in keeper leagues. If I know that my $1 Ryan Theriot has earned $18 so far (and if I think he can keep up the pace), I've got a good keeper for 2008. The $1 2008 salary (on the $3120 scale) and $18 uninflated value (also on the $3120 scale, of course) keep everything in context.
I'm not sure I get your point about Okajima. What do you mean by "that is not what we're measuring when we calculate dollar values"? He does look like he'll be quite valuable, and maybe at the end of the season, in terms of the $3120 total, he'll be worth $10-12 or so. Do you disagree?
As for Slowey, you can look it two ways:
1) Predict the final 2007 stats for all players, including those who come up during the season, and calculate the best 276, Slowey, Clemens, and others included (this is like the LABR auctions, right - which draft in early March and anyone is available?)
2) Base the $3120 on players who are eligible to drafted. In my league, this is typically guys on ML rosters or their DLs. This is what should be done in practice (and Mike, it seems like you agree with me), because it only makes sense that the $3120 is allocated to players who can be drafted.
But I still say at the end of the year, we can calculate values, and Slowey will end up being worth something. Maybe $5, maybe $20, maybe -$10.
I don't know if we're disagreeing with each other, or if we're just looking at things in a different context.
Alright, already too long - it's been fun so far, I hope to keep the discussion going.
Once upon a time, long, long ago, there was a fantasy league concluding its auction. Almost all of the rosters were filled and only two teams had any money left. Very few serviceable players were available excpet for one, George Brett, who was at the pinnacle of his career.
The bidding was fast and since owner A had $62 left and owner B had $59 left, Brett sold for $60 -- to owner A.
Owner B rounded out his team with a number of lousy players as the other owners shook thier heads.
We can agree that Brett was not worth $60? Maybe a dollar was not worth a dollar by the end of that auction.
The point being: we start the auction with a 'snapshot' of the value of all players, but maybe, during the course of the auction, the value of players changes depending upon who is left and how much money is available.
(And maybe another variable is roster spots neeeded to be filled?)
At the end of that auction, Brett was worth $60.
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