Thursday, July 05, 2012

Second Half Surgers (?) - Hitters

Last time out, I tried my hand at guessing which pitchers might bounce back in the second half. Today, I thought I'd look at which hitters might bounce back Post All-Star.

Alexei Ramirez 2 HR, 40 RBI, 10 SB, 30 R, .256 BA
Is anything wrong with Ramirez? Not as far as I can tell. His walk rate has dropped, but his swinging rates and contact rates aren't radically different than what they've been in the past. His BABIP and LD% are fairly comparable to last year. The HR/FB% has dropped considerably, but Ramirez infield fly percentage isn't higher, making me think he's not getting under a lot of balls. Ramirez isn't going to hit 20 HR in the second half, but a return to his career HR/FB rate isn't out of the question. I expect a modest bounce back.

Brian McCann 9 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB, 24 R, .225 BA
McCann's on a pretty typical HR/RBI pace; it's just his batting average that stinks. It appears that this is fueled by a highly uncharacteristic .228 BABIP. I wouldn't be surprised if McCann hit .300 the rest of the way and is an elite catcher Post All-Star.

Michael Young 3 HR, 33 RBI, 2 SB, 38 R, .268 BA
Is Young's bat cooked? No. He is swinging at a lot of pitches out of the zone (35% this year compared to 23% over the course of his career), but he's still stinging the ball when he does make contact. The HR might not quite be there the way they have been in the past, but a .300 batting average with lots of runs and RBI to go with it shouldn't shock anyone.

Ike Davis 11 HR, 45 RBI, 0 SB, 29 R, .200 BA
If you didn't buy on Davis last month, it's probably too late now. In mixed leagues, Davis might be available. If he is, you should know that he put up a 926 OPS in June with six home runs. That might not be sustainable, but Davis' struggles from the beginning of the season look like they're in the rearview mirror...despite a slow start to July.

Jemile Weeks 2 HR, 12 RBI, 11 SB, 32 R, .215 BA
Weeks' bad BABIP luck is well documented by now; what hasn't really been noted is that after a decent start on the basepaths, Weeks really hasn't been running. I'm not sure if he will or not, but the xBABIP makes me think that Weeks is a worthy gamble; just take a shot and hope that the steals come Post All-Star.

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