2012 A.L. First Basemen

The story coming into 2012 was that first base was going to be a monster position in the American League. Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder were going to take an already strong position and make it even stronger. An embarrassment of riches was going to be ours for the taking.

As typically happens, the expectation did not match the reality.

Top 10 A.L. First Basemen 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Miguel Cabrera	$40	39	1	39	40	39	39	$36
2	Prince Fielder	$29	31	-2	31	32	30	33	$34
3	Albert Pujols	$27	40	-13	39	41	40	40	$35
4	Mark Trumbo	$22	11	11	7	14	12	11	$20
5	Paul Konerko	$21	25	-4	21	26	28	23	$26
6	Adrian Gonzalez	$19	35	-16	36	36	33	38	$36
7	Kendrys Morales	$17	10	6	9	9	13	8
8	Adam Dunn	$16	14	2	11	16	15	13	-$2
9	Mark Teixeira	$16	29	-13	29	30	29	28	$24
10	Justin Morneau	$16	7	9	7	7	7	11	$2
	Average	$22	24	-2	23	25	25	24	$21

Did these guys blow the doors off of previous first base earnings?

Top 10 A.L. First Basemen: 2009-2011

Year	$	Sal	+/-	Prior Year
2011	$24	21	3	19
2010	$21	20	1	18
2009	$20	23	-4	23

Not only did they not "blow the doors off," but last year's first basemen couldn't even out earn their 2011 counterparts.

Some of that, of course, are the elite disappointments. Pujols and Gonzalez were both expected to provide $35-40 worth of value and both fell well short. But even if Pujols and Gonzalez had met expectations, this group would have earned $25 per player. Strong earnings, yes, but not the earth shattering numbers that you would have expected based on the hype.

We shouldn't have been too surprised at this result. First basemen are historically overpaid in Roto, and 2012 would turn out to be no exception.

10 Most Expensive A.L. First Basemen, 2012

#	Player	$	Sal	+/-	CBS	LABR	TW	PK	2011
1	Albert Pujols	$27	40	-13	39	41	40	40	$35
2	Miguel Cabrera	$40	39	1	39	40	39	39	$36
3	Adrian Gonzalez	$19	35	-16	36	36	33	38	$36
4	Prince Fielder	$29	31	-2	31	32	30	33	$34
5	Mark Teixeira	$16	29	-13	29	30	29	28	$24
6	Eric Hosmer	$14	27	-13	28	25	28	26	$23
7	Paul Konerko	$21	25	-4	21	26	28	23	$26
8	Adam Lind	$8	17	-9	16	15	19	17	$16
9	Adam Dunn	$16	14	2	11	16	15	13	-$2
10	Carlos Pena	$7	14	-6	11	13	17	12	$17
	Average	$20	27	-7	26	27	28	27	$24

A seven dollar loss per player sounds bad, but compared to recent history is an improvement; A.L. first basemen have only returned 66 cents on the dollar from 2009-2011, or the worst return of any position in either the American League or the National League in that time.

To its credit, the expert market knows this and doesn't go overboard. Instead, they respond to the perceived quality at the position by flattening the price on the hitters at the top. In particular, CBS - once a league of crazy, over-the-top prices on the top tier - hangs back. They don't crack $40 on Pujols and are really conservative on Konerko, Dunn, and Pena. This pays off on Konerko and Pena.

The disappointments at the position aren't one size fits all. Pujols and Gonzalez fail, but potential phenom Hosmer does as well.

One reason this group tanks is that there isn't a lot of speed at the position. An outfielder that fails as a hitter but still manages to provide 15-20 steals still has some value. A lead-legged first baseman that can't run and that doesn't hit is going to be nearly worthless.

Never get attracted to the idea that a position is "strong" or "weak." Changes in the landscape don't happen overnight, even if an elite hitter or two is switching leagues. It's OK to pay big bucks for Pujols; just don't pay well over his market value because he's a new fish.