Saturday, July 28, 2012

Gearing Up: July 30-August 5

Got the Call
Matt Harvey
Those of you in daily leagues can just skip to the next player; Harvey is likely gone unless you're in an eight-team mixer. In weekly leagues, Harvey's MLB debut makes him a must own in N.L. and deeper mixed and someone worth playing the match-ups on in a 12-team mixer. Harvey had it all working last night, with the key being the ability to throw that nasty slider of his for strikes. Command with Harvey's off speed offerings hasn't been consistent in the minors, so this is something to watch. It's more likely that Harvey had a great game than that he suddenly figured out his season-long command issues. Grab him, but know that a 4.00 ERA for a rookie pitcher is always on the table. He's got the dream two-start week on tap with the Giants/Padres on the road, so start him in all formats this week

Starling Marte
I wrote Marte up on Thursday and then he went out and had a big game in his MLB debut. MLB Depth Charts has Alex Presley as the big playing time loser, but I could see Garret Jones and Casey McGehee losing some PT as well. Marte is looking like a must add in all formats.

Rising Up
Ryan Roberts (36% last week/40% this week)
Ooooh look, it's a dead cat bouncing off the pavement! Bad jokes aside, I probably gave Roberts too much of a short shrift when I dismissed his 2012 numbers out of hand. They're not good from a sabermetric perspective, but in Roto, those HR/SB combined with MI/multi-positional eligibility make Roberts somewhat valuable in deeper mixed and A.L.-only formats. Evan Longoria will be back at some point, but Roberts is a better option right now than guys like Jamey Carroll, Brian Dozier and a few other weaker MI starters that I could name.

Got the Call
Travis Snider
Snider kind of, sort of got written up in last week's Gearing Up, but that was really Anthony Gose's entry and Snider deserves at least a paragraph in his own right. The good news is that Snider has mashed in the week he has been up and the better news is that he seems to be the Jays full-time left fielder, with Gose and Rajai Davis in a quasi-platoon in right. If there's a downside, it's that Snider's whiff rate is extremely high. Insert the usual small sample size warning here, but a 40%+ strikeout rate with this production isn't sustainable. Snider's fast start makes him worth a stash in mixed leagues. He won't last long even in standard mixed, so if you want him grab him now.

In the Minors
Chris Parmelee
Parmelee is a Very Important Lesson as to why you shouldn't merely look at late season stats and should also listen to scouts and review long-term data as well. Many assumed that Parmelee would be an inevitable replacement for Justin Morneau at 1B if/when Morneau went down but Parmelee's second time around the Majors has proven difficult. He has mashed in the minors and is probably still on the Twins radar long-term, but can probably be taken off of yours. I have a hard time seeing Parmelee making an impact this year barring a severe Morneau injury.

On the DL
Andrew Bailey
I don't know if Bailey is going to make it back next year, and I'm always reluctant to offer medical opinions. But there is a good lesson involving Bailey and a bad one. The bad lesson is to assume that players who suffer non-related maladies are "injury prone" and are more likely to get hurt than other types of players. Non-related injuries for the most part tend to be random, and Bailey's torn UCL on his thumb had nothing to do with his prior elbow issues. The good lesson is don't trade for injured players

On June 25, one of the contenders in my home league swapped Eric Hosmer, for J.J. Hardy, Andy Pettitte and Andrew Bailey. If Bailey were healthy and saving games I'd have no problem with that return, but without Bailey it doesn't seem like enough for a potential premier talent in Hosmer. The assumption at the time of the trade was that Bailey would be back "soon". Now it looks like August might be the best case for Bailey...and I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox just shut him down. Don't trade for injured players, unless you build the risk into what you're giving up in your trade.

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