Sunday, September 30, 2012

A.L. FAAB Log: October 1, 2012

The Blue Jays have intimated that Hechavarria has the inside track on the team's second base job heading into Spring Training next year. That probably doesn't make him a $10 keep (this is a non-contender's bid) unless he runs like he did in the minors in 2011 (18 SB). It's far more likely that the Jays bring in a free agent import, either to start or to caddy Hechavarria while he gets that water out from behind his ears.

Ending the season with honor. These bids come from a non-contender that can play the spoiler role in stolen bases for one of the teams tied for first. Lillibridge is probably his best bet: Figgins hasn't run much this year and Iglesias still can't steal first. But the bids are appreciated by this contender and the two other contenders who could be impacted by this move.

Koji Uehara $4. Other bid $3.
Tazawa, Hunter, and Uehara replace Justin Verlander, David Price, and Steven Johnson for the 4th place team. I thought there might be more moves dumping starting pitchers that aren't going to pitch again in 2012 for either other starters or for "safe" relievers but the starting pitchers out there this week are brutal. Bruce Chen might be the best option available and no I'm not kidding. The 4th place team has a four win lead on the next squad and that squad will have to run the table and have the 4th place team get shut out to even pull the tie. There's nothing for the 4th place squad to gain/lose in ERA or gain in WHIP, so this move is more to try and acquire the random win as opposed to anything else. The $3 bid on Uehara comes from one of the teams tied for 1st, so he was shooting for some good wins/qualitatives in the last three days.

There was one contender that took a shot on a starting pitcher, though...

David Huff. Claimed by 3rd, 2nd, and 11th place teams.
For the purposes of waiver claims, the standings from Saturday - not Sunday - are used. So even though the team in "3rd" is now actually tied for 1st and the team in "2nd" is now in 3rd, that's how the waiver claims work. The team in 11th didn't get Huff because he was the team that waived him. Got all that? I'm not I do either...thank God our league's constitution was cobbled together by a bunch of lawyers! The winning claimant dumped Erasmo Ramirez, who is done for 2012. This team has a safe ERA lead and a fairly safe WHIP lead and is making the wins play with Huff. Relief wins are always an open question, but as I mentioned above the starting pitchers out there are bad. Might as well make the relatively safe play.

Finally, another bid from a non-contender that won't impact the standings. Aceves is a talented pitcher but he either needs a change of scenery, manager, or attitude. He looked like a mess this year, and I'm not going to waste my time or yours trying to crawl into Aceves' head pretending to figure it out. He's not a keep at $10 unless he's closing, which seems incredibly unlikely.

Once again, the team tied for first is trying to protect his average by waiving George Kottaras. The hope is that Cervelli doesn't play. The batting average race heading into the last three days:

9th place team: .2685
1st place team: .2675 (79.5 points overall)
1st place team: .2672 (79.5)
3rd place team: .2671 (78)

Batting average is probably going to decide the league.

Hank Conger. Claimed by 12th place team
I doubt Conger is a $10 freeze next year, but then he's never received a real opportunity in Los Angeles of Anaheim. A lot depends on what happens with Chris Iannetta's $5MM option. The Angels could always decline, but that seems affordable enough so they might just keep Iannetta and give Conger a shot at the job. Or maybe they won't. See what I mean? This is all fairly uncertain. But then as far as waiver claims go this isn't a bad one. Nothing ventured and all that.

Samuel Deduno. Claimed by 11th place team
This team is still scrambling to make innings, but there's a good chance Deduno doesn't pitch this week due to his eye issues. It's looking more and more like this team's not making innings will not impact the standings, though.

Matt Thornton. Claimed by 8th place team
Maybe Thornton is a closer at $10 next year. Maybe he isn't. Again, as far as waiver claims go this is harmless.

Hector Noesi. Claimed by 6th place team
As a waiver claim in this league Noesi gets a cheap salary, but what an absolute mess. He'd have to have an incredible spring to be worth keeping even at $3-4.

Mark Teixeira. Claimed by 4th place team
The non-contenders didn't claim him because of his $39 salary. The other contenders didn't claim him because his salary didn't fit under the cap; the 4th place team had to waive Verlander and Price to make this fit. Teixeira is supposed to play beginning tomorrow and this team needs four home runs to pick up two points. Maybe Tex does nothing but it's worth the shot when there is no tomorrow.

Eric Chavez. Claimed by 2nd place team
He's dumping Alexi Casilla for Chavez, so the play here is probably defending his tight HR lead (he's three up on the 4th place team and one up on the 5th place squad) and his batting average (see above). Chavez might not play that much if Tex is healthy, but then that's probably part of the point. This only backfires if this team loses ground in steals and Casilla runs; he's currently three up on the next team.

Octavio Dotel. Claimed by 1st place team
Dotel replaces Scott Downs. This is probably a wins play, albeit one on the slimmest of margins.

Once again everyone, I had a ton of fun doing this. See you in 2013.

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