Today I'll look at the 2006 pool of American League hitters.
Alex Patton's values assume that hitters are worth 70% of the pie and pitchers are worth a mere 30% of the pie. Therefore, 168 hitters will be worth $2,184 at the end of the season, and 108 pitchers will be worth $936. In total, 276 players will earn $3,120 in a 12-team league where each team has a $260 budget. For now, just think about the $2,184 that those hitters are worth.
When the drafted universe of players is used as a baseline, the American League hitting population earns $2,426. An "extra" $242 of value is created by all of the hitters who play in the American League. This not only includes free agents that a league picks up but it also includes free agents who will, in all likelihood, never grace a Roto team's roster. Looking at this another way, an extra 11.5% of value is available above and beyond what is drafted in an average league. As we all know, most of this value will wind up on our rosters. In other words, Reggie Willits and Jack Cust have long been rostered in A.L. only leagues this season. Miguel Cairo is still a free agent, so I suppose if he has one of those weeks where he goes 4-for-5 and steals two bases my league will miss out. But these are extreme exceptions. For the most part, leagues attempt to devour all of the stats they can.
Now, if you decide to do what sas4 is suggesting and assign that same $2,184 to the best 168 hitters in hindsight, the American League hitting population now earns "only" $2,235. A mere $51, or 2.3%, of value is available above and beyond the best 168 hitters in the American League.
That's the broad view, which is very difficult to fathom. Let's look, instead, as Alex and I like to do, at groupings of hitters.
Top 10 A.L. Hitters 2006: Draft Value vs. "Season" Value
| Draft Rank | Player | Draft | "Season" $ | "Season" Rank |
| 1 | Carl Crawford | $44 | $42 | 1 |
| 2 | Derek Jeter | $42 | $39 | 2 |
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero | $39 | $36 | 3 |
| 4 | Ichiro Suzuki | $37 | $35 | 4 |
| 5 | Jermaine Dye | $36 | $34 | 5 |
| 6 | David Ortiz | $34 | $32 | 6 |
| 7 | Vernon Wells | $34 | $31 | 8 |
| 8 | Justin Morneau | $33 | $31 | 7 |
| 9 | Alex Rodriguez | $33 | $31 | 9 |
| 10 | Chone Figgins | $31 | $29 | 10 |
As you might imagine, the players on the top get dinged the most by including all hitters, since each HR, each RBI, and each SB is worth less. Even batting average takes it on the chin: the average draft hitter bats .279 while the average of the best 168 hitters bats .282.
11-20 A.L. Hitters 2006: Draft Value vs. "Season" Value
| Draft Rank | Player | Draft | "Season" $ | "Season" Rank |
| 11 | Corey Patterson | $31 | $29 | 13 |
| 12 | Carlos Guillen | $31 | $29 | 11 |
| 13 | Miguel Tejada | $31 | $29 | 12 |
| 14 | Travis Hafner | $30 | $28 | 14 |
| 15 | Paul Konerko | $29 | $27 | 15 |
| 16 | Grady Sizemore | $29 | $27 | 16 |
| 17 | Johnny Damon | $28 | $26 | 17 |
| 18 | Manny Ramirez | $28 | $26 | 18 |
| 19 | Joe Mauer | $27 | $26 | 19 |
| 20 | Jim Thome | $26 | $25 | 20 |
It's the same story in this bracket. A total of $18 is shaved off each player's draft value when the top 168 hitters are used as the baseline.
Remember the numbers from up above? Using draft rosters as a valuation baseline, the American League in 2006 produced an extra $242 of value. Using the top 276 players, the A.L. produced an extra $51 of value. That's a $191 difference.
So far, the top 20 hitters alone have "lost" $41 of value. Another way of looking at this is that 21.5% ($41/$191) is "lost" from the Top 20 hitters when we look at season value versus draft value.
Is there a point where hitters are alike using the two different models?
Of course.
131-140 A.L. Hitters 2006: Draft Value vs. "Season" Value
| Draft Rank | Player | Draft | "Season" $ | "Season" Rank |
| 131 | Jason Tyner | $6 | $6 | 131 |
| 132 | Mike Redmond | $6 | $6 | 132 |
| 133 | Johnny Gomes | $6 | $5 | 137 |
| 134 | Tony Graffanino | $6 | $5 | 134 |
| 135 | Aubrey Huff | $6 | $5 | 133 |
| 136 | Jason Varitek | $6 | $5 | 138 |
| 137 | Alex Gonzalez | $6 | $5 | 139 |
| 138 | Shin-Soo Choo | $6 | $5 | 135 |
| 139 | Chris Gomez | $6 | $5 | 136 |
| 140 | Mike Sweeney | $5 | $5 | 139 |
It's not quite dollar for dollar, but it's pretty close...only a $7 difference between this group using draft dollars and "season" dollars.
Any time you increase the statistics available, you decrease the values across the board on a player-by-player basis. That's because each HR, each RBI, and each SB is worth less.
In the draft example, each home run is worth 33 cents. Using the best player instead, home runs are only worth 31 cents.
That's it.
So, for Nick Punto's 1 HR last year, this is virtually a non-issue. I doubt sas4 is going to fight me over those two cents of value. Frank Thomas' 39 HR is where you can see the difference. Thomas earns $13 for his HR in a draft league, but only $12.07 using the best 276 players to build the formula.
I have to admit that these results surprised me a little. I thought that the contributions of Bobby Abreu, Carlos Lee, Greg Norton, Jason Bartlett, and others would have made the gaps wider and significantly reduced values across the board.
I shouldn't have been surprised, though. What I've been saying all along applies. There are always a handful of surprises on the hitting side, but it's just that: a small fringe of players that we don't buy who wind up putting up serious numbers. Check your FAAB bids to date in 2007 for proof. Jack Cust and Reggie Willits will wind up in the top 276, but that's two players.
What it comes down to is that our guesses for hitters are good. But hitters are also far more predictable. Taking a $1 stab on Pablo Ozuna in the auction isn't crazy and - if Ozuna doesn't produce - we'll take a stab on someone else through FAAB.
I suspect that the pitching numbers are going to tell a dramatically different story, and that there will be some pretty significant gaps between what a Johan Santana is worth using draft dollars versus what he's worth using best player theory. I'll look at that in my next post.
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