Miguel Cabrera and The Triple Crown

At some point around the All-Star Break, it seemed like a fait accompli that Mike Trout was going to win the American League MVP award. He was having a banner year, and while a few other American Leaguers were having excellent seasons as well, Trout was head, shoulders, neck, and torso above the rest of the pack.

But something funny happened on the way to Trout's coronation: Miguel Cabrera put himself in line for a legitimate chance to win the Triple Crown.

In and of itself, this is a big deal. Only 13 hitters in the post-1901 "modern" era of baseball have won the Triple Crown, with the last winner all the way back in 1967 (Carl Yastrzemski). It is undoubtedly a rare accomplishment. And make no mistake, winning the Triple Crown is an accomplishment. Putting aside the dubious value of RBI for a moment, finishing 1st in home runs, RBI, and batting average all in the same year would be a big deal. If Cabrera does manage to win all three categories, we should all bask in the rarity of his accomplishment and take the time to applaud one of baseball's elite hitters.

What we shouldn't do is take Cabrera's accomplishment and use it as an absolute measure of his value. A popular argument I've seen repeatedly on Cabrera's behalf over the last couple of weeks goes "if Cabrera wins the Triple Crown, he HAS to win the MVP. How can he not?"

Even if Cabrera does win the Triple Crown, it will be one of the weakest offensive seasons of a Triple Crown winner ever.

Triple Crown Winners by Metrics: 1901-Current (plus Cabrera)

Year	Player	oWAR	Rank	oWAR Lead	OPS+	Rank	OPS+ Lead	RC	wOBA
2012	Miguel Cabrera	7.2	2nd	(0.9)	165	2nd	-2	133	.415
1967	Carl Yastrzemski	9.5	1st	2.6	193	1st	6	144	.454
1966	Frank Robinson	8.6	1st	2.0	198	1st	37	145	.447
1956	Mickey Mantle	10.4	1st	4.7	210	1st	39	166	.502
1947	Ted Williams	9.6	1st	4.2	205	1st	49	170	.507
1942	Ted Williams	9.7	1st	3.8	216	1st	53	167	.522
1937	Joe Medwick	7.9	1st	1.2	180	1st	8	153	.467
1934	Lou Gehrig	9.9	1st	1.9	206	1st	20	181	.509
1933	Jimmie Foxx	9.0	1st	1.6	200	1st	24	169	.508
1933	Chuck Klein	7.6	1st	0.8	176	1st	4	148	.468
1925	Rogers Hornsby	10.1	1st	4.9	209	1st	49	174	.544
1922	Rogers Hornsby	11.2	1st	4.7	207	1st	49	186	.521
1909	Ty Cobb	9.2	1st	1.0	194	1st	23	138	.478
1901	Nap Lajoie	8.2	1st	3.1	200	1st	44	159	.504

The first six columns are courtesy of Baseball Reference; the last one is from Fangraphs.

I used oWAR from Baseball Reference instead of overall rWAR just to show that even with defense taken out, Cabrera is still behind Trout. He's also behind him in adjusted OPS. Since this isn't a metric that takes total plate appearances into account, it isn't completely fair. This is one of the reasons I included Fangraphs raw RC (not RC+) stat as well. Here, Cabrera is ahead of Trout, as Trout has an RC of 121.

Why the historical comparison? After all, Cabrera isn't in the running for MVP of A Bygone Era.

The comparison isn't listed here to disparage Cabrera, but rather to show how dominant most of the other Triple Crown winners were within the context of their era. Even if you don't take defense and/or base running into account (and I'm not saying that you should do that), Cabrera is arguably having the weakest Triple Crown or potential Triple Crown season ever. He's scraping by in HR and batting average. He has a pretty clear lead in RBI, but then that's the most dubious statistic of the big three in terms of determining a player's actual value.

I don't feel quite as strongly as the sabermetric crowd does about Trout's candidacy. I do believe that Trout is the MVP, but also think a case can be made for Cabrera. If you don't believe in the base running/defensive metrics or if you think the value of those metrics are overblown, then there is at least a case to be made for Cabrera. I don't believe this, but would certainly concede that the fielding metrics are far from perfect and that an argument could be made on Cabrera's behalf using this logic.

However, the argument that Cabrera has to win the MVP if he wins the Triple Crown is a weak one. He's not dominating the American League with his bat. He might be the best hitter in the A.L., but he isn't having a signature season. Putting additional value on Cabrera finishing 1st in HR, RBI and batting average when these leads are marginal is a false argument.