Category Optimization In-Season

Everyone's goal in Rotisserie League Baseball is the same: to not only win your league, but to win it in a walk. Who hasn't idly dreamed about finishing with a perfect 96 points (in a 4x4 league)?

Realistically, though, you'll probably win your league with around 75-80 points. And, if you're flailing in some categories, you might want to consider tossing at least one of those categories aside.

Timothy writes:

[snip]I'm in first in ERA and WHIP, with 435 IP, thanks to Peavy, Saito, Lincecum and Young. I'm second in saves, but 6/9 in wins. I'm average or below in all four offensive categories, even with Jose Reyes single-handedly carrying me in steals. Chipper and Jenkins are the only two players on my team with more than 6 HR.

So, what about this: I lock in my 3.34 ERA and 1.146 WHIP by trading Peavy (for A LOT), Lincecum, Young, Sheets and Maddux for maybe one more closer and a bunch of offense. I'll finish in last in wins, but I should finish first in saves and first or second in ERA and WHIP. With 434 IP so far, I shouldn't have any problem reaching the 900 IP minimum over the next four months.

My offense should turn around, resulting in at least 2-3 points in each category. So I should net 5-9 more points minimum, which at this point puts in first by several points. Good idea, or too risky?

The short answer is that I'm against this specific idea.

The longer answer is that I think that Timothy should dump one or two categories, but that he shouldn't dump pitching.

This winter I discussed category optimization (my term for category dumping) at length. However, I talked more about how various optimization strategies work, versus a) when to begin considering optimizing and b) methodology.

In general (not just when it comes to category optimization), Memorial Day is a good time to start seriously considering whether or not you've got a title contender that needs some tweaking, a middle of the road team that needs an overhaul, or a dud of a squad that should pack up its tent and start rebuilding.

By this weekend, we'll be at the one-third mark. The sample sizes are large enough to look past a hot or cold month and recognize the established pecking order in your league and the level of performance you can expect from each player on your team and your team as a unit.

Getting back to Timothy's question, I believe that categories should be targeted from a position of strength, not weakness. If I were Timothy, I'd either consider dumping power (HR & RBI) or dumping batting average and stolen bases. Another possibility, depending on the average point total that wins Timothy's league, is dumping one of those categories only.

As I've mentioned before in category optimization posts, the hope is that one or more teams finish behind you in the category, even if you've given it up. The fact that Timothy has Reyes tells me that he might be better off ditching batting average and steals, even though ditching power is the easier strategy. There's a good chance that Reyes has built up enough strength for him in steals so that he won't completely tank in the category. On the other hand, digging out of a huge hole in HR/RBI is more difficult, so trading the power Timothy has might also be the way to go. The advantage here is that he might be able to trade only some of his power and still try not to finish dead last in RBI. If Timothy's league has a this year/next year culture, he might pass some teams on the way down as they empty their rosters as they start playing for 2008.

I don't like the idea of Timothy trading away from his team's strength for two reasons.

• Timothy's not even halfway to his innings goal. I don't know who is rounding out your staff, but filling in with free agents, even in a nine-team league, is still dangerous. Last week, my A.L. only ERA jumped from a 3.62 to a 3.94. Yes, it's a "full" 12-team A.L., so the pitching waters are much thinner. But keep in mind that just because he's trading other teams his best starters, this doesn't mean that his opponents are going to simply drop their worst pitchers.
• Timothy doesn't want to wind up in a position where he's chasing too many stats; this defeats the purpose of optimizing categories. Better to chase one or two categories instead of four or five. Letting go of two of the categories he's not doing well in allows him to maintain the points he has in his successful categories while still moving up in categories where he's doing poorly without requiring Timothy to succeed in all of them.

There are no hard and fast rules regarding category optimization. But you should try to keep these general guidelines in mind. The purpose of optimizing categories is letting go of one or two of them, not pursuing all eight in vain. It's hard to accept, but try to give up the ghost in the areas where you're failing, not where you're succeeding.